3500 S Beryl Ave · Tucson Estates, AZ 85735

$150,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1999 5,053 sqft lot $107/sqft · 32% below area Est $237k · 37% under $97/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced to sell. Enjoy owning this lovely 2-bedroom home featuring carport parking and low-care desert landscape! Check out the inside to find an inviting living room that flows seamlessly into the dining area. Vaulted ceilings add to the airy feel, complemented by a blend of tile & carpet flooring, a neutral palette, and lots of natural light. In the kitchen, you will have matching appliances, a mosaic tile backsplash, plenty of cabinet space, and solid surface counters. The primary bedroom offers a sitting room, a walk-in closet, and a private bathroom for added comfort. Fantastic Arizona room adds extra space, perfect for entertaining guests, arts and crafts or relaxing year-round.

Key facts

• Desert landscape
• Dining area
• Carport parking

Tags

• CARPORT PARKING
• DESERT LANDSCAPE
• INVITING LIVING ROOM
• DINING AREA
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• TILE FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $368 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.4% in Tucson Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#137 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $150k implies a 369% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.52%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,530
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -36.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3524 S Beryl Ave	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,464 (+4%)	3mo	$255,000	$174	89
3418 S Cadmium Loop	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,364 (-3%)	12mo	$239,000	$175	82
3335 S Feldspar Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,477 (+5%)	4mo	$285,000	$193	76
7496 W Bopp Rd	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	7mo	$128,000	$89	76
3313 S Spectrum Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-4%)	10mo	$323,000	$240	70
3478 S Goldleaf Loop	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,508 (+7%)	11mo	$222,000	$147	69
7707 W Copper Nugget Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,568 (+12%)	7mo	$260,000	$166	67
3650 S White Gold Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+12%)	5mo	$192,700	$123	64
7751 W Gypsum St	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-12%)	11mo	$207,500	$168	62
7730 W Edgestone St	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+12%)	4mo	$225,000	$143	62
7771 W Touchstone St	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-11%)	12mo	$150,000	$120	61
4175 S Desert Spur Ln	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,300 (-7%)	8mo	$115,000	$88	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-819
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $29,624
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85735

• Home prices YoY: -16.4%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,792 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,217/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$97
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,326

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $97 · $1,164/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $150,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    status Active 696-char remark

    Show marketing remark (696 chars)

    Priced to sell. Enjoy owning this lovely 2-bedroom home featuring carport parking and low-care desert landscape! Check out the inside to find an inviting living room that flows seamlessly into the dining area. Vaulted ceilings add to the airy feel, complemented by a blend of tile & carpet flooring, a neutral palette, and lots of natural light. In the kitchen, you will have matching appliances, a mosaic tile backsplash, plenty of cabinet space, and solid surface counters. The primary bedroom offers a sitting room, a walk-in closet, and a private bathroom for added comfort. Fantastic Arizona room adds extra space, perfect for entertaining guests, arts and crafts or relaxing year-round.

16. 2026-04-14
    historical Active Contingent 696-char remark

    Show marketing remark (696 chars)

    Priced to sell. Enjoy owning this lovely 2-bedroom home featuring carport parking and low-care desert landscape! Check out the inside to find an inviting living room that flows seamlessly into the dining area. Vaulted ceilings add to the airy feel, complemented by a blend of tile & carpet flooring, a neutral palette, and lots of natural light. In the kitchen, you will have matching appliances, a mosaic tile backsplash, plenty of cabinet space, and solid surface counters. The primary bedroom offers a sitting room, a walk-in closet, and a private bathroom for added comfort. Fantastic Arizona room adds extra space, perfect for entertaining guests, arts and crafts or relaxing year-round.

17. 2026-04-09
    listed $160,000 Active 696-char remark

    Show marketing remark (696 chars)

    Priced to sell. Enjoy owning this lovely 2-bedroom home featuring carport parking and low-care desert landscape! Check out the inside to find an inviting living room that flows seamlessly into the dining area. Vaulted ceilings add to the airy feel, complemented by a blend of tile & carpet flooring, a neutral palette, and lots of natural light. In the kitchen, you will have matching appliances, a mosaic tile backsplash, plenty of cabinet space, and solid surface counters. The primary bedroom offers a sitting room, a walk-in closet, and a private bathroom for added comfort. Fantastic Arizona room adds extra space, perfect for entertaining guests, arts and crafts or relaxing year-round.

18. 2026-03-24
    historical
19. 2026-02-18
    price $240,000
20. 2026-01-29
    price $245,000
21. 2025-12-29
    listed $250,000 Active
22. 1999-02-24
    soldstatus $31,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,217 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,217 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,506
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,217
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,720
• − Management: −$1,720
• − HOA: −$1,164
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $2,168
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$520
• After-tax cash flow: $3,899/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #16650

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson Estates, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 10,893

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 41% Two or more races 19% Native American 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.03%
• Current HPI: 301.1413
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+400.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-14 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-09 Listed $160,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-24 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $240,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $245,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-29 Listed $250,000 MLSSAZ
• 1999-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $31,950 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,217 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.