628 NW 2nd St · Ocala, FL 34475

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,458 sqft · Other · 149 Days on market

Built 2025 5,227 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Under Construction. Under Construction. Under Construction. Welcome to your new dream home! This beautiful new construction features a spacious 3 bedroom, 2 bath layout with a split floor plan, perfect for privacy and family living. Step inside to discover laminate tile flooring throughout the open living spaces, complemented by vaulted ceilings that create an airy and inviting atmosphere. With over 1,500 square feet of living space, there's plenty of room for relaxation and entertaining. Enjoy the convenience of modern living with included appliances in the kitchen, making meal prep a breeze. Step outside to unwind on the charming front porch or host

Key facts

• New construction
• Front porch
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• LAMINATE TILE FLOORING
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• INCLUDED APPLIANCES
• FRONT PORCH
• BACK PATIO

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($107/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.1% in Ocala — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: South Ocala Elementary School (math 45% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,330 of 2,144 statewide, top 63%, 715 students, 60% FRL); Howard Middle School (math 47% / reading 50%, grade C-, #274 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 980 students, 60% FRL); Forest High School (math 36% / reading 54%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 2,325 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 202 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,805/mo this rent would consume 72% of the median local household income ($30k/yr) (locally 923% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $7k; list at $205k implies a 2968% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.19%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-32,624
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-27,566
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34475

• Home prices YoY: -8.0%
• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,805 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,075/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,793

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $151	-5% $80	+0% $9	+5% $-62	+10% $-133
Rent	-10% $-134	-5% $-62	+0% $9	+5% $80	+10% $151
Rate	-1.0pp $112	-0.5pp $61	base $9	+0.5pp $-44	+1.0pp $-98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
714 NW 1st St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1444	$2,200	$1.52	15d	1	0.08mi
717 W Silver Springs Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,445	$1.45	15d	1	0.10mi
302 SE Broadway St #460 Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1500	$3,000	$2.00	23d	1	0.61mi
1683 SW 3rd St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1636	$2,200	$1.34	23d	1	0.68mi
241 NE Tuscawilla Ave Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	1644	$1,400	$0.85	23d	1	0.73mi
900 SE 3rd Ave Ocala, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1160	$2,325	$2.00	15d	4	0.81mi
339 NE Sanchez Ave Unit 111 Ocala, FL	3.0	3.0	1422	$1,649	$1.16	23d	1	0.81mi
710 NE 4th St Unit 101 Ocala, FL	3.0	3.0	1422	$1,575	$1.11	23d	1	0.82mi
1911 NW 6th St Ocala, FL	3.0	1.0	877	$1,400	$1.60	15d	1	0.84mi
510 SE 11th St Unit 510-D Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	925	$995	$1.08	15d	1	1.00mi
1908 NW 13th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,325	$1.32	23d	1	1.11mi
305 SE 10th Ave Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	1449	$1,800	$1.24	23d	1	1.12mi
1140 NW 20th Ave Ocala, FL	4.0	1.0	1144	$1,550	$1.35	23d	1	1.12mi
730 SE 13th St Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,499	$1.50	23d	1	1.19mi
408 NE 12th Ave Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1808	$2,100	$1.16	23d	1	1.22mi
346 NW 24th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1206	$1,500	$1.24	15d	1	1.26mi
1602 NW 20th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,500	$1.23	15d	1	1.37mi
131 SE 13th Ave Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	956	$1,225	$1.28	15d	1	1.39mi
127 SE 13th Ave Unit R 3107 Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	956	$1,225	$1.28	15d	1	1.40mi
1316 E Fort King St Unit 1316-1 Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	892	$1,499	$1.68	23d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-29
   price $205,000
3. 2026-01-11
   price $215,000
4. 2025-11-23
   listed $225,000 Active
5. 2025-07-02
   soldstatus $6,682
6. 2018-10-12
   soldstatus $100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,655
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,075
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,732
• − Management: −$1,732
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$3,357
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$806
• After-tax cash flow: $913/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ocala

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #8461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocala, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 263,375
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,301
• Household income: $30,174
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 923.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 44% White 30% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Hispanic 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.26%
• Current HPI: 254.6319
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2967.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-23 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $6,682 Public Records
• 2018-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $100 Public Records