838 Fort Henry St · Petersburg, VA 23803

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1954 $185/sqft · 5% below area Est $169k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice rancher in Petersburg with three (3) bedrooms and one (1) full bath. Hardwood floors in living room, eat in kitchen, deck on rear and covered porch on front. Fenced yard, off street parking and concrete driveway. Property is currently rented. Please allow at least 24 hour notice.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Off street parking
• Fenced yard

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• DECK ON REAR
• COVERED PORCH
• FENCED YARD
• OFF STREET PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $82 ($979/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.5% in Petersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#413 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Petersburg City Public School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #131 of 131 in VA (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 290 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 118 units permitted in Petersburg city in 2024 (84 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Petersburg County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 5.9% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $160k implies a 421% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 41% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,337 (11.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.19%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,511
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -5.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
807 Mckenzie St	0.06mi	3/1.0	864 (0%)	0mo	$175,000	$203	97
810 Fort Henry St	0.07mi	3/1.0	936 (+8%)	5mo	$100,000	$107	78
806 Fort Henry St	0.08mi	3/1.0	936 (+8%)	7mo	$147,000	$157	77
3317 Main St	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	926 (+7%)	4mo	$175,000	$189	67
520 Pegram St	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	893 (+3%)	1mo	$165,000	$185	54
3608 Main St	0.43mi	3/1.0	952 (+10%)	12mo	$234,950	$247	53
1124 W Wythe St	0.52mi	3/2.0	960 (+11%)	2mo	$162,500	$169	52
1232 Commerce St	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	930 (+8%)	10mo	$65,000	$70	50
21103 Rutledge Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0	936 (+8%)	13mo	$225,000	$240	45
1156 W Wythe St	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	784 (-9%)	13mo	$145,000	$185	43
426 S South St	0.70mi	3/1.0	768 (-11%)	11mo	$160,000	$208	40
406 S West St	0.69mi	3/1.0	981 (+14%)	18mo	$179,900	$183	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.45% appreciation · 5.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $15,972
• Equity at exit: $58,390

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $73,563
• Equity at exit: $80,598

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23803

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.9%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,423 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,646/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,320

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
214 N Dunlop St Unit 404 Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	863	$1,400	$1.62	43d	1	0.14mi
214 N Dunlop St Apt 305 Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	945	$1,350	$1.43	44d	1	0.14mi
214 N Dunlop St Unit 119 Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	988	$1,399	$1.42	43d	1	0.14mi
214 N Dunlop St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	799	$1,395	$1.74	1d	11	0.14mi
214 N Dunlop St Unit 400 Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	892	$1,500	$1.68	43d	1	0.20mi
714 High St Apt E Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	924	$1,300	$1.41	21d	1	0.20mi
3301 Main St Unit A South Chesterfield, VA	2.0	1.0	990	$1,150	$1.16	1d	1	0.28mi
801 Hinton St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$1,399	$1.68	19d	2	0.28mi
801 Hinton St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	745	$1,395	$1.87	1d	8	0.28mi
212 S Dunlop St Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	43d	1	0.50mi
3716 Totty St South Chesterfield, VA	3.0	1.0	1092	$1,700	$1.56	43d	1	0.53mi
929 Farmer St Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	850	$895	$1.05	23d	1	0.54mi
408 S West St Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,095	$1.22	21d	1	0.67mi
1111 Stainback St Apt 2 Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	750	$895	$1.19	43d	1	0.70mi
109 Perry St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,577	$2.00	2d	15	0.70mi
1121 Stainback St Unit 2108 Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	800	$995	$1.24	23d	1	0.71mi
1121 Stainback St Unit 5202 Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	800	$995	$1.24	43d	1	0.71mi
325 Brown St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,310	$1.69	21d	2	0.73mi
325 Brown St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	797	$1,395	$1.75	14d	9	0.73mi
16 S Market St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	769	$2,312	$3.01	1d	17	0.73mi
9 S Market St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	721	$1,350	$1.87	17d	6	0.77mi
20900 Riverterrace Rd Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,262	$1.33	1d	4	0.94mi
406 Bradsher Ave Unit A Colonial Heights, VA	2.0	1.0	940	$1,050	$1.12	23d	1	0.98mi
30 Franklin St Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0–2.0	755	$1,550	$2.05	19d	1	0.98mi
20304 Loyal Ave South Chesterfield, VA	3.0	1.0	991	$1,650	$1.66	20d	1	1.13mi
250 E Bank St Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0–2.0	862	$1,509	$1.75	1d	19	1.17mi
114 Lee Ave Colonial Heights, VA	2.0	1.5	1088	$1,750	$1.61	23d	1	1.21mi
1131 Hawk St Petersburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	43d	1	1.37mi
1528 Lincoln St Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	673	$895	$1.33	16d	1	1.44mi
217 N Carolina Ave Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	718	$1,025	$1.43	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 285-char remark

   Show marketing remark (285 chars)

   Nice rancher in Petersburg with three (3) bedrooms and one (1) full bath. Hardwood floors in living room, eat in kitchen, deck on rear and covered porch on front. Fenced yard, off street parking and concrete driveway. Property is currently rented. Please allow at least 24 hour notice.

2. 2026-03-13
   listed $160,000 Active 285-char remark

   Show marketing remark (285 chars)

   Nice rancher in Petersburg with three (3) bedrooms and one (1) full bath. Hardwood floors in living room, eat in kitchen, deck on rear and covered porch on front. Fenced yard, off street parking and concrete driveway. Property is currently rented. Please allow at least 24 hour notice.

3. 1994-05-20
   soldstatus $30,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,646 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,646 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 41% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,646
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,366
• − Management: −$1,366
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$1,715
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$412
• After-tax cash flow: $1,391/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Petersburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102910
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,362
• Composite: 28.78/100
• National rank: #6670
• State rank: #131 of 131 in VA

Livability — Petersburg

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #413
• US rank: #17309

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A Health & safety B- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Petersburg, VA
• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• City population: 63,420
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 42,012
• Household income: $57,813
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2485.0

Population outlook (Petersburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,488 people
• By 2030: 29,771 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 28,401 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 27,279 · -10.5%
• By 2075: 25,877 · -15.1%
• By 2100: 24,288 · -20.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Petersburg

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+72.8) · D 85.8% · R 13.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 78.5pp · 2024: 72.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+72.8 2020: D+76.5 2016: D+77.0 2012: D+80.4 2008: D+78.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.45%
• Current HPI: 480.5365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.89%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+421.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $160,000 CVRMLS
• 1994-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $30,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,646 · +47.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.