Is Caddo Plan in Converse, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.7% cap rate and $-333/mo modeled cash flow at a $212,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Caddo Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 4.7% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,718/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 30.6

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +7.2/30.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Livability +3.3/5.0
Rent growth +2.2/5.0
Schools +2.1/10.0
1% rule +2.0/10.0
DSCR +1.4/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$212,990

Caddo Plan · Converse, TX 78109

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily · 380 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 7% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Caddo, featuring an open kitchen, cafe, and spacious gathering room. Three bedrooms accommodate your growing family or guests. Explore more affordable homes in Converse, TX.

Key facts

Open kitchen
Listed 379 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $213k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-333 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (7.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (19.3% below list).
Recommended offer: $172k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 66/100 on livability (#649 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: East Central Heritage Middle (math 11% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,120 students, 44% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1440 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 380 days — a 12% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $171,812 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 380 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.70% ✗
Cap rate: 4.66%
Cash-on-cash: -5.83%
DSCR: 0.74
GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $244,575
List price: $212,990
Delta: -12.91%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1318 Vallarta Centro	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	4mo	$174,370	$151	90
10344 Lassen Park	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,156 (+0%)	5mo	$268,610	$232	79
1242 Punta Mita St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,276 (+11%)	1mo	$225,780	$177	73
1113 King Eider	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+4%)	1mo	$259,990	$217	73
10211 Monte Carmel Pl	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,276 (+11%)	6mo	$254,190	$199	70
10107 Monte Carmel Pl	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,276 (+11%)	3mo	$249,810	$196	69
10605 Denali Preserve	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	1mo	$232,500	$182	68
10624 Tufted Ct	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,106 (-4%)	0mo	$229,990	$208	59
2214 Collins Aly	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+10%)	1mo	$198,500	$157	55
836 King Eider	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,106 (-4%)	9mo	$227,990	$206	52
9939 Mather Way	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+10%)	1mo	$195,999	$155	50
907 King Eider	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,106 (-4%)	12mo	$224,990	$203	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -29.7%
Equity multiple: 0.04×
Total profit: $-65,842
Equity at exit: $36,467

10-year hold

IRR: -49.4%
Equity multiple: -0.52×
Total profit: $-103,988
Equity at exit: $21,146

Cash invested: $68,481 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 42 active · 21 under contract
Months of supply: 8.7 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $251,755 ($189/sqft)
Median days on market: 380 d
This list price: 5% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +12.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78109

Home prices YoY: -17.8%
Rents YoY: -1.1%
Active inventory: 1440
Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,718 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,283
Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,669/yr
Insurance: −$102
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
Net cashflow: $-333

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,139

Max offer price $196,406

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-164	-5% $-248	+0% $-333	+5% $-417	+10% $-502
Rent	-10% $-469	-5% $-401	+0% $-333	+5% $-265	+10% $-197
Rate	-1.0pp $-210	-0.5pp $-271	base $-333	+0.5pp $-396	+1.0pp $-461

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $61,144
Closing costs: $7,337
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10313 Lassen Park Adkins, TX	3.0	2.5	1470	$1,850	$1.26	42d	1	0.21mi
1117 King Eider Adkins, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,750	$1.24	13d	1	0.40mi
2016 Palmer Pl Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,595	$1.09	93d	1	0.49mi
2187 Schuwirth Rd Converse, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1085	$1,566	$1.44	9d	1	0.50mi
2025 Palmer Pl Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,495	$1.12	73d	1	0.51mi
2811 Gustavo Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	93d	1	1.12mi
2822 Millikan Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,450	$1.00	34d	1	1.12mi
2822 Millikan Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	73d	1	1.12mi
2819 Gustavo Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,500	$1.03	93d	1	1.14mi
2843 Elion Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,425	$1.12	17d	1	1.14mi
2815 Armaan WAY Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1401	$1,495	$1.07	9d	1	1.16mi
11030 Yonder Flts Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,500	$1.05	53d	1	1.24mi
10606 Varmus Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,476	$1.02	42d	1	1.25mi
10538 Varmus Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,550	$1.08	34d	1	1.26mi
10547 Varmus Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,550	$1.08	33d	1	1.29mi
2818 Praline Fry Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,500	$1.05	38d	1	1.30mi
3318 Carducci Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,800	$1.41	93d	1	1.32mi
10707 Giacconi Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,686	$1.33	93d	1	1.36mi
10754 Prusiner Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,450	$1.15	73d	1	1.37mi
10803 Prusiner Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,410	$0.97	73d	1	1.38mi
10803 Prusiner Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,476	$1.02	71d	1	1.38mi
10783 Prusiner Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,621	$1.28	9d	1	1.39mi
10755 Prusiner Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,536	$1.21	71d	1	1.39mi
4611 E 1604 N Converse, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,299	$1.31	9d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $212,990 Active 380 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $212,990 Active 378 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $212,990 Active 377 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $212,990 Active 376 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $212,990 Active 375 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $212,990 Active 372 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $212,990 Active 370 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $212,990 Active 369 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $212,990 Active 367 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $212,990 Active 365 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $212,990 Active 364 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $212,990 Active 363 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $212,990 Active 362 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $212,990 Active 361 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $212,990 Active 359 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $212,990 Active 358 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $212,990 Active 357 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $212,990 Active 356 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $212,990 Active 355 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $212,990 Active 354 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $212,990 Active 353 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $212,990 Active 352 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $212,990 Active 351 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $212,990 Active 350 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $212,990 Active 348 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $212,990 Active 347 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $212,990 Active 346 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $212,990 Active 344 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $212,990 Active 343 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $212,990 Active 342 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $212,990 Active 341 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $212,990 Active 340 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $212,990 Active 339 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $212,990 Active 338 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $212,990 Active 337 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $212,990 Active 335 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $212,990 Active 333 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $212,990 Active 332 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $212,990 Active 329 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $212,990 Active 328 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $212,990 Active 327 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $212,990 Active 326 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $212,990 Active 324 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $212,990 Active 320 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $212,990 Active 319 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $212,990 Active 318 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $212,990 Active 315 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $212,990 Active 314 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $212,990 Active 313 DOM
2026-06-01

days on market $212,990 Active 312 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $20,617
− Mortgage interest: −$13,700
− Property taxes: −$3,669
− Insurance: −$1,223
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,649
− Management: −$1,649
− Depreciation: −$7,115
Taxable loss: −$8,388

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,013
After-tax cash flow: $-1,982/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a modern and well-maintained living space with potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and functionality.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
Both Updating light fixtures — Modern light fixtures can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
Both Upgrading appliances — Modern appliances can improve the home's functionality and appeal to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Middle East Central Heritage Middle F TX #1,478/1,662 Nat'l #12,017/14,009 High East Central H S F TX #1,264/1,632 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: East Central ISD
NCES district ID: 4817850
Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income: $53,941
Composite: 18.67/100
National rank: #8887
State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Converse

Score: 66/100
State rank: #649
US rank: #12250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Bexar County · 2,336,851 people
City population: 63,067
Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
Population (ZIP): 63,067
Household income: $91,320
Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 27% Two or more races 21% Black 21% Asian 3%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 4%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -51.02%
Current HPI: 236.4923
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-6.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2026-03-28 Price Changed $212,990 Zillow
2025-07-24 Listed $227,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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