5 Stevens Cir · Aquia Harbour, VA 22556

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 10,101 sqft · SingleFamily · 94 Days on market

Built 1989 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 3 parking spots
• Built 1989
• Listed 93 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 3.5% in Aquia Harbour — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#254 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Stafford County Public School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #42 of 131 in VA (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 361 units permitted in Stafford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stafford County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,300 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.12%
• DSCR: 2.78
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $56,475
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.10×
• Total profit: $149,137
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22556

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,678 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $1,217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,307	-5% $1,262	+0% $1,217	+5% $1,172	+10% $1,127
Rent	-10% $1,005	-5% $1,111	+0% $1,217	+5% $1,323	+10% $1,428
Rate	-1.0pp $1,282	-0.5pp $1,250	base $1,217	+0.5pp $1,183	+1.0pp $1,149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $130,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $130,000 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-03-19
    listed $130,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,130
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,570
• − Management: −$2,570
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $13,325
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,198
• After-tax cash flow: $11,404/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It's move-in ready with potential for value increase through exterior painting and landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and value
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernizes and improves curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernizes and improves curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stafford County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103660
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $96,389
• Composite: 54.61/100
• National rank: #1336
• State rank: #42 of 131 in VA

Livability — Aquia Harbour

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #8617

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Stafford County · 161,536 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 31,785
• Household income: $137,287
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 332.0

Population outlook (Stafford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,882 people
• By 2030: 183,934 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 211,031 · +24.2%
• By 2050: 235,391 · +38.6%
• By 2075: 297,080 · +74.9%
• By 2100: 334,680 · +97.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 15% Two or more races 11% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stafford

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.6% · R 48.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+3.3 2016: R+9.1 2012: R+8.8 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.72%
• Current HPI: 284.4747
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $130,000 BRIGHT MLS