11423 Route 98 · Arcade, NY 14065

$39,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,225 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 110 Days on market

Built 1900 2.35 ac lot $33/sqft · 81% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 11423 Route 98 - This property offers two first floor bedrooms and 1 full bathroom on 2.35 acres of land. Large, detached pole barn with electric and heat sits behind the house with full 2nd floor for storage.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• First floor bedrooms
• Detached pole barn

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR BEDROOMS
• FULL BATHROOM
• DETACHED POLE BARN
• 2ND FLOOR FOR STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $615 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#774 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Yorkshire-Pioneer Central School District (town): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #358 of 590 in NY (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $36,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.07%
• DSCR: 3.94
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $207,238
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -80.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11381 Route 98	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,404 (+15%)	2mo	$130,000	$93	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.46% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 73.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.43×
• Total profit: $49,441
• Equity at exit: $23,729

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.7%
• Equity multiple: 11.31×
• Total profit: $115,166
• Equity at exit: $41,909

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14065

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,128 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $615

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,900 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 101 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 100 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,900 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $39,900 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $59,900 Active 95 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,900 Active 94 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,900 Active 93 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,900 Active 92 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    price $59,900 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Welcome to 11423 Route 98 - This property offers two first floor bedrooms and 1 full bathroom on 2.35 acres of land. Large, detached pole barn with electric and heat sits behind the house with full 2nd floor for storage.

16. 2026-03-31
    price $69,900 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Welcome to 11423 Route 98 - This property offers two first floor bedrooms and 1 full bathroom on 2.35 acres of land. Large, detached pole barn with electric and heat sits behind the house with full 2nd floor for storage.

17. 2026-02-27
    listed $72,900 Active 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Welcome to 11423 Route 98 - This property offers two first floor bedrooms and 1 full bathroom on 2.35 acres of land. Large, detached pole barn with electric and heat sits behind the house with full 2nd floor for storage.

18. 2014-12-15
    soldstatus $59,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,083
• − Management: −$1,083
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $7,173
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,722
• After-tax cash flow: $5,660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yorkshire-Pioneer Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3608970
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,735
• Composite: 44.02/100
• National rank: #2885
• State rank: #358 of 590 in NY

Livability — Arcade

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #774
• US rank: #14787

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,769

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Iranian 1% Polish 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.46%
• Current HPI: 250.5231
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $59,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $69,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $72,900 WNYREIS
• 2014-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $59,300 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,202 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.