435 16th St · San Leon, TX 77539

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Manufactured · 326 Days on market

Built 1996 3,201 sqft lot $110/sqft · 12% below area Est $171k · 12% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This mobile home has 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, huge living area, open concept, new appliances in prime location.

Key facts

• 3,201 sq ft lot
• Built 1996
• Listed 326 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $122 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 1.8% in San Leon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#899 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 664 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 326 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 10419% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 326 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.68%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,098
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -12.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
319 10th St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,368 (0%)	6mo	$174,900	$128	76
518 4th St	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (+14%)	6mo	$210,000	$135	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-21,756
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-29,105
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77539

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 664
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,858 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $847/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,703

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
535 12th St Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,950	$1.56	1d	1	0.25mi
1404 E Bayshore Dr Dickinson, TX	3.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	43d	1	0.37mi
335 6th St Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,850	$1.25	43d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 326 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 325 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 324 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 323 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 321 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 317 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 316 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 315 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,900 Active 312 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 311 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 310 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 309 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 308 DOM
14. 2026-03-11
    listed $1,425
15. 2026-01-21
    status Active 114-char remark

    Show marketing remark (114 chars)

    This mobile home has 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, huge living area, open concept, new appliances in prime location.

16. 2026-01-17
    historical 114-char remark

    Show marketing remark (114 chars)

    This mobile home has 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, huge living area, open concept, new appliances in prime location.

17. 2025-12-30
    historical $1,650
18. 2025-10-21
    price $149,900 114-char remark

    Show marketing remark (114 chars)

    This mobile home has 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, huge living area, open concept, new appliances in prime location.

19. 2025-09-15
    price $154,900 114-char remark

    Show marketing remark (114 chars)

    This mobile home has 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, huge living area, open concept, new appliances in prime location.

20. 2025-08-12
    listed $1,650
21. 2025-07-23
    listed $160,000 Active 114-char remark

    Show marketing remark (114 chars)

    This mobile home has 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, huge living area, open concept, new appliances in prime location.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $847 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,896/yr (+$158/mo · 223.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,291
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$847
• − Insurance: −$5,868
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,783
• − Management: −$1,783
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$748
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$179
• After-tax cash flow: $1,641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Leon

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #899
• US rank: #16159

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Leon, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 49,375
• Household income: $89,111
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 869.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.46%
• Current HPI: 258.0104
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.12%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed for Rent $1,425 HARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-30 Rental Removed $1,650 HARMLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $154,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-12 Listed for Rent $1,650 HARMLS
• 2025-07-23 Listed $160,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+19.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $847 · -34.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.