7 Pavilion St · Berkeley, NJ 08757

$299,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1981 5,550 sqft lot Est $320k · 7% under $52/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lakeview Model with New Roof & Covered Patio Welcome home to this well-loved Lakeview model in Holiday City Carefree. This home offers incredible peace of mind with a brand-new roof (1 year old) and a solid foundation, just waiting for your modern updates. Start your day on the welcoming front porch and end it in the spacious eat-in kitchen, the perfect heart for your new home. Step outside to your private covered backyard patio, an ideal retreat for shaded relaxation or outdoor dining regardless of the weather. This home is in good condition and provides a clean canvas to create your dream retirement space. Enjoy the active 55+ lifestyle, low HOA fees, and Jersey Shore proximity. A rare opportunity to gain equity in a fantastic community. Schedule your tour today!Digitally declut

Key facts

• Low hoa fees
• Solid foundation
• Covered patio

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE BACKYARD PATIO
• SPACIOUS EAT-IN KITCHEN
• SOLID FOUNDATION
• LOW HOA FEES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $120 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $269k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Central Regional School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #357 of 472 in NJ (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Regional Middle School (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #279 of 431 statewide, top 66%, 716 students, 37% FRL); Central Regional High School (math 15% / reading 39%, grade F, #312 of 399 statewide, top 79%, 1,606 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 509 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,687/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1010% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $299k implies a 565% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $268,667 (10.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.72%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $320,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25 Spanish Wells St	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,232 (0%)	1mo	$340,000	$276	81
60 Biabou Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,232 (0%)	1mo	$320,000	$260	78
211 Bonaire Dr	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,264 (+3%)	1mo	$305,000	$241	76
1 Miramar Ct	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,232 (0%)	1mo	$335,000	$272	74
83 Cabrillo Blvd	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,232 (0%)	2mo	$335,000	$272	74
13 Greenville Ct	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,328 (+8%)	0mo	$329,900	$248	73
1 Spanish Wells St	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,328 (+8%)	2mo	$285,000	$215	68
419 Costa Mesa Dr	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,232 (0%)	2mo	$299,000	$243	64
17 Palmetto Point St	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,092 (-11%)	2mo	$382,500	$350	59
32 Bonaire Dr	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,124 (-9%)	1mo	$240,100	$214	57
2 Hyannis St	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,328 (+8%)	2mo	$307,000	$231	55
816 Third Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,378 (+12%)	0mo	$480,000	$348	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-40,795
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-25,661
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08757

• Active inventory: 509
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,687 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,092/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$564
• Net cashflow: $120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,535

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $289	-5% $205	+0% $120	+5% $36	+10% $-49
Rent	-10% $-92	-5% $14	+0% $120	+5% $226	+10% $332
Rate	-1.0pp $271	-0.5pp $196	base $120	+0.5pp $43	+1.0pp $-36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1700 New Jersey 37 Unit 112-11 Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1224	$2,299	$1.88	0d	1	0.69mi
501 Bismarck St Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,775	$2.13	45d	1	0.87mi
10 Purnell St Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1232	$2,300	$1.87	0d	1	0.95mi
159 Fort de France Ave Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,475	$1.72	8d	1	1.15mi
2035 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,775	$2.02	0d	3	1.17mi
510 Jamaica Blvd Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1264	$2,500	$1.98	0d	1	1.28mi
150 Farm Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1280	$3,000	$2.34	24d	1	1.35mi
1033 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1250	$2,700	$2.16	0d	1	1.39mi
1732 4th Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1248	$3,500	$2.80	0d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $299,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $325,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $325,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $325,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   price $325,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $310,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $310,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-05-06
    price $325,000 804-char remark

    Show marketing remark (804 chars)

    Lakeview Model with New Roof & Covered Patio Welcome home to this well-loved Lakeview model in Holiday City Carefree. This home offers incredible peace of mind with a brand-new roof (1 year old) and a solid foundation, just waiting for your modern updates. Start your day on the welcoming front porch and end it in the spacious eat-in kitchen, the perfect heart for your new home. Step outside to your private covered backyard patio, an ideal retreat for shaded relaxation or outdoor dining regardless of the weather. This home is in good condition and provides a clean canvas to create your dream retirement space. Enjoy the active 55+ lifestyle, low HOA fees, and Jersey Shore proximity. A rare opportunity to gain equity in a fantastic community. Schedule your tour today!Digitally declut

11. 2026-04-10
    listed $310,000 Active 804-char remark

    Show marketing remark (846 chars)

    Lakeview Model with New Roof & Covered Patio Welcome home to this well-loved Lakeview model in Holiday City Carefree. This home offers incredible peace of mind with a brand-new roof (1 year old) and a solid foundation, just waiting for your modern updates. Start your day on the welcoming front porch and end it in the spacious eat-in kitchen, the perfect heart for your new home. Step outside to your private covered backyard patio, an ideal retreat for shaded relaxation or outdoor dining regardless of the weather. This home is in good condition and provides a clean canvas to create your dream retirement space. Enjoy the active 55+ lifestyle, low HOA fees, and Jersey Shore proximity. A rare opportunity to gain equity in a fantastic community. Schedule your tour today!Digitally decluttered to showcase the home’s full potential

12. 2026-04-10
    listed $310,000 Active 846-char remark

    Show marketing remark (846 chars)

    Lakeview Model with New Roof & Covered Patio Welcome home to this well-loved Lakeview model in Holiday City Carefree. This home offers incredible peace of mind with a brand-new roof (1 year old) and a solid foundation, just waiting for your modern updates. Start your day on the welcoming front porch and end it in the spacious eat-in kitchen, the perfect heart for your new home. Step outside to your private covered backyard patio, an ideal retreat for shaded relaxation or outdoor dining regardless of the weather. This home is in good condition and provides a clean canvas to create your dream retirement space. Enjoy the active 55+ lifestyle, low HOA fees, and Jersey Shore proximity. A rare opportunity to gain equity in a fantastic community. Schedule your tour today!Digitally decluttered to showcase the home’s full potential

13. 1981-04-01
    soldstatus $44,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,092 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,269 · $439/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,176/yr (+$181/mo · 70.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$3,092
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,579
• − Management: −$2,579
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$3,577
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$858
• After-tax cash flow: $2,301/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3402910
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,676
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7422
• State rank: #357 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Berkeley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday City-Berkeley, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,087
• Household income: $58,319
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1010.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -429.32%
• Current HPI: 305.1341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+622.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $325,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $310,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $310,000 MOMLS
• 1981-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $44,990 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,092 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.