1254 Shore Dr · Ashville, AL 35953

$64,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 48 Days on market

Built 1996 0.50 ac lot $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This updated manufactured home features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The living room is open to the kitchen. The kitchen has new appliances inlcuding a gas stove and has a walk in pantry. No carpet anywhere in this home! New LVP flooring throughout most of it. The master bedroom has a spacious walk in closet. The home's interior has been freshly painted. Covered deck overlooks the nice size backyard! Storage building that is wired will remain. Private dock! Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Freshly painted
• New appliances

Tags

• NEW APPLIANCES
• WALK IN PANTRY
• NEW LVP FLOORING
• WALK IN CLOSET
• FRESHLY PAINTED
• COVERED DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Pinedale Shores subdivision; Waterfront frontage approximately 151 feet
• HOA & community: Association with yearly fee ($115) that includes common grounds maintenance; Quarterly garbage fee

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Connected sewer; Electric water heater; Spectrum internet available
• Home design: Siding (other); Existing year built; Half-acre lot (0.5 acres); Flood zone property
• Construction: Pillars/support foundation
• Exterior features: Private dock; Lake/water view; Decks (covered and open)

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Laminate countertops; Dishwasher (built-in); Gas oven; Gas stove; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level; Additional bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Hardwood laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bath on main level; Tub/shower combo and separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Split bedroom floorplan; Ceilings: other (see remarks); Window treatments remain
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on main level; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $917 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.6% vs local median 3.7% in Ashville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#385 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• St Clair County (rural): math 21% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #33 of 129 in AL (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ashville Elementary School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #213 of 627 statewide, top 37%, 506 students, 72% FRL); Ashville High School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #90 of 305 statewide, top 35%, 385 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 41% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 557 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $62,953 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.84%
• DSCR: 4.06
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.64×
• Total profit: $48,017
• Equity at exit: $9,677

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.47×
• Total profit: $117,495
• Equity at exit: $5,611

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35953

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $974/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $917

Break-even live

Break-even rent $739

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $962	-5% $940	+0% $917	+5% $895	+10% $872
Rent	-10% $767	-5% $842	+0% $917	+5% $992	+10% $1,067
Rate	-1.0pp $950	-0.5pp $934	base $917	+0.5pp $900	+1.0pp $883

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4560 Shore Dr Ashville, AL	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,900	$1.36	2d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,900 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,900 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,900 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,900 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,900 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $64,900 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $64,900 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $64,900 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $64,900 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $64,900 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $64,900 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $64,900 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $64,900 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    listed $64,900 Active
15. 2025-09-19
    soldstatus $85,000
16. 2025-08-30
    price $74,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$974
• − Insurance: −$1,827
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,824
• − Management: −$1,824
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $10,708
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,570
• After-tax cash flow: $8,437/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St Clair County
• NCES district ID: 0103062
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $53,324
• Composite: 31.79/100
• National rank: #5887
• State rank: #33 of 129 in AL

Livability — Ashville

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #21873

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,020

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,158 people
• By 2030: 97,008 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 101,615 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 104,537 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 109,350 · +16.1%
• By 2100: 106,785 · +13.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.1) · D 17.6% · R 81.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -63.2pp · 2024: -64.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.1 2020: R+64.0 2016: R+68.6 2012: R+66.1 2008: R+63.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.36%
• Current HPI: 180.043
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-13.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $64,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2025-08-30 Price Changed $74,900 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

-4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $41 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.