15070 SE 104th Ct · The Villages, FL 34491

$179,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1978 0.31 ac lot $170/sqft · 73% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in Lake Weir Harbor Estates in Summerfield, this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home with land offers comfortable living with plenty of space inside and out. The home features a bright living area, functional kitchen with ample cabinetry, and a spacious primary bedroom with walk-in closet. Enjoy Florida living year-round in the large, enclosed Florida room, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Outside, the property includes a covered carport, extended driveway, and a detached garage/workshop, providing plenty of room for vehicles, tools, or hobbies. The home also offers a dedicated laundry area and additional enclosed porch space, giving flexibility for storage or extra living space. Situated on its own land in a quiet neighborhood near Lake Weir, this property provides easy access to boating, fishing, and outdoor recreation while still being conveniently located near shopping, dining, and The Villages. A great opportunity for full-time living, seasonal use, or investment.

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Quiet neighborhood
• 0.31 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE ENCLOSED FLORIDA ROOM
• COVERED CARPORT
• DETACHED GARAGE WORKSHOP
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY AREA
• EASY ACCESS TO BOATING
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harbour View Elementary School (math 41% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 819 students, 71% FRL); Lake Weir Middle School (math 37% / reading 33%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,207 students, 76% FRL); Lake Weir High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,483 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 712 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $179k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,890 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.04%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,612
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: 72.76%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15050 SE 105th Ave	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,068 (+1%)	4mo	$135,000	$126	92
10340 SE 148th Pl	0.22mi	2/1.0	1,012 (-4%)	7mo	$95,000	$94	72
10175 SE Sunset Harbor Rd	0.18mi	2/2.0	920 (-13%)	12mo	$100,000	$109	60
10885 SE Timucuan Rd	0.46mi	2/1.0	936 (-11%)	8mo	$109,000	$116	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,021
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $26,359
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34491

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 712
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,872 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,058/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $377

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,394

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $479	-5% $428	+0% $377	+5% $327	+10% $276
Rent	-10% $230	-5% $304	+0% $377	+5% $451	+10% $525
Rate	-1.0pp $468	-0.5pp $423	base $377	+0.5pp $331	+1.0pp $284

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10326 SE 162nd Place Rd Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1419	$2,300	$1.62	15d	1	1.19mi
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Unit A08 Summerfield, FL	2.0	1.5	1200	$2,000	$1.67	22d	1	1.19mi
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Summerfield, FL	2.0	1.5–2.0	1244	$1,770	$1.42	22d	2	1.25mi
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Unit H52 Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.5	1224	$1,440	$1.18	22d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,000 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $179,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $179,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $179,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $179,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $179,000 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-03-05
    listed $179,000 Active 1012-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1012 chars)

    Located in Lake Weir Harbor Estates in Summerfield, this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home with land offers comfortable living with plenty of space inside and out. The home features a bright living area, functional kitchen with ample cabinetry, and a spacious primary bedroom with walk-in closet. Enjoy Florida living year-round in the large, enclosed Florida room, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Outside, the property includes a covered carport, extended driveway, and a detached garage/workshop, providing plenty of room for vehicles, tools, or hobbies. The home also offers a dedicated laundry area and additional enclosed porch space, giving flexibility for storage or extra living space. Situated on its own land in a quiet neighborhood near Lake Weir, this property provides easy access to boating, fishing, and outdoor recreation while still being conveniently located near shopping, dining, and The Villages. A great opportunity for full-time living, seasonal use, or investment.

11. 2019-09-27
    soldstatus $93,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,058 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,486 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$428/yr (+$36/mo · 40.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,464
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$1,058
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,797
• − Management: −$1,797
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $1,683
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$404
• After-tax cash flow: $4,125/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,318
• Household income: $66,679
• Rent vs Own: 13.2% rent · 86.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 256.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.67%
• Current HPI: 200.0792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+92.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,058 · +26.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.