417 E Jones St · Pettus, TX 78146

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 708 sqft · SingleFamily · 283 Days on market

Built 1950 Fair condition 5,000 sqft lot $106/sqft · 55% above area ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

A 5 year old metal roof covers this cozy 2 bedroom 1 bath home that has a nice yard along with a large pecan tree that is approx. 70 years old , also there is a beautiful large Live Oak tree in the back yard. There is a nice 10" X 12" storage shed that remains along with the range, refrigerator, freezer, washer and dryer.; Original MLS#: 113326; Appliances: Freezer; Deed Restrictions: ; Gas Co: Other; Home Warranty: No; Land Dimensions: 50 X 100; Land Size Apx: .1148 ac.; Property Condition: Good; Property Exclusions: Personal property.; Room List: Kitchen/Dining; Showing: Appointment Needed; Water District: Yes; Water Heater: Natural Gas; Windows: Single Pane

Key facts

• Pecan tree
• Metal roof
• Storage shed

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• PECAN TREE
• LIVE OAK TREE
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $238 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#846 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Pettus ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #829 of 1,141 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pettus El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 180 students, 72% FRL); Pettus Secondary (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 221 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Bee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Bee County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 283 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 283 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.78%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $48,256
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: 55.42%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $24,310
• Equity at exit: $33,723

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $65,406
• Equity at exit: $51,972

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78146

• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,116 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $815

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $290	-5% $264	+0% $238	+5% $212	+10% $187
Rent	-10% $150	-5% $194	+0% $238	+5% $282	+10% $327
Rate	-1.0pp $276	-0.5pp $257	base $238	+0.5pp $219	+1.0pp $199

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 283 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 282 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 281 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 280 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 279 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 277 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 276 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 273 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 272 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 271 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 270 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 267 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 266 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 265 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 264 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 263 DOM
17. 2026-01-22
    price $75,000 678-char remark

    Show marketing remark (678 chars)

    A 5 year old metal roof covers this cozy 2 bedroom 1 bath home that has a nice yard along with a large pecan tree that is approx. 70 years old , also there is a beautiful large Live Oak tree in the back yard. There is a nice 10" X 12" storage shed that remains along with the range, refrigerator, freezer, washer and dryer.; Original MLS#: 113326; Appliances: Freezer; Deed Restrictions: ; Gas Co: Other; Home Warranty: No; Land Dimensions: 50 X 100; Land Size Apx: .1148 ac.; Property Condition: Good; Property Exclusions: Personal property.; Room List: Kitchen/Dining; Showing: Appointment Needed; Water District: Yes; Water Heater: Natural Gas; Windows: Single Pane

18. 2025-03-03
    listed $84,500 Active 678-char remark

    Show marketing remark (678 chars)

    A 5 year old metal roof covers this cozy 2 bedroom 1 bath home that has a nice yard along with a large pecan tree that is approx. 70 years old , also there is a beautiful large Live Oak tree in the back yard. There is a nice 10" X 12" storage shed that remains along with the range, refrigerator, freezer, washer and dryer.; Original MLS#: 113326; Appliances: Freezer; Deed Restrictions: ; Gas Co: Other; Home Warranty: No; Land Dimensions: 50 X 100; Land Size Apx: .1148 ac.; Property Condition: Good; Property Exclusions: Personal property.; Room List: Kitchen/Dining; Showing: Appointment Needed; Water District: Yes; Water Heater: Natural Gas; Windows: Single Pane

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,396
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$1,877
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,072
• − Management: −$1,072
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $1,867
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$448
• After-tax cash flow: $2,412/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 5-year-old home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathroom, and paint the exterior. It has a good roof and foundation, but the dated interior and single-pane windows could be improved to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Minor bathroom fixtures — slightly worn but functional
• Minor HVAC unit — visible but no signs of malfunction

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
• Resale update kitchen cabinets — modernizes the space
• Resale replace bathroom fixtures — improves functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · slightly worn but functional	Minor	$500–3,000
HVAC unit · visible but no signs of malfunction	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$4,000–21,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale update kitchen cabinets — modernizes the space ↑
• Resale replace bathroom fixtures — improves functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pettus ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834770
• Math proficiency: 36% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,570
• Composite: 33.83/100
• National rank: #10377
• State rank: #829 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Pettus

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #846
• US rank: #15296

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pettus, TX
• Population (ZIP): 740

Population outlook (Bee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,003 people
• By 2030: 36,447 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 39,810 · +13.7%
• By 2050: 43,525 · +24.3%
• By 2075: 51,766 · +47.9%
• By 2100: 53,434 · +52.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Two or more races 50% White 42% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 23%

Political lean MEDSL · Bee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.6% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.1pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+28.9 2016: R+15.4 2012: R+11.5 2008: R+10.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $75,000 LERA
• 2025-03-03 Listed $84,500 LERA