Grand (Old Hickory) Plan · Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance), TN 37115

$102,995

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,813 sqft · Manufactured · 321 Days on market

$700/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +3.0/30.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Old Hickory is a family community that offers beautiful single and doublewide home sites with large kitchens and bedrooms. The Madison location allows for taking advantage of this well-maintained community that's hidden from the hustle and bustle of Nashville but still offers easy access to the city. * * * NEW in 2025 - A brand new clubhouse for resident use Amenities include a playground, basketball court, clubhouse, and community center. With beautiful river views, Old Hickory is minutes away from Nashville, malls, sports and medical facilities, good schools, and entertainment. Madison, Tennessee is a suburban neighborhood in northeast Nashville. It's part of the Nashville metropolitan

Key facts

• Large bedrooms
• Large kitchens
• Community center

Tags

• LARGE KITCHENS
• LARGE BEDROOMS
• NEW CLUBHOUSE
• PLAYGROUND
• BASKETBALL COURT
• COMMUNITY CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price: 102,995; Listing status: Active
• HOA & community: Association fee: 700

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan (New construction inventory type: Plan)
• Construction: Located in Madison, TN (zip 37115)
• Exterior features: Living area: 1,813

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan model: Grand (Old Hickory)

🏗️ New construction. The $102,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $333,592.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $103k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $103k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Davidson County (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #126 of 139 in TN (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 330 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,873 units permitted in Davidson County in 2024 (4,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,425/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 2759% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Davidson County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 321 days — a 12% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.9% of price; HOA is 29% of rent.

Recommended offer $90,635 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 321 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.00%
• DSCR: 0.38
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $333,592
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
310 Larkin Springs Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+5%)	1mo	$350,000	$184	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -47.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-130,081
• Equity at exit: $49,740

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.44×
• Total profit: $-228,186
• Equity at exit: $28,843

Cash invested: $93,406 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37115

• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 330
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,425 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,749
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$417 /mo · $5,004/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$700
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $-1,089

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,804

Max offer price $175,956

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,398
• Closing costs: $10,008
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1040 N DuPont Ave Madison, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	944	$1,350	$1.43	23d	1	0.43mi
830 Keats Way Madison, TN	4.0	2.5	1897	$2,699	$1.42	23d	1	0.52mi
834 Keats Way Madison, TN	4.0	2.5	2006	$2,795	$1.39	23d	1	0.52mi
858 Keats Way Madison, TN	4.0	2.5	2006	$2,745	$1.37	16d	1	0.53mi
968 Juniper Ln Madison, TN	4.0	2.5	1860	$2,670	$1.44	23d	1	0.59mi
2151 Bayport Ave Old Hickory, TN	3.0	3.0	1452	$2,000	$1.38	2d	1	0.86mi
218B Myatt Dr Madison, TN	3.0	3.5	1614	$2,500	$1.55	23d	1	0.88mi
708 N DuPont Ave Madison, TN	3.0	2.5	1904	$2,395	$1.26	23d	1	1.07mi
3004 Red Fox Rdg Madison, TN	4.0	2.5	1900	$2,500	$1.32	16d	1	1.08mi
720 Carmel Ave Madison, TN	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,100	$1.47	23d	1	1.11mi
2180 Riverway Dr Old Hickory, TN	3.0	2.0	2200	$2,150	$0.98	17d	1	1.28mi
926 Idlewild Dr Madison, TN	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,500	$1.67	21d	1	1.46mi
505 Roosevelt Ave Madison, TN	4.0	1.5	1423	$2,145	$1.51	4d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $700 · $8,400/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $102,995 Active 321 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $102,995 Active 320 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $102,995 Active 319 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $102,995 Active 318 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $102,995 Active 316 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $102,995 Active 315 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $102,995 Active 312 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $102,995 Active 311 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $102,995 Active 310 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $102,995 Active 307 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $102,995 Active 306 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $102,995 Active 305 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $102,995 Active 304 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $102,995 Active 303 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,104
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,686
• − Property taxes: −$5,004
• − Insurance: −$1,668
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,328
• − Management: −$2,328
• − HOA: −$8,400
• − Depreciation: −$9,704
• Taxable loss: −$19,016
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,564
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,509/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Davidson County
• NCES district ID: 4703180
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,667
• Composite: 14.03/100
• National rank: #9472
• State rank: #126 of 139 in TN

Livability — Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance), TN
• County: Davidson County · 680,067 people
• City population: 677,595
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 40,615
• Household income: $54,566
• Rent vs Own: 56.7% rent · 43.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2759.0

Population outlook (Davidson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 808,568 people
• By 2030: 874,489 · +8.2%
• By 2040: 1,009,046 · +24.8%
• By 2050: 1,147,294 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 1,475,439 · +82.5%
• By 2100: 1,714,101 · +112.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Black 32% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Davidson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+27.4) · D 62.7% · R 35.3% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.5pp toward D · 2008: 21.0pp · 2024: 27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+27.4 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+26.0 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+21.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.74%
• Current HPI: 341.9614
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.94%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B