2526 Sherwood Dr · Erie, PA 16506

$64,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 952 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1993 $400/mo HOA · 29% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-Kept Mobile Home Located On A Double Lot! Offering A Large Eat-In Kitchen And A Spacious Living Room, Perfect For Everyday Living And Entertaining. This Home Features 2 Bedrooms And 1.5 Baths, Along With A Covered Porch For Relaxing Outdoors. Two Storage Sheds Provide Ample Space For Tools And Extras. As An Extra Bonus There Is An Enclosed Porch In The Rear. Ramp Is Not Included In The Sale. Buyer Must Be Approved By Park. Cash Offers Only.

Key facts

• Built 1993
• Listed 28 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $279 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Millcreek Township SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #105 of 539 in PA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.

Recommended offer $63,926 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.40%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $7,469
• Equity at exit: $9,677

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $30,330
• Equity at exit: $5,611

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16506

• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,373 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $467/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,021

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1428 Fairfax Ave Erie, PA	1.0	1.0	560	$895	$1.60	44d	1	0.73mi
1046 Grace St Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,400	$1.65	44d	1	0.81mi
5040 W Ridge Rd Unit 502 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	650	$895	$1.38	44d	1	0.97mi
4060 Chilton Ct Unit 2 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	768	$1,400	$1.82	44d	1	1.12mi
3738 W 12th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	925	$1,180	$1.28	44d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $400 · $4,800/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $64,900 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,900 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $64,900 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,900 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $64,900 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $64,900 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $64,900 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $64,900 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $64,900 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $64,900 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $64,900 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $64,900 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $64,900 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-04-27
    status Pending
18. 2026-04-22
    price $69,900
19. 2026-04-20
    listed $71,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $467 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $746 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: +$279/yr (+$23/mo · 59.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$467
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,318
• − Management: −$1,318
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $2,728
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$655
• After-tax cash flow: $2,689/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millcreek Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4215330
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,734
• Composite: 47.82/100
• National rank: #2224
• State rank: #105 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,070
• Household income: $81,060
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 894.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Asian 4% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.21%
• Current HPI: 228.7506
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-2.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $69,900 GEBOR
• 2026-04-20 Listed $71,900 GEBOR

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $467 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.