1225 Rockspring Way · Antioch, CA 94531

$439,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,631 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1996 4,940 sqft lot $269/sqft · 29% below area Est $615k · 29% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained residence built in 1996, located in a desirable neighborhood of Antioch. This property offers an ideal blend of functionality, space, and convenience. The home features a thoughtfully designed floor plan encompassing approximately 1,631 square feet of living space, with generous living areas, abundant natural light, and a seamless flow throughout. The property offers 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, including a spacious primary suite designed as a comfortable and relaxing retreat. Large private yard for outdoor enjoyment and gardening. Conveniently situated near local schools, parks, shopping centers, and major commuter routes, this home provides easy access to surrounding amen

Key facts

• Large private yard
• 4,940 sq ft lot
• Built 1996

Tags

• WELL MAINTAINED RESIDENCE
• LARGE PRIVATE YARD
• EASY ACCESS TO AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Built in 1996
• Construction: Living/building area about 1,631 square feet
• Exterior features: Lot of approximately 4,940 square feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms (2 full, 1 half)
• Interior features: Entry level at grade

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $439k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $55 ($663/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $371k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $371k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Antioch Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #200 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 165 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $370,641 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.54%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $614,961
• List price: $439,000
• Delta: -28.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1225 Rockspring Way	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,631 (0%)	1mo	$476,000	$292	97
1525 Barkley Mountain Way	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,617 (-1%)	5mo	$485,000	$300	75
1505 Barkley Mountain Way	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,710 (+5%)	2mo	$644,000	$377	72
1157 Rockspring Way	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,473 (-10%)	1mo	$510,000	$346	71
4836 Belford Peak Way	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,625 (-0%)	4mo	$645,000	$397	71
5002 Hollow Ridge Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,715 (+5%)	8mo	$610,000	$356	70
5129 Tehachapi Way	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,745 (+7%)	8mo	$625,000	$358	66
5048 Tehachapi	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,710 (+5%)	8mo	$610,000	$357	63
4913 Stonewood Way	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,473 (-10%)	8mo	$550,000	$373	62
1713 Mount Hamilton Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,529 (-6%)	5mo	$590,000	$386	61
5009 Hillridge Way	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,476 (-10%)	0mo	$620,000	$420	61
5180 Tehachapi Way	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,872 (+15%)	8mo	$603,000	$322	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-62,599
• Equity at exit: $65,456

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-28,802
• Equity at exit: $37,957

Cash invested: $122,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94531

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,706 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax from tax record: −$388 /mo · $4,653/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$778
• Net cashflow: $55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,637

Max offer price $439,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,750
• Closing costs: $13,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1124 Ranch Point Way Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1715	$3,249	$1.89	44d	1	0.13mi
5163 Tehachapi Way Antioch, CA	4.0	2.0	1533	$3,300	$2.15	15d	1	0.24mi
5224 Cedar Ridge Way Antioch, CA	5.0	3.5	2240	$4,000	$1.79	15d	1	0.50mi
4145 Rockford Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.5	2022	$2,995	$1.48	44d	1	0.83mi
400 Redrock Dr Antioch, CA	4.0	3.0	2046	$1,000	$0.49	44d	1	0.84mi
4116 Jarosite Ct Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1866	$3,500	$1.88	20d	1	1.07mi
2605 Sage Ct Antioch, CA	4.0	2.0	2014	$3,200	$1.59	2d	1	1.28mi
108 El Capitan Ln Antioch, CA	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,695	$2.45	44d	1	1.40mi
3513 Clayburn Rd Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1224	$3,500	$2.86	44d	1	1.41mi
141 El Capitan Ln Antioch, CA	3.0	2.5	1236	$2,500	$2.02	44d	1	1.42mi
2433 Pearlite Way Antioch, CA	4.0	2.5	2063	$3,650	$1.77	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 718-char remark
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $439,000 Active 718-char remark
3. 2014-01-02
   soldstatus $310,000 Sold 291-char remark
4. 2013-12-19
   soldstatus $310,000
5. 2013-11-19
   status Pending 291-char remark
6. 2013-10-29
   listed $319,000 New 291-char remark
7. 2011-12-15
   soldstatus $175,000 Sold
8. 2011-12-14
   soldstatus $175,000
9. 2011-10-12
   status Pending - Subject to Lender Approval
10. 2011-10-07
    status Back On Market
11. 2011-10-03
    status Pending
12. 2011-09-19
    status Back On Market
13. 2011-08-30
    status Pending - Subject to Lender Approval
14. 2011-08-19
    price $169,000 Price Change
15. 2011-08-09
    price $180,000 Price Change
16. 2011-04-25
    price $199,000 Price Change
17. 2011-01-21
    listed $225,000 New
18. 2005-12-06
    soldstatus $510,000
19. 2004-06-29
    soldstatus $410,000
20. 2002-06-05
    historical
21. 2001-12-21
    soldstatus $259,000
22. 2001-12-21
    soldstatus $257,000
23. 2001-11-07
    historical
24. 2001-09-15
    listed $259,950
25. 1996-05-28
    soldstatus $153,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,653 · $388/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,653 · $388/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,477
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,591
• − Property taxes: −$4,653
• − Insurance: −$2,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,558
• − Management: −$3,558
• − Depreciation: −$12,771
• Taxable loss: −$6,849
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,644
• After-tax cash flow: $2,306/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Antioch Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602850
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 25.00%
• Median HH income: $65,935
• Composite: 37.57/100
• National rank: #4386
• State rank: #200 of 517 in CA

Livability — Antioch

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #782
• US rank: #22472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Antioch, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 116,477
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,387
• Household income: $120,927
• Rent vs Own: 26.8% rent · 73.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 24% White 23% Asian 20% Two or more races 14% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.21%
• Current HPI: 240.1175
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.34%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+211.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $476,000 Public Records
• 2026-05-20 Sold (MLS) $476,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-05-13 Pending — San Francisco MLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $439,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2013-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $310,000 Public Records
• 2011-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $510,000 Public Records
• 2004-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $410,000 Public Records
• 2001-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $257,000 Public Records
• 2001-12-21 Sold (MLS) $259,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2001-11-07 Delisted — San Francisco MLS
• 2001-09-15 Listed $259,950 San Francisco MLS
• 1996-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $153,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,653 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.