3105 Oak Rock Cir · Spring, TX 77373

$140,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,347 sqft · Townhouse public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1982 3,955 sqft lot $104/sqft · 19% below area Est $172k · 19% under $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Selling As-Is. New Roof in 2024. Larger Floor Plan of a 3 bedroom 2 bath Duplex that is ready for its next owner! Whether you are buying as an investment property or Primary Residence this is a great opportunity to bring in your touch. This Duplex is completely tiled throughout, Family room is large with fireplace and opens into kitchen great for entertaining. Kitchen comes with ALL appliances along with a Pantry. Bedrooms are all large and both bathrooms feature dual sinks and walk in closets. Washer & Dryer hookups in home. Plus a Fully Fenced backyard with covered area.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Larger floor plan
• Completely tiled

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• LARGER FLOOR PLAN
• COMPLETELY TILED
• FIREPLACE
• ALL APPLIANCES
• PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 9392% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,400 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.35%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,484
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -18.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-16,243
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-17,924
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,643 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$296 /mo · $3,550/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,422

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21631 S Werrington Way Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1645	$1,900	$1.16	44d	1	1.20mi
2427 Gianna Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1777	$1,826	$1.03	7d	1	1.20mi
21407 Palma Grove Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,000	$0.71	13d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $140,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $140,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $140,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $140,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $140,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-04-26
   price $1,395
7. 2026-04-02
   price $1,450
8. 2026-04-01
   price $140,000 583-char remark

   Show marketing remark (583 chars)

   Selling As-Is. New Roof in 2024. Larger Floor Plan of a 3 bedroom 2 bath Duplex that is ready for its next owner! Whether you are buying as an investment property or Primary Residence this is a great opportunity to bring in your touch. This Duplex is completely tiled throughout, Family room is large with fireplace and opens into kitchen great for entertaining. Kitchen comes with ALL appliances along with a Pantry. Bedrooms are all large and both bathrooms feature dual sinks and walk in closets. Washer & Dryer hookups in home. Plus a Fully Fenced backyard with covered area.

9. 2026-03-05
   listed $1,475

   Show marketing remark (583 chars)

   Selling As-Is. New Roof in 2024. Larger Floor Plan of a 3 bedroom 2 bath Duplex that is ready for its next owner! Whether you are buying as an investment property or Primary Residence this is a great opportunity to bring in your touch. This Duplex is completely tiled throughout, Family room is large with fireplace and opens into kitchen great for entertaining. Kitchen comes with ALL appliances along with a Pantry. Bedrooms are all large and both bathrooms feature dual sinks and walk in closets. Washer & Dryer hookups in home. Plus a Fully Fenced backyard with covered area.

10. 2026-03-05
    listed $149,900 Active 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    Selling As-Is. New Roof in 2024. Larger Floor Plan of a 3 bedroom 2 bath Duplex that is ready for its next owner! Whether you are buying as an investment property or Primary Residence this is a great opportunity to bring in your touch. This Duplex is completely tiled throughout, Family room is large with fireplace and opens into kitchen great for entertaining. Kitchen comes with ALL appliances along with a Pantry. Bedrooms are all large and both bathrooms feature dual sinks and walk in closets. Washer & Dryer hookups in home. Plus a Fully Fenced backyard with covered area.

11. 2025-12-21
    historical
12. 2025-11-18
    listed $130,000 Active
13. 2019-04-19
    historical
14. 2019-04-11
    listed $110,000 Active
15. 2017-09-25
    soldstatus
16. 2015-03-25
    historical
17. 2015-03-09
    listed $85,000 Active
18. 1988-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,550 · $296/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,550 · $296/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$3,550
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,578
• − Management: −$1,578
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$20
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5
• After-tax cash flow: $2,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-98.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $1,395 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $1,450 HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed for Rent $1,475 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2019-04-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-04-11 Listed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2017-09-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-03-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-03-09 Listed $85,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,550 · -20.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.