2509 Essex St · Old Town, ME 04473

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,126 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 147 Days on market

Built 1967 0.33 ac lot $61/sqft · 33% below area Est $197k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 2509 Essex Street! This 5-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a rare opportunity for investors, contractors, or buyers looking to add value through renovation. With a generous bedroom count and functional layout, the property has strong potential to be transformed into a spacious single-family home or income-producing rental. The house is in need of significant updates and repairs, making it an ideal project for those with vision. Situated in the Orono area, the property is close to local amenities and community conveniences. Bring your tools and creativity!

Key facts

• Strong potential
• Rare opportunity
• Significant updates

Tags

• RARE OPPORTUNITY
• STRONG POTENTIAL
• SIGNIFICANT UPDATES
• LOCAL AMENITIES
• COMMUNITY CONVENIENCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $492 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 6.0% in Old Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#38 in ME, #3,905 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• RSU 26 (suburban): math 88% / reading 90% proficiency, ranked #39 of 112 in ME (top 35%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 440 units permitted in Penobscot County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Penobscot County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.22%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $196,607
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -33.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $10,403
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $49,960
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04473

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,995 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$349 /mo · $4,187/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $492

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,372

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,900 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,900 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 131 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 130 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 129 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 128 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,900 Active 127 DOM
18. 2026-04-29
    price $129,900 571-char remark

    Show marketing remark (571 chars)

    Welcome to 2509 Essex Street! This 5-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a rare opportunity for investors, contractors, or buyers looking to add value through renovation. With a generous bedroom count and functional layout, the property has strong potential to be transformed into a spacious single-family home or income-producing rental. The house is in need of significant updates and repairs, making it an ideal project for those with vision. Situated in the Orono area, the property is close to local amenities and community conveniences. Bring your tools and creativity!

19. 2026-04-24
    price $144,900 571-char remark

    Show marketing remark (571 chars)

    Welcome to 2509 Essex Street! This 5-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a rare opportunity for investors, contractors, or buyers looking to add value through renovation. With a generous bedroom count and functional layout, the property has strong potential to be transformed into a spacious single-family home or income-producing rental. The house is in need of significant updates and repairs, making it an ideal project for those with vision. Situated in the Orono area, the property is close to local amenities and community conveniences. Bring your tools and creativity!

20. 2026-03-24
    price $149,900 571-char remark

    Show marketing remark (571 chars)

    Welcome to 2509 Essex Street! This 5-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a rare opportunity for investors, contractors, or buyers looking to add value through renovation. With a generous bedroom count and functional layout, the property has strong potential to be transformed into a spacious single-family home or income-producing rental. The house is in need of significant updates and repairs, making it an ideal project for those with vision. Situated in the Orono area, the property is close to local amenities and community conveniences. Bring your tools and creativity!

21. 2026-02-26
    price $159,900 571-char remark

    Show marketing remark (571 chars)

    Welcome to 2509 Essex Street! This 5-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a rare opportunity for investors, contractors, or buyers looking to add value through renovation. With a generous bedroom count and functional layout, the property has strong potential to be transformed into a spacious single-family home or income-producing rental. The house is in need of significant updates and repairs, making it an ideal project for those with vision. Situated in the Orono area, the property is close to local amenities and community conveniences. Bring your tools and creativity!

22. 2026-01-23
    listed $169,900 Active 571-char remark

    Show marketing remark (571 chars)

    Welcome to 2509 Essex Street! This 5-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a rare opportunity for investors, contractors, or buyers looking to add value through renovation. With a generous bedroom count and functional layout, the property has strong potential to be transformed into a spacious single-family home or income-producing rental. The house is in need of significant updates and repairs, making it an ideal project for those with vision. Situated in the Orono area, the property is close to local amenities and community conveniences. Bring your tools and creativity!

23. 2023-08-10
    price $130,000
24. 2023-08-04
    price $140,000
25. 2023-07-24
    price $150,000
26. 2023-07-15
    price $155,000
27. 2023-06-29
    price $165,000
28. 2023-06-16
    price $175,000
29. 2023-06-07
    price $185,000
30. 2016-04-29
    soldstatus $117,000 Sold
31. 2016-03-28
    status Pending
32. 2016-03-28
    status Active
33. 2016-03-26
    historical
34. 2015-09-22
    price $119,900
35. 2015-06-18
    status Active
36. 2015-05-07
    historical
37. 2015-04-08
    listed $120,000 Active
38. 2011-04-01
    soldstatus $65,000
39. 2010-03-03
    listed $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ME · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,187 · $349/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,187 · $349/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,936
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$4,187
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,915
• − Management: −$1,915
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $4,215
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,012
• After-tax cash flow: $4,887/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 26
• NCES district ID: 2314778
• Math proficiency: 88% ▲ 33.00%
• Reading proficiency: 90% ▲ 21.00%
• Median HH income: $44,087
• Composite: 74.55/100
• National rank: #156
• State rank: #39 of 112 in ME

Livability — Old Town

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #3905

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Penobscot County · 81,539 people
• City population: 9,291
• Metro: Bangor, ME
• Population (ZIP): 8,371
• Household income: $61,528
• Rent vs Own: 53.4% rent · 46.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 423.0

Population outlook (Penobscot County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 149,928 people
• By 2030: 146,386 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 135,952 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 123,864 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 97,825 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 77,196 · -48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Slovak 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Penobscot

• 2024 margin: R (+10.9) · D 43.6% · R 54.5% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 5.0pp · 2024: -10.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.9 2020: R+8.3 2016: R+10.9 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.22%
• Current HPI: 220.35
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bangor, ME
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+85.8% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $129,900 MREIS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $144,900 MREIS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $149,900 MREIS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $159,900 MREIS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $169,900 MREIS
• 2023-08-10 Price Changed $130,000 MREIS
• 2023-08-04 Price Changed $140,000 MREIS
• 2023-07-24 Price Changed $150,000 MREIS
• 2023-07-15 Price Changed $155,000 MREIS
• 2023-06-29 Price Changed $165,000 MREIS
• 2023-06-16 Price Changed $175,000 MREIS
• 2023-06-07 Price Changed $185,000 MREIS
• 2016-04-29 Sold (MLS) $117,000 MREIS
• 2016-03-28 Pending — MREIS
• 2016-03-28 Relisted — MREIS
• 2016-03-26 Delisted — MREIS
• 2015-09-22 Price Changed $119,900 MREIS
• 2015-06-18 Relisted — MREIS
• 2015-05-07 Delisted — MREIS
• 2015-04-08 Listed $120,000 MREIS
• 2011-04-01 Sold (MLS) $65,000 MREIS
• 2010-03-03 Listed $69,900 MREIS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,187 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.