182 S Shore Rd · Northville, NY 12134

$499,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2005 0.83 ac lot $405/sqft · 27% below area Est $682k · 27% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.2/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming log cabin retreat located just steps from the Great Sacandaga Lake, offering the perfect blend of rustic character and modern comfort. Enjoy partial lake views from the inviting wraparound porch, ideal for morning coffee or relaxing evenings. This well-maintained home features a spacious living room with a cozy woodstove, granite countertops in the kitchen, and efficient 5-zone radiant heat throughout. A heated garage with workshop space provides excellent functionality for hobbyists or extra storage. The heated, partially finished basement adds valuable living space, including a third bedroom, perfect for guests or extended stays. Step outside to enjoy the fire pit area, ideal for entertaining and making the most of lake life. Additional highlights include a Generac 18KW generator for peace of mind and a durable fiberglass roof installed in 2020 with a transferrable warranty. The current owner docks at Edinburg Marina, with the opportunity for the new owner to do the same! A fantastic year-round home or seasonal getaway just moments from one of the Capital Region's most sought-after lakes!

Key facts

• 5-zone radiant heat
• Cozy woodstove
• Wraparound porch

Tags

• LOG CABIN RETREAT
• PARTIAL LAKE VIEWS
• WRAPAROUND PORCH
• COZY WOODSTOVE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• 5-ZONE RADIANT HEAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (63.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (60.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (63.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.0% vs local median 2.9% in Northville — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#759 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Broadalbin-Perth Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #286 of 590 in NY (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$86k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($492k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $300k; list at $499k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $180,830 (63.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.40% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.47%
• DSCR: 0.31
• GRM: 20.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $682,151
• List price: $499,000
• Delta: -26.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $157,038
• Equity at exit: $449,539

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.96×
• Total profit: $552,625
• Equity at exit: $969,447

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12134

• Home prices YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 20.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,986 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$546 /mo · $6,548/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-1,801

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,266

Max offer price $180,830

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 1116-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1116 chars)

   Charming log cabin retreat located just steps from the Great Sacandaga Lake, offering the perfect blend of rustic character and modern comfort. Enjoy partial lake views from the inviting wraparound porch, ideal for morning coffee or relaxing evenings. This well-maintained home features a spacious living room with a cozy woodstove, granite countertops in the kitchen, and efficient 5-zone radiant heat throughout. A heated garage with workshop space provides excellent functionality for hobbyists or extra storage. The heated, partially finished basement adds valuable living space, including a third bedroom, perfect for guests or extended stays. Step outside to enjoy the fire pit area, ideal for entertaining and making the most of lake life. Additional highlights include a Generac 18KW generator for peace of mind and a durable fiberglass roof installed in 2020 with a transferrable warranty. The current owner docks at Edinburg Marina, with the opportunity for the new owner to do the same! A fantastic year-round home or seasonal getaway just moments from one of the Capital Region's most sought-after lakes!

2. 2026-04-16
   listed $499,000 Active 1116-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1116 chars)

   Charming log cabin retreat located just steps from the Great Sacandaga Lake, offering the perfect blend of rustic character and modern comfort. Enjoy partial lake views from the inviting wraparound porch, ideal for morning coffee or relaxing evenings. This well-maintained home features a spacious living room with a cozy woodstove, granite countertops in the kitchen, and efficient 5-zone radiant heat throughout. A heated garage with workshop space provides excellent functionality for hobbyists or extra storage. The heated, partially finished basement adds valuable living space, including a third bedroom, perfect for guests or extended stays. Step outside to enjoy the fire pit area, ideal for entertaining and making the most of lake life. Additional highlights include a Generac 18KW generator for peace of mind and a durable fiberglass roof installed in 2020 with a transferrable warranty. The current owner docks at Edinburg Marina, with the opportunity for the new owner to do the same! A fantastic year-round home or seasonal getaway just moments from one of the Capital Region's most sought-after lakes!

3. 2019-05-23
   soldstatus $300,000 Closed (Final Sale) 526-char remark

   Show marketing remark (526 chars)

   Come to the Great Sacandaga to see this pristine 3 br 1.5 bath log cabin built with impeccable craftsmanship and attention to detail. Soak in the scenic lake views as you rest on the wrap around porch surrounded by the notoriously peaceful environment or cozy up by the fire while enjoying all that the natural environment and wooded surround has to offer. Extra large detached garage fits 2 cars plus workspace with extra voltage for equip. Bonus room in lower level can be used as a 3rd bedroom or office. Superior Condition

4. 2019-04-10
   status Pend (Under Cntr) 526-char remark

   Show marketing remark (526 chars)

   Come to the Great Sacandaga to see this pristine 3 br 1.5 bath log cabin built with impeccable craftsmanship and attention to detail. Soak in the scenic lake views as you rest on the wrap around porch surrounded by the notoriously peaceful environment or cozy up by the fire while enjoying all that the natural environment and wooded surround has to offer. Extra large detached garage fits 2 cars plus workspace with extra voltage for equip. Bonus room in lower level can be used as a 3rd bedroom or office. Superior Condition

5. 2018-06-29
   price $324,000 526-char remark

   Show marketing remark (526 chars)

   Come to the Great Sacandaga to see this pristine 3 br 1.5 bath log cabin built with impeccable craftsmanship and attention to detail. Soak in the scenic lake views as you rest on the wrap around porch surrounded by the notoriously peaceful environment or cozy up by the fire while enjoying all that the natural environment and wooded surround has to offer. Extra large detached garage fits 2 cars plus workspace with extra voltage for equip. Bonus room in lower level can be used as a 3rd bedroom or office. Superior Condition

6. 2018-06-02
   listed $339,000 New 526-char remark

   Show marketing remark (526 chars)

   Come to the Great Sacandaga to see this pristine 3 br 1.5 bath log cabin built with impeccable craftsmanship and attention to detail. Soak in the scenic lake views as you rest on the wrap around porch surrounded by the notoriously peaceful environment or cozy up by the fire while enjoying all that the natural environment and wooded surround has to offer. Extra large detached garage fits 2 cars plus workspace with extra voltage for equip. Bonus room in lower level can be used as a 3rd bedroom or office. Superior Condition

7. 2017-04-13
   soldstatus $325,000
8. 2017-04-07
   soldstatus $325,000 Closed (Final Sale)
9. 2017-01-28
   status Pend (Under Cntr)
10. 2016-11-14
    listed $349,900 New
11. 2004-12-17
    soldstatus $26,000
12. 2004-03-23
    listed $29,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,548 · $546/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,491 · $624/mo
• Expected delta: +$942/yr (+$79/mo · 14.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,838
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$6,548
• − Insurance: −$2,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,907
• − Management: −$1,907
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable loss: −$31,488
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,557
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,056/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Broadalbin-Perth Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600005
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $55,862
• Composite: 48.28/100
• National rank: #2154
• State rank: #286 of 590 in NY

Livability — Northville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #759
• US rank: #14567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,093

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 6%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.95%
• Current HPI: 358.0334
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1568.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $499,000 Global MLS
• 2019-05-23 Sold (MLS) $300,000 Global MLS
• 2019-04-10 Pending — Global MLS
• 2018-06-29 Price Changed $324,000 Global MLS
• 2018-06-02 Listed $339,000 Global MLS
• 2017-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $325,000 Public Records
• 2017-04-07 Sold (MLS) $325,000 Global MLS
• 2017-01-28 Pending — Global MLS
• 2016-11-14 Listed $349,900 Global MLS
• 2004-12-17 Sold (MLS) $26,000 Global MLS
• 2004-03-23 Listed $29,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,548 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.