1831 Bush St · Red Wing, MN 55066

$150,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,095 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1870 0.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

AN ENORMOUS REAR-YARD PROVIDES ABUNDANT SPACE FOR GARDEN OR PLAY. MANY RECENT UPDATES INCLUDE: MAINTENANCE FREE SIDING, LIGHT-OAK KITCHEN CABINETS, A NEWER FURNACE AND WATER HEATER, AND A NEW REFRIGERATOR.

Key facts

• Screened front porch
• Separate dining room
• Main-level half bath

Tags

• SCREENED FRONT PORCH
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• MAIN-LEVEL HALF BATH
• MUDROOM
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or on-site garage (1-car); Concrete parking surface; Garage dimensions approximately 22x20
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Natural gas fuel; 100 amp electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Residential property; One-and-a-half story layout; Entry includes a front porch
• Construction: Concrete construction materials; Block foundation; Other structures: garage(s) and storage shed
• Exterior features: Enclosed, front and screened porch; Light tree coverage; Garage(s) and storage shed on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all are on upper and main levels as noted: two upper bedrooms and one main-level bedroom); Bedroom sizes include 19x14, 13x11, and 9x14
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the upper level; Half bathroom on the main floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen window; Porch; Walk-in closet; Partial unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Gas water heater; Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $294 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.5% in Red Wing — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#64 in MN, #1,570 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D.
• Red Wing Public School District (rural): math 36% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #220 of 301 in MN (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Burnside Elementary (math 47% / reading 50%, grade D, #480 of 857 statewide, top 56%, 522 students, 42% FRL); Twin Bluff School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #147 of 258 statewide, top 57%, 534 students, 37% FRL); Red Wing Senior High (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #280 of 471 statewide, top 59%, 866 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 86 units permitted in Goodhue County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Goodhue County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $150k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.39%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-5,597
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $19,255
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55066

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,659 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,016/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,287

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $378	-5% $336	+0% $294	+5% $251	+10% $209
Rent	-10% $162	-5% $228	+0% $294	+5% $359	+10% $425
Rate	-1.0pp $369	-0.5pp $332	base $294	+0.5pp $255	+1.0pp $215

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
222 Bush St Unit 111 Red Wing, MN	2.0	1.0	998	$1,895	$1.90	46d	1	1.17mi
222 Bush St Unit 12 Red Wing, MN	2.0	1.0	1007	$1,900	$1.89	46d	1	1.17mi
222 Bush St Unit 115 Red Wing, MN	2.0	1.0	948	$1,800	$1.90	46d	1	1.17mi
821 W 5th St Unit 2 Red Wing, MN	2.0	1.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	15d	1	1.18mi
205 Plum St Apt 2 Red Wing, MN	2.0	1.0	825	$1,550	$1.88	46d	1	1.18mi
821 W 5th St Apt 5 Red Wing, MN	2.0	1.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	0d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $150,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $150,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,016 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,016 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,909
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,016
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,593
• − Management: −$1,593
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $1,192
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$286
• After-tax cash flow: $3,237/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Wing Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2730480
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $53,206
• Composite: 34.77/100
• National rank: #5122
• State rank: #220 of 301 in MN

Livability — Red Wing

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #64
• US rank: #1570

Category grades

Amenities D Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Red Wing, MN
• County: Goodhue County · 19,226 people
• City population: 19,226
• Metro: Red Wing, MN
• Population (ZIP): 19,226
• Household income: $73,584
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 504.0

Population outlook (Goodhue County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,532 people
• By 2030: 46,185 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 44,531 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 41,532 · -10.7%
• By 2075: 33,745 · -27.5%
• By 2100: 23,716 · -49.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 3% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Goodhue

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 40.8% · R 57.3% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.1pp toward R · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+18.0 2012: R+3.0 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.16%
• Current HPI: 247.9899
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Red Wing, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+114.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $150,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-10 Coming Soon $150,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1998-09-25 Sold (MLS) $65,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-09-02 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-05-20 Listed $69,850 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,016 · -3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.