12 Wooded Oak Ln · Northwest Harbor, NY 11937

$1,465,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 188 Days on market

Built 1985 0.46 ac lot $1046/sqft · at area comps Est $1450k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SOLID SALTBOX STREAMING WITH LIGHT Conveniently located in East Hampton's near Northwest Woods, this well-maintained two-story Saltbox-style home on a shy half acre is ready for its next chapter. Boasting a southern facing rear yard with heated 18x36 pool that abuts a natural landscape, the home features three bedrooms, two full baths, an open layout for the living and dining under soaring ceilings, and a well equipped kitchen. Possessing a successful rental history for many years, additional amenities include hardwood floors, central air conditioning, wood-burning fireplace, unfinished basement, 500 sq.ft wood deck and separate shed for storage. Situated around the corner from the prestigious Longhouse Reserve, and less than 2 miles to the Village of East Hampton, this home is an excellent investment opportunity in an area where real estate values continue to rise. Be in good company on Wooded Oak Lane and your future self will continue to thank you for making such a wise purchase.

Key facts

• Open layout
• Natural landscape
• Heated pool

Tags

• HEATED POOL
• NATURAL LANDSCAPE
• OPEN LAYOUT
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.47M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($88k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.47M).
• Recommended offer: $1.29M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 7.8% in Northwest Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,007 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• East Hampton Union Free School District (town): math 62% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #159 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $20,327/mo this rent would consume 188% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $44k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $410k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.29M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $205k; list at $1.47M implies a 615% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,289,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.45%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,450,000
• List price: $1,465,000
• Delta: 1.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 Wooded Oak Ln	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,550 (+11%)	3mo	$1,675,000	$1,081	75
16 Karin Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,400 (0%)	7mo	$1,250,000	$893	67
108 Middle Hwy	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-6%)	22mo	$330,000	$250	54
12 Todd Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,550 (+11%)	4mo	$1,450,000	$935	51
15 Tub Oarsmans Rd	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+3%)	14mo	$980,000	$681	44
121 Mulford Ave	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,584 (+13%)	10mo	$1,565,000	$988	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $336,439
• Equity at exit: $218,436

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.37×
• Total profit: $1,380,929
• Equity at exit: $126,666

Cash invested: $410,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,327 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,683
• Tax from tax record: −$433 /mo · $5,199/yr
• Insurance: −$610
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,269
• Net cashflow: $7,332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,046

Max offer price $1,465,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $366,250
• Closing costs: $43,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23 Wooded Oak Ln East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1560	$25,000	$16.03	43d	1	0.12mi
17 Joshua Edwards Ct East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1800	$40,000	$22.22	43d	1	0.63mi
319 Three Mile Harbor Rd East Hampton, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$5,500	$5.00	1d	1	1.08mi
3 Forest Ct East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1750	$50,000	$28.57	24d	1	1.35mi
66 Crystal Dr East Hampton, NY	2.0	3.0	960	$20,000	$20.83	1d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,465,000 Active 188 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,465,000 Active 187 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,465,000 Active 186 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,465,000 Active 185 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,465,000 Active 183 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,465,000 Active 182 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,465,000 Active 179 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,465,000 Active 178 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,465,000 Active 177 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,465,000 Active 174 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,465,000 Active 173 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,465,000 Active 172 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,465,000 Active 171 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,465,000 Active 170 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    price $1,465,000 997-char remark

    Show marketing remark (997 chars)

    SOLID SALTBOX STREAMING WITH LIGHT Conveniently located in East Hampton's near Northwest Woods, this well-maintained two-story Saltbox-style home on a shy half acre is ready for its next chapter. Boasting a southern facing rear yard with heated 18x36 pool that abuts a natural landscape, the home features three bedrooms, two full baths, an open layout for the living and dining under soaring ceilings, and a well equipped kitchen. Possessing a successful rental history for many years, additional amenities include hardwood floors, central air conditioning, wood-burning fireplace, unfinished basement, 500 sq.ft wood deck and separate shed for storage. Situated around the corner from the prestigious Longhouse Reserve, and less than 2 miles to the Village of East Hampton, this home is an excellent investment opportunity in an area where real estate values continue to rise. Be in good company on Wooded Oak Lane and your future self will continue to thank you for making such a wise purchase.

16. 2026-02-17
    price $1,495,000 997-char remark

    Show marketing remark (997 chars)

    SOLID SALTBOX STREAMING WITH LIGHT Conveniently located in East Hampton's near Northwest Woods, this well-maintained two-story Saltbox-style home on a shy half acre is ready for its next chapter. Boasting a southern facing rear yard with heated 18x36 pool that abuts a natural landscape, the home features three bedrooms, two full baths, an open layout for the living and dining under soaring ceilings, and a well equipped kitchen. Possessing a successful rental history for many years, additional amenities include hardwood floors, central air conditioning, wood-burning fireplace, unfinished basement, 500 sq.ft wood deck and separate shed for storage. Situated around the corner from the prestigious Longhouse Reserve, and less than 2 miles to the Village of East Hampton, this home is an excellent investment opportunity in an area where real estate values continue to rise. Be in good company on Wooded Oak Lane and your future self will continue to thank you for making such a wise purchase.

17. 2025-12-12
    listed $1,525,000 Active 997-char remark

    Show marketing remark (997 chars)

    SOLID SALTBOX STREAMING WITH LIGHT Conveniently located in East Hampton's near Northwest Woods, this well-maintained two-story Saltbox-style home on a shy half acre is ready for its next chapter. Boasting a southern facing rear yard with heated 18x36 pool that abuts a natural landscape, the home features three bedrooms, two full baths, an open layout for the living and dining under soaring ceilings, and a well equipped kitchen. Possessing a successful rental history for many years, additional amenities include hardwood floors, central air conditioning, wood-burning fireplace, unfinished basement, 500 sq.ft wood deck and separate shed for storage. Situated around the corner from the prestigious Longhouse Reserve, and less than 2 miles to the Village of East Hampton, this home is an excellent investment opportunity in an area where real estate values continue to rise. Be in good company on Wooded Oak Lane and your future self will continue to thank you for making such a wise purchase.

18. 1999-08-23
    soldstatus $205,000
19. 1997-12-19
    soldstatus $208,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,199 · $433/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,979 · $1,248/mo
• Expected delta: +$9,780/yr (+$815/mo · 188.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $243,919
• − Mortgage interest: −$82,063
• − Property taxes: −$5,199
• − Insurance: −$7,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,514
• − Management: −$19,514
• − Depreciation: −$42,618
• Taxable income: $67,687
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$16,245
• After-tax cash flow: $71,736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Hampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609660
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $86,309
• Composite: 57.85/100
• National rank: #1046
• State rank: #159 of 590 in NY

Livability — Northwest Harbor

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1007
• US rank: #19577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northwest Harbor, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 21,806
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+604.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $1,465,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $1,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-12 Listed $1,525,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 1997-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $208,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,199 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.