163 Colonial Ct · Smithville, NJ 08205

$165,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,110 sqft · Townhouse public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1987 Est $200k · 17% under $242/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• $242 HOA
• Built 1987
• Listed 44 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Finished above-grade area noted (assessor); Total below-grade area reported as zero; Land and improvement assessed values recorded
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $242; HOA covers common area maintenance; Pets allowed with no restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium ownership; Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Estimated year built
• Construction: Block construction; Block foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: Not located in a federal flood zone; No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (natural gas); Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: No basement; Accessible features present

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $187 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.9% in Smithville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#402 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Greater Egg Harbor Regional High School District (suburban): math 16% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #319 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $165k implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.87%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $199,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39 Apache Ct #39	0.22mi	2/1.0	1,110 (0%)	2mo	$189,900	$171	86
2 Navajo Ct #1511	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,091 (-2%)	2mo	$200,000	$183	85
2 Navajo Ct	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,091 (-2%)	2mo	$200,000	$183	85
82 Iroquois Dr #82	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,108 (-0%)	3mo	$199,000	$180	85
26 Iroquois Dr #20	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,110 (0%)	1mo	$167,500	$151	84
5 Navajo Ct #5	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-6%)	0mo	$193,000	$186	80
27 Apache Ct	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,048 (-6%)	2mo	$219,500	$209	77
31 Sussex Pl #31	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,055 (-5%)	3mo	$170,000	$161	75
27 Apache Ct Ct #27	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,048 (-6%)	2mo	$219,500	$209	75
32 Iroquois Dr #32	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,050 (-5%)	1mo	$167,000	$159	74
31 Cherokee Dr #501	0.27mi	2/2.5	1,254 (+13%)	1mo	$220,000	$175	61
35 Mohave Dr	0.33mi	2/2.5	1,254 (+13%)	3mo	$225,000	$179	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-14,614
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $3,402
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08205

• Home prices YoY: -12.3%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,003 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,627/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$242
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,766

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16 Iroquois Dr Galloway, NJ	2.0	1.0	855	$1,800	$2.11	13d	1	0.34mi
31 Arapaho Pl Unit 1 Galloway, NJ	2.0	1.0	855	$2,100	$2.46	13d	1	0.71mi
180 Walden Way Galloway, NJ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1037	$2,319	$2.24	1d	1	0.74mi
64 Mattix Run Galloway, NJ	2.0	1.0	1007	$1,800	$1.79	21d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $242 · $2,904/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $165,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $165,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $165,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $165,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-05-12
    price $165,000
11. 2026-04-28
    price $185,000
12. 2026-04-26
    listed $225,000 Active
13. 2018-01-26
    soldstatus $60,100
14. 2014-09-30
    soldstatus $65,000
15. 2005-09-09
    soldstatus $118,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,627 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,368 · $281/mo
• Expected delta: +$741/yr (+$62/mo · 28.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,627
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,923
• − Management: −$1,923
• − HOA: −$2,904
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$209
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$50
• After-tax cash flow: $2,299/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greater Egg Harbor Regional High School District
• NCES district ID: 3406060
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,324
• Composite: 28.94/100
• National rank: #6629
• State rank: #319 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Smithville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #402
• US rank: #13992

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B- Employment B- Housing B Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smithville, NJ
• County: Atlantic County · 143,611 people
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 28,877
• Household income: $93,370
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 732.0

Population outlook (Atlantic County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 268,948 people
• By 2030: 264,497 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 252,261 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 237,846 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 210,650 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 180,234 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Atlantic

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 50.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: D+6.2 2012: D+17.2 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.12%
• Current HPI: 315.4814
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+39.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-26 Listed $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $60,100 Public Records
• 2014-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2005-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $118,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,627 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.