199 Walnut Cv · Onalaska, TX 77360

$19,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 832 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1990 7,801 sqft lot $8/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 42% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor special near Lake Livingston! Remodel or rebuild opportunity in a quiet lake community. Property is being sold as-is making this an ideal project for investors, builders, or buyers looking for their next renovation opportunity. Located just minutes from Lake Livingston, boat ramps, fishing, and local amenities. With the right vision, this property could be transformed into a great weekend getaway, long-term rental, or full-time residence. Excellent potential in a growing lake area with strong demand for lake community properties.

Key facts

• Lake livingston
• Local amenities
• Fishing access

Tags

• LAKE LIVINGSTON
• PEACEFUL LAKE COMMUNITY
• BOATING ACCESS
• FISHING ACCESS
• LOCAL AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $791 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Cap rate 54.0% vs local median 2.9% in Onalaska — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,055 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Onalaska ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Onalaska Jr/Sr High (math 48% / reading 55%, grade D+, #478 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 527 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 350 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17 of equity ($138 loan paydown + $-121 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (49%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $19,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 53.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 170.29%
• DSCR: 8.58
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $56,576
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
305 Red Oak	0.33mi	2/1.5	784 (-6%)	14mo	$99,900	$127	62
593 Magnolia Park	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	784 (-6%)	18mo	$53,000	$68	57
407 S Canyon Dr Dr	0.28mi	2/1.0	728 (-12%)	14mo	$35,000	$48	50
230 Holly Dr	0.51mi	2/1.0	784 (-6%)	16mo	$50,000	$64	50
218 Tallow St	0.73mi	2/1.0	888 (+7%)	10mo	$215,900	$243	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.84×
• Total profit: $49,241
• Equity at exit: $5,180

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.71×
• Total profit: $109,819
• Equity at exit: $5,767

Cash invested: $5,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77360

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 350
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,189 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$104
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $335/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $791

Break-even live

Break-even rent $188

Max offer price $19,900

Occupancy floor 28%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,975
• Closing costs: $597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
132 Broken Arrow Onalaska, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	43d	1	0.58mi
120 Farm to Market Road 356 Unit 4 Onalaska, TX	2.0	1.0	754	$875	$1.16	43d	1	0.95mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-17
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $19,900 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-20
   price $29,000
4. 2026-03-05
   listed $39,000 Active
5. 2026-02-11
   historical
6. 2026-02-09
   listed $50,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $335 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $364 · $30/mo
• Expected delta: +$29/yr (+$2/mo · 8.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,268
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,115
• − Property taxes: −$335
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,141
• − Management: −$1,141
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$579
• Taxable income: $9,761
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,343
• After-tax cash flow: $7,146/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onalaska ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833690
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,882
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3616
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Onalaska

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1055
• US rank: #18716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Onalaska, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,130

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.61%
• Current HPI: 150.9486
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-42.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $29,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $39,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $50,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+12.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $335 · +14.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.