2604 Fair Oak Ln · McHenry, IL 60051

$269,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,284 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1945 6,384 sqft lot Est $241k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +2.2/15.0

Listing remarks

Totally upgraded two-unit property in a beautiful location near Chain O'Lakes. IT HAS BEEN CONTINUALLY RENOVATED SINCE THE TIME OF PURCHASE. A septic and private well were made in 2009. FURNACE (2015), AC UNIT (2015), ELECTRICAL AND PLUMBING 2014, WATER HEATER 2021, BOTH APARTMENTS WERE RENOVATED. FIRST FLOOR - COMMON AREA LAUNDRY. LARGE BEAUTIFUL 2ND FLOOR TERRACE. ENLARGED DRIVEWAY AT FRONT AND MUCH MORE. One car garage.

Key facts

• Large balcony
• Private entrance
• Two story home

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• PRIVATE ENTRANCE
• LARGE BALCONY
• ENLARGED FRONT DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel number 0936331020
• Financial info: Special service area: No; Property is a two-unit building with reported rents (unit 1: $1,675; unit 2: $1,600) and security deposits (~$1,600)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage owned (1 garage space); Total of 3 parking spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Two- to four-unit property; Fee simple ownership; Rehab completed in 2014; Built approximately 81–90 years ago; Built before 1978; Unincorporated location
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 84 x 76; Lot is less than 0.25 acre; School bus service noted

Interior

• Kitchen: Each unit includes a stove and refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (2 on first and second floor units: each unit has 2 bedrooms)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (1 in each unit)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heating
• Interior features: 9 total rooms; School bus service available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-253 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.6% in McHenry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#205 in IL, #3,749 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Mchenry Chsd 156 (suburban): math 27% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #244 of 620 in IL (top 39%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,595 units permitted in McHenry County in 2024 (485 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• McHenry County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $270k implies a 610% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $214,229 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.02%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $241,392
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2917 Virginia Ave	0.43mi	2/1.0	1,436 (+12%)	1mo	$270,000	$188	55
3103 Charlotte Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,286 (+0%)	20mo	$215,000	$167	46
3320 W Skyway Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+5%)	11mo	$279,900	$208	44
3102 Victoria Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,191 (-7%)	13mo	$180,000	$151	41
3216 Golfview Rd	0.72mi	2/1.0	1,366 (+6%)	16mo	$265,000	$194	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $130,933
• Equity at exit: $243,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.27×
• Total profit: $398,434
• Equity at exit: $524,356

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60051

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,142 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$418 /mo · $5,016/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,463

Max offer price $225,124

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2610 S Elmkirk Park McHenry, IL	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,200	$2.20	24d	1	0.20mi
2612 S Elmkirk Park McHenry, IL	3.0	1.0	960	$2,200	$2.29	24d	1	0.20mi
3102 Victoria Ave McHenry, IL	3.0	1.0	1191	$2,400	$2.02	3d	1	0.57mi
1010 Osage Dr McHenry, IL	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	22d	1	1.20mi
3317 Pearl St McHenry, IL	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,150	$1.23	1d	1	1.20mi
3317 Pearl St Unit NA McHenry, IL	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,150	$1.23	3d	1	1.20mi
902 3rd St Unit 1 McHenry, IL	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,600	$1.60	24d	1	1.28mi
913 3rd St Unit 907 McHenry, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	12d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on marketlisting id $269,900 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Temporarily No Showings 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Temporarily No Showings 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Temporarily No Showings 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Temporarily No Showings 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Temporarily No Showings 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Temporarily No Showings 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,900 Temporarily No Showings 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,900 Temporarily No Showings 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,900 Temporarily No Showings 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    statusdays on market $269,900 Temporarily No Showings 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,900 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,900 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,900 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,900 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-04-14
    listed $269,900 Active
17. 2021-09-22
    status Active Under Contract (Do Not Show)
18. 2021-09-22
    historical
19. 2021-09-15
    listed Active
20. 2021-09-15
    historical
21. 2021-09-01
    status Temporarily No Showings
22. 2021-08-06
    status Active Under Contract
23. 2021-07-29
    listed Active
24. 2014-01-10
    soldstatus $38,000 Closed Sale
25. 2013-12-23
    historical Contingent
26. 2013-12-10
    price $44,900 Price Change
27. 2013-11-07
    price $49,900 Price Change
28. 2013-10-08
    price $54,900 Price Change
29. 2013-09-05
    price $59,900 Price Change
30. 2013-08-01
    listed $74,900 New
31. 2006-06-09
    soldstatus $139,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,016 · $418/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,572 · $464/mo
• Expected delta: +$555/yr (+$46/mo · 11.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$5,016
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,057
• − Management: −$2,057
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$7,742
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,858
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,184/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mchenry Chsd 156
• NCES district ID: 1725320
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $66,681
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7188
• State rank: #244 of 620 in IL

Livability — McHenry

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #205
• US rank: #3749

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 31,781
• Population (ZIP): 23,931

Population outlook (McHenry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 305,342 people
• By 2030: 301,491 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 288,211 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 268,430 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 226,209 · -25.9%
• By 2100: 181,247 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McHenry

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.3) · D 46.6% · R 51.9% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: -5.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.3 2020: R+2.5 2016: R+8.1 2012: R+8.8 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.50%
• Current HPI: 612.07
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+93.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $269,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-22 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-22 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-15 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-15 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-01 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-29 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-10 Sold (MLS) $38,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-23 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-10 Price Changed $44,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-07 Price Changed $49,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-08 Price Changed $54,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-05 Price Changed $59,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-08-01 Listed $74,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $139,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $5,016 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.