11501 Hunters Hawk Dr · Brandermill, VA 23838

$300,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,590 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2002 1.37 ac lot $189/sqft · 25% below area Est $399k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PROPERTY CONDITION IN, RANCH WITH 2 CAR ATT. GARAGE 1 ACRE LOT CERAMIC TILE FOYER GREAT ROOM WITH BRICK FIREPLACE AND CATHEDRAL CEILING

Key facts

• 1.37 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2002

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage; Driveway (paved)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Composition shingle roof; Built as actual year (year built details available)
• Exterior features: Deck; Paved driveway

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; One bathroom with tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Main level primary bedroom; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $770 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.7% in Brandermill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#94 in VA, #3,055 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $174k; list at $300k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $300,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.99%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $399,069
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -24.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11841 Bechwood Forest Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,808 (+14%)	14mo	$422,000	$233	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $371
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $63,301
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23838

• Home prices YoY: -25.9%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,421 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$235 /mo · $2,820/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$718
• Net cashflow: $770

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,447

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-06
   historical $300,000 666-char remark
2. 2004-05-21
   soldstatus $174,000 135-char remark

   Show marketing remark (135 chars)

   PROPERTY CONDITION IN, RANCH WITH 2 CAR ATT. GARAGE 1 ACRE LOT CERAMIC TILE FOYER GREAT ROOM WITH BRICK FIREPLACE AND CATHEDRAL CEILING

3. 2004-05-21
   soldstatus $174,000

   Show marketing remark (135 chars)

   PROPERTY CONDITION IN, RANCH WITH 2 CAR ATT. GARAGE 1 ACRE LOT CERAMIC TILE FOYER GREAT ROOM WITH BRICK FIREPLACE AND CATHEDRAL CEILING

4. 2004-04-01
   listed $174,000 135-char remark

   Show marketing remark (135 chars)

   PROPERTY CONDITION IN, RANCH WITH 2 CAR ATT. GARAGE 1 ACRE LOT CERAMIC TILE FOYER GREAT ROOM WITH BRICK FIREPLACE AND CATHEDRAL CEILING

5. 2004-04-01
   listed $174,000

   Show marketing remark (135 chars)

   PROPERTY CONDITION IN, RANCH WITH 2 CAR ATT. GARAGE 1 ACRE LOT CERAMIC TILE FOYER GREAT ROOM WITH BRICK FIREPLACE AND CATHEDRAL CEILING

6. 2004-03-31
   soldstatus $173,927
7. 2003-11-24
   historical
8. 2003-11-24
   historical
9. 2003-11-09
   listed $184,950
10. 2003-11-09
    listed $184,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,820 · $235/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,820 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,055
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$2,820
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,284
• − Management: −$3,284
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable income: $4,635
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,112
• After-tax cash flow: $8,123/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Brandermill

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #94
• US rank: #3055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 56,364
• Population (ZIP): 17,213

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Korean 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.94%
• Current HPI: 257.6855
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+62.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-20 Listed $300,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-05-06 Coming Soon $300,000 CVRMLS
• 2004-05-21 Sold (MLS) $174,000 CVRMLS
• 2004-05-21 Sold (MLS) $174,000 CVRMLS
• 2004-04-01 Listed $174,000 CVRMLS
• 2004-04-01 Listed $174,000 CVRMLS
• 2004-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $173,927 Public Records
• 2003-11-24 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2003-11-24 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2003-11-09 Listed $184,950 CVRMLS
• 2003-11-09 Listed $184,950 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,820 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.