14615 115th Ave N · Dayton, MN 55327

$499,505

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,460 sqft · SingleFamily · 14 Days on market

Built 2026 8,712 sqft lot $203/sqft · 16% below area Est $596k · 16% under $60/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home is under construction and available for an August closing! Welcome to DCM Farms! Ideally located just minutes from Maple Grove and adjacent to Sundance Greens Golf Club, this brand-new master-planned community offers thoughtfully designed single-family homes. Experience thoughtful design and modern comfort in the Copperleaf, a beautifully crafted two-story home tailored for today’s busy lifestyles. The main level features an open-concept layout that brings together the Great Room with an electric fireplace, the dining area, and a well-appointed kitchen—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A main-level bedroom offers valuable flexibility, easily serving as a ho

Key facts

• Main level bedroom
• Electric fireplace
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• MAIN LEVEL BEDROOM
• OWNER'S SUITE
• OVERSIZED WALK IN CLOSET
• PEACEFUL NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Shared rooms: Other
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Associa) with quarterly fee of $181; Association services include snow removal and other community amenities; Builder association: Builders Association of the Twin Cities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 3-car garage
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; 200+ amp electric service; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; Two levels; New construction; Primary entry at main level
• Construction: Concrete and frame construction; Asphalt roof (age 8 years or less); Slab foundation; Built by Lennar
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Front porch; Sod included; Underground utilities; City street with curbs and paved roads; public maintenance

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Kitchen with center island
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms total; Main floor bedroom / Primary bedroom suite; Upper-level bedrooms and bonus room
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 three-quarter bathroom; Primary bathroom with double sink and private access
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Fireplace(s) heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Air-to-air exchanger; Humidifier; Tankless water heater; Paneled doors; In-ground sprinkler; Porch; Front porch; Primary bedroom with walk-through and private bath; Informal dining / kitchen-dining / living-dining configurations; Has electric fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer hookups; Laundry room (upper level) with gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-526 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $423k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $378k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $378k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.5% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#337 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Anoka-Hennepin Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #71 of 301 in MN (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dayton Elementary (math 64% / reading 64%, grade B, #157 of 857 statewide, top 19%, 702 students, 29% FRL); Jackson Middle (math 39% / reading 51%, grade D, #113 of 258 statewide, top 45%, 1,981 students, 43% FRL); Champlin Park High School (math 48% / reading 63%, grade C, #80 of 471 statewide, top 17%, 2,983 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $378,000 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.51%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $596,041
• List price: $499,505
• Delta: -16.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-114,334
• Equity at exit: $74,478

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-142,297
• Equity at exit: $43,188

Cash invested: $139,861 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55327

• Home prices YoY: -33.6%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,780 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,619
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$624 /mo · $7,493/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$794
• Net cashflow: $-526

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,446

Max offer price $423,426

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-181	-5% $-353	+0% $-526	+5% $-698	+10% $-871
Rent	-10% $-824	-5% $-675	+0% $-526	+5% $-376	+10% $-227
Rate	-1.0pp $-274	-0.5pp $-399	base $-526	+0.5pp $-655	+1.0pp $-787

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,876
• Closing costs: $14,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10339 Orchid Ln N Maple Grove, MN	2.0–4.0	2.5	1591	$3,780	$2.38	0d	11	0.75mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-13
   listed $514,505 Active 507-char remark
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $514,505 Active 1191-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,360
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,980
• − Property taxes: −$7,493
• − Insurance: −$2,498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,629
• − Management: −$3,629
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$14,531
• Taxable loss: −$15,119
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,629
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,681/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anoka-Hennepin Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2703180
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $73,837
• Composite: 46.7/100
• National rank: #2400
• State rank: #71 of 301 in MN

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #337
• US rank: #7753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayton, MN
• City population: 5,542
• Population (ZIP): 5,542

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Asian 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Romanian 8% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.93%
• Current HPI: 248.4283
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+1.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $522,505 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $499,505 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Listed $514,505 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid