2017 Pebble Creek Dr · Brandon, MS 39042

$268,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 2014 5,227 sqft lot $168/sqft · 9% below area Est $289k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath home located in the desirable Stonebridge subdivision! This well-maintained property offers a functional, open layout with spacious living areas and abundant natural light throughout--perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite features a double vanity and a spacious walk-in shower. Outside you will find a peaceful backyard setting, ideal for relaxing or hosting guests. Residents of Stonebridge also enjoy access to community amenities, including a pool, playground, and clubhouse. Schedule a showing with your Realtor today!

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $268k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($504/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.2% in Brandon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#3 in MS, #1,514 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 302 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,906 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.67%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,724
• List price: $268,000
• Delta: -7.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
409 Sand Stone Pl	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,633 (+2%)	5mo	$244,000	$149	88
217 Stonebridge Blvd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,628 (+2%)	5mo	$269,900	$166	86
309 Flagstone Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-5%)	2mo	$265,000	$175	85
509 Stone Brook Pl	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (0%)	2mo	$289,999	$181	82
538 Stone Brook Pl	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,555 (-3%)	1mo	$284,999	$183	80
505 Stone Brook Pl	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (0%)	6mo	$289,999	$181	78
244 Stonebridge Blvd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,531 (-4%)	0mo	$270,000	$176	78
503 Stone Brook Pl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+5%)	5mo	$292,999	$175	76
535 Stone Brook Pl	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+5%)	6mo	$292,999	$175	72
507 Stone Brook Pl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,750 (+9%)	4mo	$299,999	$171	69
534 Stone Brook Pl	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,750 (+9%)	2mo	$299,999	$171	68
115 Lennox Pl	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+9%)	3mo	$275,000	$158	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-30,865
• Equity at exit: $39,960

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $20,765
• Equity at exit: $23,172

Cash invested: $75,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39042

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,289 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,405
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,991/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,236

Max offer price $268,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,000
• Closing costs: $8,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
610 Diamond Way Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,595	$1.43	43d	1	0.27mi
604 King Richard Rd Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,125	$0.98	14d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $268,000 Pending 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $268,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $268,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $268,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $268,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $268,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-05-12
   price $268,000 596-char remark

   Show marketing remark (596 chars)

   Welcome to this charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath home located in the desirable Stonebridge subdivision! This well-maintained property offers a functional, open layout with spacious living areas and abundant natural light throughout--perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite features a double vanity and a spacious walk-in shower. Outside you will find a peaceful backyard setting, ideal for relaxing or hosting guests. Residents of Stonebridge also enjoy access to community amenities, including a pool, playground, and clubhouse. Schedule a showing with your Realtor today!

8. 2026-03-26
   listed $274,900 Active 596-char remark

   Show marketing remark (596 chars)

   Welcome to this charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath home located in the desirable Stonebridge subdivision! This well-maintained property offers a functional, open layout with spacious living areas and abundant natural light throughout--perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite features a double vanity and a spacious walk-in shower. Outside you will find a peaceful backyard setting, ideal for relaxing or hosting guests. Residents of Stonebridge also enjoy access to community amenities, including a pool, playground, and clubhouse. Schedule a showing with your Realtor today!

9. 2023-03-10
   soldstatus Closed 365-char remark

   Show marketing remark (365 chars)

   100% USDA Financing Available!! Check out this move in ready 3 bed 2 bath freshly painted home in desired Stonebridge subdivision. There is a private fenced in back yard that backs up to the woods. Bedrooms are spacious and the 2 car garage offers lots of storage space as well. Neighborhood amenities include a pool and a clubhouse with a gym and playground .

10. 2023-03-10
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    100% USDA Financing Available!! Check out this move in ready 3 bed 2 bath freshly painted home in desired Stonebridge subdivision. There is a private fenced in back yard that backs up to the woods. Bedrooms are spacious and the 2 car garage offers lots of storage space as well. Neighborhood amenities include a pool and a clubhouse with a gym and playground .

11. 2023-02-18
    status Pending 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    100% USDA Financing Available!! Check out this move in ready 3 bed 2 bath freshly painted home in desired Stonebridge subdivision. There is a private fenced in back yard that backs up to the woods. Bedrooms are spacious and the 2 car garage offers lots of storage space as well. Neighborhood amenities include a pool and a clubhouse with a gym and playground .

12. 2023-02-16
    listed $262,300 Active 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    100% USDA Financing Available!! Check out this move in ready 3 bed 2 bath freshly painted home in desired Stonebridge subdivision. There is a private fenced in back yard that backs up to the woods. Bedrooms are spacious and the 2 car garage offers lots of storage space as well. Neighborhood amenities include a pool and a clubhouse with a gym and playground .

13. 2022-10-28
    soldstatus Closed
14. 2022-10-28
    soldstatus
15. 2022-09-30
    status Pending
16. 2022-09-16
    listed $249,000 Active
17. 2020-10-21
    soldstatus
18. 2020-10-16
    soldstatus
19. 2020-09-10
    listed $195,000
20. 2014-04-04
    soldstatus
21. 2013-08-30
    listed $154,900
22. 2013-08-20
    historical
23. 2013-05-02
    listed $160,000
24. 2012-12-28
    historical
25. 2012-09-04
    listed $157,000
26. 2011-04-12
    historical
27. 2009-12-30
    listed $159,000
28. 2007-11-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,991 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,991 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,012
• − Property taxes: −$2,991
• − Insurance: −$1,340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,197
• − Management: −$2,197
• − Depreciation: −$7,796
• Taxable loss: −$4,066
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$976
• After-tax cash flow: $1,480/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Brandon

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 79,950
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 39,142
• Household income: $88,597
• Rent vs Own: 17.4% rent · 82.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 474.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.04%
• Current HPI: 172.5248
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.13%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+68.6% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $268,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-26 Listed $274,900 MLSU
• 2023-03-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-03-10 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2023-02-18 Pending — MLSU
• 2023-02-16 Listed $262,300 MLSU
• 2022-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-10-28 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2022-09-30 Pending — MLSU
• 2022-09-16 Listed $249,000 MLSU
• 2020-10-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-10-16 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2020-09-10 Listed $195,000 MLSU
• 2014-04-04 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2013-08-30 Listed $154,900 MLSU
• 2013-08-20 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2013-05-02 Listed $160,000 MLSU
• 2012-12-28 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2012-09-04 Listed $157,000 MLSU
• 2011-04-12 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2009-12-30 Listed $159,000 MLSU
• 2007-11-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,991 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.