4444 Sundance Way · Harold, FL 32564

$215,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,422 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 207 Days on market

Built 1980 2.16 ac lot $89/sqft · 11% below area Est $241k · 11% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set in the quiet beauty of the Yellow River Valley, 4444 Sundance Way offers a rare opportunity for an investor or renovation-ready buyer. The property fronts Blue Lake and includes a 2,422 sq ft, 3BR/3BA home on two adjoining 1.08-acre parcels for over 2 acres total. Outdoor features include a pole barn and expansive grounds with potential to open up scenic water views. This is not a turn-key home and is being sold strictly As-Is. Known needs include a new roof, HVAC system, interior and exterior renovations, inspections of the well and septic, and a survey. No repairs will be made by the seller. Not suitable for conventional financing. Cash buyers only. Please note Sundance Way is a dirt/sand road and may require 4WD, especially after heavy rain. Ideal for investors, builders, or Cash buyers only. Situated on over 2 acres in Holt, FL, this 3BR/3BA home offers 2,422 sq ft and strong potential for renovation or investment. Sale includes an additional adjoining parcel, providing added space and flexibility. Property requires a new roof, HVAC, and full interior and exterior updates, along with inspections of the well and septic. Survey will be needed. Sundance Way is a dirt/sand road and may require 4WD after heavy rain. Ideal for investors or buyers seeking a project with acreage and long-term upside. Property sold as-is. Buyers to perform all due diligence. Schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Spacious residence
• Generous lot
• Peaceful backdrop

Tags

• LAKE FRONT LIVING
• TWO ACRES
• SPACIOUS RESIDENCE
• GENEROUS LOT
• SECOND PARCEL
• PEACEFUL BACKDROP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-261 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (21.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (32.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#69 in FL, #1,163 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (7.9% local appreciation)).
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 207 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,192 (32.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 207 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.19%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $241,236
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -10.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

7.86% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $70,006
• Equity at exit: $161,271

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.58×
• Total profit: $215,343
• Equity at exit: $318,166

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32564

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,462 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,381/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $-261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,792

Max offer price $168,974

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-139	-5% $-200	+0% $-261	+5% $-321	+10% $-382
Rent	-10% $-376	-5% $-318	+0% $-261	+5% $-203	+10% $-145
Rate	-1.0pp $-152	-0.5pp $-206	base $-261	+0.5pp $-316	+1.0pp $-373

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $215,000 Active 207 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 204 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 203 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 202 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 201 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 199 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 198 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 196 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 195 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $215,000 Active 194 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 193 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $215,000 Active 190 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 188 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 187 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 186 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $215,000 Active 185 DOM
17. 2026-04-27
    price $215,000 1408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1408 chars)

    Set in the quiet beauty of the Yellow River Valley, 4444 Sundance Way offers a rare opportunity for an investor or renovation-ready buyer. The property fronts Blue Lake and includes a 2,422 sq ft, 3BR/3BA home on two adjoining 1.08-acre parcels for over 2 acres total. Outdoor features include a pole barn and expansive grounds with potential to open up scenic water views. This is not a turn-key home and is being sold strictly As-Is. Known needs include a new roof, HVAC system, interior and exterior renovations, inspections of the well and septic, and a survey. No repairs will be made by the seller. Not suitable for conventional financing. Cash buyers only. Please note Sundance Way is a dirt/sand road and may require 4WD, especially after heavy rain. Ideal for investors, builders, or Cash buyers only. Situated on over 2 acres in Holt, FL, this 3BR/3BA home offers 2,422 sq ft and strong potential for renovation or investment. Sale includes an additional adjoining parcel, providing added space and flexibility. Property requires a new roof, HVAC, and full interior and exterior updates, along with inspections of the well and septic. Survey will be needed. Sundance Way is a dirt/sand road and may require 4WD after heavy rain. Ideal for investors or buyers seeking a project with acreage and long-term upside. Property sold as-is. Buyers to perform all due diligence. Schedule your showing today.

18. 2026-04-04
    price $230,000 1408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1408 chars)

    Set in the quiet beauty of the Yellow River Valley, 4444 Sundance Way offers a rare opportunity for an investor or renovation-ready buyer. The property fronts Blue Lake and includes a 2,422 sq ft, 3BR/3BA home on two adjoining 1.08-acre parcels for over 2 acres total. Outdoor features include a pole barn and expansive grounds with potential to open up scenic water views. This is not a turn-key home and is being sold strictly As-Is. Known needs include a new roof, HVAC system, interior and exterior renovations, inspections of the well and septic, and a survey. No repairs will be made by the seller. Not suitable for conventional financing. Cash buyers only. Please note Sundance Way is a dirt/sand road and may require 4WD, especially after heavy rain. Ideal for investors, builders, or Cash buyers only. Situated on over 2 acres in Holt, FL, this 3BR/3BA home offers 2,422 sq ft and strong potential for renovation or investment. Sale includes an additional adjoining parcel, providing added space and flexibility. Property requires a new roof, HVAC, and full interior and exterior updates, along with inspections of the well and septic. Survey will be needed. Sundance Way is a dirt/sand road and may require 4WD after heavy rain. Ideal for investors or buyers seeking a project with acreage and long-term upside. Property sold as-is. Buyers to perform all due diligence. Schedule your showing today.

19. 2026-03-10
    price $249,900 1408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1408 chars)

    Set in the quiet beauty of the Yellow River Valley, 4444 Sundance Way offers a rare opportunity for an investor or renovation-ready buyer. The property fronts Blue Lake and includes a 2,422 sq ft, 3BR/3BA home on two adjoining 1.08-acre parcels for over 2 acres total. Outdoor features include a pole barn and expansive grounds with potential to open up scenic water views. This is not a turn-key home and is being sold strictly As-Is. Known needs include a new roof, HVAC system, interior and exterior renovations, inspections of the well and septic, and a survey. No repairs will be made by the seller. Not suitable for conventional financing. Cash buyers only. Please note Sundance Way is a dirt/sand road and may require 4WD, especially after heavy rain. Ideal for investors, builders, or Cash buyers only. Situated on over 2 acres in Holt, FL, this 3BR/3BA home offers 2,422 sq ft and strong potential for renovation or investment. Sale includes an additional adjoining parcel, providing added space and flexibility. Property requires a new roof, HVAC, and full interior and exterior updates, along with inspections of the well and septic. Survey will be needed. Sundance Way is a dirt/sand road and may require 4WD after heavy rain. Ideal for investors or buyers seeking a project with acreage and long-term upside. Property sold as-is. Buyers to perform all due diligence. Schedule your showing today.

20. 2026-01-06
    price $265,000 1408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1408 chars)

    Set in the quiet beauty of the Yellow River Valley, 4444 Sundance Way offers a rare opportunity for an investor or renovation-ready buyer. The property fronts Blue Lake and includes a 2,422 sq ft, 3BR/3BA home on two adjoining 1.08-acre parcels for over 2 acres total. Outdoor features include a pole barn and expansive grounds with potential to open up scenic water views. This is not a turn-key home and is being sold strictly As-Is. Known needs include a new roof, HVAC system, interior and exterior renovations, inspections of the well and septic, and a survey. No repairs will be made by the seller. Not suitable for conventional financing. Cash buyers only. Please note Sundance Way is a dirt/sand road and may require 4WD, especially after heavy rain. Ideal for investors, builders, or Cash buyers only. Situated on over 2 acres in Holt, FL, this 3BR/3BA home offers 2,422 sq ft and strong potential for renovation or investment. Sale includes an additional adjoining parcel, providing added space and flexibility. Property requires a new roof, HVAC, and full interior and exterior updates, along with inspections of the well and septic. Survey will be needed. Sundance Way is a dirt/sand road and may require 4WD after heavy rain. Ideal for investors or buyers seeking a project with acreage and long-term upside. Property sold as-is. Buyers to perform all due diligence. Schedule your showing today.

21. 2025-11-25
    listed $270,000 Active 1408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1408 chars)

    Set in the quiet beauty of the Yellow River Valley, 4444 Sundance Way offers a rare opportunity for an investor or renovation-ready buyer. The property fronts Blue Lake and includes a 2,422 sq ft, 3BR/3BA home on two adjoining 1.08-acre parcels for over 2 acres total. Outdoor features include a pole barn and expansive grounds with potential to open up scenic water views. This is not a turn-key home and is being sold strictly As-Is. Known needs include a new roof, HVAC system, interior and exterior renovations, inspections of the well and septic, and a survey. No repairs will be made by the seller. Not suitable for conventional financing. Cash buyers only. Please note Sundance Way is a dirt/sand road and may require 4WD, especially after heavy rain. Ideal for investors, builders, or Cash buyers only. Situated on over 2 acres in Holt, FL, this 3BR/3BA home offers 2,422 sq ft and strong potential for renovation or investment. Sale includes an additional adjoining parcel, providing added space and flexibility. Property requires a new roof, HVAC, and full interior and exterior updates, along with inspections of the well and septic. Survey will be needed. Sundance Way is a dirt/sand road and may require 4WD after heavy rain. Ideal for investors or buyers seeking a project with acreage and long-term upside. Property sold as-is. Buyers to perform all due diligence. Schedule your showing today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,381 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,381 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,543
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$2,381
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,403
• − Management: −$1,403
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$7,017
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,684
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,442/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Harold

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #69
• US rank: #1163

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,958

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.86%
• Current HPI: 286.6227
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-20.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $215,000 ECAR
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $230,000 ECAR
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $249,900 ECAR
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $265,000 ECAR
• 2025-11-25 Listed $270,000 ECAR

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,381 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.