36 Tanglewood Dr · Carl Junction, MO 64834

$182,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,124 sqft · Other · 17 Days on market

Built 1974

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

So cute and ready for a new owner. Very well maintained home blocks from golf coarse. Large partially fenced yard, huge patio and beautiful wood burning fireplace. This home location will qualify for the USDA home loan. Taxes are county only.

Key facts

• Local amenities
• Spacious layout
• Top-rated schools

Tags

• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• TOP-RATED SCHOOLS
• LOCAL AMENITIES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Freestanding
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Built with metal roof
• Exterior features: Kennel; Chain link fencing; Metal roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Electric cooktop, refrigerator, microwave; Wood-burning fireplace; Laminate flooring; Six total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $182k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($213/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Carl Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#169 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Carl Junction R-I (suburban): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #57 of 324 in MO (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carl Junction Primary K-1 (670 students, 37% FRL); Carl Junction Jr. High (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #99 of 391 statewide, top 26%, 501 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 602 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,000 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.42%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-28,502
• Equity at exit: $27,211

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-23,607
• Equity at exit: $15,779

Cash invested: $51,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64834

• Home prices YoY: -13.2%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$957
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,136/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,428

Max offer price $182,500

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,625
• Closing costs: $5,475
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
604 Briarbrook Dr Carl Junction, MO	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,450	$1.26	44d	1	0.15mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $182,500 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $182,500 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $182,500 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $182,500 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $182,500 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $182,500 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $182,500 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $182,500 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $182,500 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $182,500 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $182,500 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 327-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $182,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,136 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,770 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: +$634/yr (+$53/mo · 55.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,223
• − Property taxes: −$1,136
• − Insurance: −$912
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$5,309
• Taxable loss: −$2,964
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$711
• After-tax cash flow: $925/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carl Junction R-I
• NCES district ID: 2907350
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $53,866
• Composite: 41.04/100
• National rank: #3580
• State rank: #57 of 324 in MO

Livability — Carl Junction

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #9146

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carl Junction, MO
• City population: 10,476
• Population (ZIP): 10,476

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,033 people
• By 2030: 120,091 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 119,297 · -0.6%
• By 2050: 117,705 · -1.9%
• By 2075: 110,402 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 99,719 · -16.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.8) · D 25.9% · R 72.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -33.2pp · 2024: -46.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.8 2020: R+46.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+33.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.68%
• Current HPI: 255.1864
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+134.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $182,500 OGAR
• 2020-02-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-02-13 Sold (MLS) — OGAR
• 2020-01-07 Listed $89,900 OGAR
• 2016-09-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-09-07 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2016-09-07 Sold (MLS) — OGAR
• 2016-07-18 Listed $77,900 SOMO
• 2016-07-18 Listed $77,900 OGAR
• 2009-05-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-03-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,136 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.