24001 Muirlands Blvd #56 · Lake Forest, CA 92630

$229,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · Manufactured · 241 Days on market

Built 1972 $156/sqft · 22% above area Est $187k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom double-wide manufactured home in the tranquil 55+ community of Forest Gardens. Spanning 1464 sq. ft, this inviting home features an open floor plan, perfect for comfortable living. Bright and spacious, ideal for everyday living. Enclosed and perfect for use as an office, sitting room, or craft/hobby room. Includes built-in shelves or a china cabinet, adding a touch of elegance. Features a Google Nest smart thermostat for optimal energy efficiency, along with reliable AC and heating. Covered carport for two vehicles, an outdoor shed/workshop, and plenty of external storage. Enjoy barbecue grill and seating area in the back with partial lake view. Conveniently located near the 405 and 5 freeways, and within walking distance to tennis courts, clubhouse, and a variety of community activities like bingo, dances, holiday parties, and more. Plus, enjoy the heated pool, hot tub, and workout gym.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Covered carport
• Outdoor shed

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ENCLOSED OFFICE
• BUILT-IN SHELVES
• GOOGLE NEST THERMOSTAT
• COVERED CARPORT
• OUTDOOR SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $229k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 2.1% in Lake Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#387 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Saddleback Valley Unified (suburban): math 51% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #67 of 517 in CA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 205 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($126k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 241 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 241 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.87%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,105
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: 22.39%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24001 Muirlands #11	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-2%)	2mo	$165,000	$115	95
24001 Muirlands Blvd #147	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-2%)	3mo	$359,000	$249	94
24001 Muirlands Blvd #315	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-2%)	2mo	$305,000	$212	94
24001 Muirlands Blvd #221	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-2%)	5mo	$280,000	$194	93
24001 Muirlands Blvd #329	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-2%)	5mo	$380,000	$264	93
24001 Muirlands #47	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-2%)	6mo	$195,000	$135	93
24001 Muirlands Blvd #347	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-2%)	6mo	$197,000	$137	92
24001 Muirlands #185	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-2%)	7mo	$295,000	$205	92
24001 Muirlands #352	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,525 (+4%)	2mo	$352,500	$231	86
24001 Muirlands Blvd #268	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,420 (-3%)	8mo	$335,000	$236	83
24001 Murilands Blvd #25	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,320 (-10%)	7mo	$209,000	$158	72
24001 Muirlands Blvd #62	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+11%)	8mo	$449,000	$277	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $49,135
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $148,884
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92630

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,753 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$286 /mo · $3,435/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$788
• Net cashflow: $1,382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,003

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22700 Lake Forest Dr Lake Forest, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$3,248	$3.22	4d	1	0.39mi
22602 Cottonwood Cir Lake Forest, CA	3.0	2.0	1301	$4,250	$3.27	44d	1	0.47mi
22835 Islamare Ln Lake Forest, CA	3.0	2.5	1860	$6,600	$3.55	13d	1	0.56mi
24246 Swiftriver Ct Lake Forest, CA	1.0	1.5	905	$2,750	$3.04	24d	1	0.57mi
24241 Swiftriver Ct Lake Forest, CA	1.0	1.5	905	$2,850	$3.15	44d	1	0.57mi
22892 Plainview Cir Lake Forest, CA	3.0	2.0	1836	$5,400	$2.94	44d	1	0.60mi
24621 Overlake Dr Lake Forest, CA	3.0	2.0	1677	$4,350	$2.59	24d	1	0.75mi
23333 Ridge Route Dr Lake Forest, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	892	$3,100	$3.47	2d	9	1.07mi
25092 Farthing St Lake Forest, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	881	$3,303	$3.75	3d	5	1.27mi
2369 Via Mariposa E Unit 1B Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1340	$2,950	$2.20	44d	1	1.38mi
2369 Via Mariposa E Unit 3H Laguna Woods, CA	3.0	3.0	1663	$3,750	$2.25	44d	1	1.38mi
2370 Via Mariposa W Unit 3D Laguna Woods, CA	3.0	3.0	1663	$3,300	$1.98	19d	1	1.43mi
2293 Via Puerta Unit O Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1057	$3,100	$2.93	19d	1	1.48mi
2269 Via Puerta Unit N Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1057	$2,700	$2.55	19d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 241 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 240 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 239 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 238 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 236 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 235 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 232 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 231 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,000 Active 230 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,000 Active 227 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 226 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 225 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 224 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 223 DOM
15. 2026-04-11
    price $229,000 961-char remark

    Show marketing remark (961 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom double-wide manufactured home in the tranquil 55+ community of Forest Gardens. Spanning 1464 sq. ft, this inviting home features an open floor plan, perfect for comfortable living. Bright and spacious, ideal for everyday living. Enclosed and perfect for use as an office, sitting room, or craft/hobby room. Includes built-in shelves or a china cabinet, adding a touch of elegance. Features a Google Nest smart thermostat for optimal energy efficiency, along with reliable AC and heating. Covered carport for two vehicles, an outdoor shed/workshop, and plenty of external storage. Enjoy barbecue grill and seating area in the back with partial lake view. Conveniently located near the 405 and 5 freeways, and within walking distance to tennis courts, clubhouse, and a variety of community activities like bingo, dances, holiday parties, and more. Plus, enjoy the heated pool, hot tub, and workout gym.

16. 2026-04-01
    price $234,000 961-char remark

    Show marketing remark (961 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom double-wide manufactured home in the tranquil 55+ community of Forest Gardens. Spanning 1464 sq. ft, this inviting home features an open floor plan, perfect for comfortable living. Bright and spacious, ideal for everyday living. Enclosed and perfect for use as an office, sitting room, or craft/hobby room. Includes built-in shelves or a china cabinet, adding a touch of elegance. Features a Google Nest smart thermostat for optimal energy efficiency, along with reliable AC and heating. Covered carport for two vehicles, an outdoor shed/workshop, and plenty of external storage. Enjoy barbecue grill and seating area in the back with partial lake view. Conveniently located near the 405 and 5 freeways, and within walking distance to tennis courts, clubhouse, and a variety of community activities like bingo, dances, holiday parties, and more. Plus, enjoy the heated pool, hot tub, and workout gym.

17. 2025-10-20
    listed $239,000 Active 961-char remark

    Show marketing remark (961 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom double-wide manufactured home in the tranquil 55+ community of Forest Gardens. Spanning 1464 sq. ft, this inviting home features an open floor plan, perfect for comfortable living. Bright and spacious, ideal for everyday living. Enclosed and perfect for use as an office, sitting room, or craft/hobby room. Includes built-in shelves or a china cabinet, adding a touch of elegance. Features a Google Nest smart thermostat for optimal energy efficiency, along with reliable AC and heating. Covered carport for two vehicles, an outdoor shed/workshop, and plenty of external storage. Enjoy barbecue grill and seating area in the back with partial lake view. Conveniently located near the 405 and 5 freeways, and within walking distance to tennis courts, clubhouse, and a variety of community activities like bingo, dances, holiday parties, and more. Plus, enjoy the heated pool, hot tub, and workout gym.

18. 2025-09-23
    historical
19. 2025-08-04
    listed $229,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,033
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$3,435
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,603
• − Management: −$3,603
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable income: $13,758
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,302
• After-tax cash flow: $13,283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saddleback Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633860
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $85,577
• Composite: 56.05/100
• National rank: #1185
• State rank: #67 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Forest

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #387
• US rank: #13130

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Forest, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 80,019
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 67,152
• Household income: $125,853
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2412.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 27% Asian 19% Two or more races 16% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 18% Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -866.99%
• Current HPI: 436.6189
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.51%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-0.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $229,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $234,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-20 Listed $239,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-23 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-08-04 Listed $229,999 CRMLS

Property tax history

-3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $99 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.