The Mockingbird II Plan · La Marque, TX 77568

$242,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,689 sqft · SingleFamily · 412 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Mockingbird II displays an excellent use of space and packs a lot of home into its smartly designed single-story layout. A covered front porch leads into the foyer with access to the mud room off the garage. A dining area connects the expansive family room and kitchen at the rear of the home. The primary bedroom and bathroom are separate from the three secondary bedrooms, which share a bathroom and laundry room at the back of the home. A covered rear patio makes for the perfect outdoor entertainment area with options to expand the patio for even more space.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Covered rear patio
• Dining area

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• MUD ROOM
• DINING AREA
• EXPANSIVE FAMILY ROOM
• COVERED REAR PATIO
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINMENT AREA

🏗️ New construction. The $242,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $289,768.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $243k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-121 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,136 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Hitchcock ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #628 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 661 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 412 days — a 12% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $213,831 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 412 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.79%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,768
• List price: $242,990
• Delta: -16.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
648 Burlina Rd	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-1%)	1mo	$249,990	$149	96
652 Burlina Rd	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,716 (+2%)	1mo	$255,190	$149	95
644 Burlina Rd	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,716 (+2%)	1mo	$275,990	$161	94
805 Apple Blossom Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,501 (-11%)	1mo	$269,990	$180	69
1074 Garnet Star Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,732 (+2%)	0mo	$295,990	$171	65
1106 Radiant Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (-8%)	1mo	$265,990	$172	58
996 Camellia Hills Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,526 (-10%)	1mo	$239,000	$157	57
1341 Blue Moon Ln	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,872 (+11%)	1mo	$295,990	$158	56
1109 Black Rail St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,526 (-10%)	1mo	$245,000	$161	56
862 Sand Crab Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,873 (+11%)	1mo	$255,000	$136	54
1233 Sacred Light Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,491 (-12%)	0mo	$252,990	$170	50
1305 Blue Moon Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,491 (-12%)	1mo	$257,990	$173	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-52,321
• Equity at exit: $43,205

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-45,715
• Equity at exit: $25,054

Cash invested: $81,135 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 661
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,382 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,347/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $-121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,535

Max offer price $272,274

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $79	-5% $-21	+0% $-121	+5% $-221	+10% $-321
Rent	-10% $-309	-5% $-215	+0% $-121	+5% $-27	+10% $67
Rate	-1.0pp $25	-0.5pp $-47	base $-121	+0.5pp $-196	+1.0pp $-272

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,442
• Closing costs: $8,693
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
453 Maple Bend Ln La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,071	$1.11	21d	1	0.60mi
8208 Ash Rd Texas City, TX	4.0	2.0	1701	$1,795	$1.06	45d	1	1.43mi
14403 Daniel Shores Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	3.0–3.5	1872	$2,600	$1.39	0d	12	1.45mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $242,990 Active 412 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $242,990 Active 409 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $242,990 Active 408 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $242,990 Active 407 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $242,990 Active 406 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $242,990 Active 404 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $242,990 Active 403 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $242,990 Active 400 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $242,990 Active 399 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $242,990 Active 398 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $242,990 Active 395 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $242,990 Active 394 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $242,990 Active 393 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $242,990 Active 392 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $242,990 Active 391 DOM
16. 2025-08-05
    price $242,990 567-char remark

    Show marketing remark (567 chars)

    The Mockingbird II displays an excellent use of space and packs a lot of home into its smartly designed single-story layout. A covered front porch leads into the foyer with access to the mud room off the garage. A dining area connects the expansive family room and kitchen at the rear of the home. The primary bedroom and bathroom are separate from the three secondary bedrooms, which share a bathroom and laundry room at the back of the home. A covered rear patio makes for the perfect outdoor entertainment area with options to expand the patio for even more space.

17. 2025-07-23
    price $240,990 567-char remark

    Show marketing remark (567 chars)

    The Mockingbird II displays an excellent use of space and packs a lot of home into its smartly designed single-story layout. A covered front porch leads into the foyer with access to the mud room off the garage. A dining area connects the expansive family room and kitchen at the rear of the home. The primary bedroom and bathroom are separate from the three secondary bedrooms, which share a bathroom and laundry room at the back of the home. A covered rear patio makes for the perfect outdoor entertainment area with options to expand the patio for even more space.

18. 2025-05-06
    listed $235,990 Active 567-char remark

    Show marketing remark (567 chars)

    The Mockingbird II displays an excellent use of space and packs a lot of home into its smartly designed single-story layout. A covered front porch leads into the foyer with access to the mud room off the garage. A dining area connects the expansive family room and kitchen at the rear of the home. The primary bedroom and bathroom are separate from the three secondary bedrooms, which share a bathroom and laundry room at the back of the home. A covered rear patio makes for the perfect outdoor entertainment area with options to expand the patio for even more space.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,582
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,232
• − Property taxes: −$4,347
• − Insurance: −$1,449
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,287
• − Management: −$2,287
• − Depreciation: −$8,430
• Taxable loss: −$6,448
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,548
• After-tax cash flow: $97/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances interior aesthetics and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances interior aesthetics and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hitchcock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823310
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,041
• Composite: 25.5/100
• National rank: #7439
• State rank: #628 of 826 in TX

Livability — La Marque

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1136
• US rank: #20037

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Marque, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 23,083
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $242,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $240,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-06 Listed $235,990 Zillow