621 N 9th St · Melrose, NM 88124

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured · 260 Days on market

Built 2004 ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your slice of country paradise! This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath prestige double-wide offers the perfect blend of comfort and functionality. Step inside to find stunning woodwork, a cozy fireplace, and brand new flooring and fresh paint throughout, making it completely move-in ready. The metal roof adds durability and peace of mind, while the two sheds and two spacious shops provide all the space you need for storage, hobbies, or business potential. And yes, animals are allowed, so bring the chickens, goats, or horses and enjoy the wide-open space! Whether you’re looking to enjoy the quiet countryside or need room to grow, this property has it all. SELLER IS OP

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Fresh paint
• Over 2 acres

Tags

• OVER 2 ACRES
• STUNNING WOODWORK
• COZY FIREPLACE
• BRAND NEW FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT
• METAL ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport
• Utilities: Public water; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured house (double wide) on land; Single‑story
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Irregular lot; Workshop (other structure)

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher, microwave, free‑standing range, refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (electric); Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher, Microwave, Free‑Standing Range, Refrigerator, Water Heater; Electric fireplace in the living room; One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $115 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#142 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, employment D.
• Melrose Public Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #24 of 29 in NM (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 169 units permitted in Curry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Curry County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 260 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 260 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.10%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $21,787
• Equity at exit: $53,957

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $67,353
• Equity at exit: $83,154

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88124

• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,195 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $198	-5% $156	+0% $115	+5% $73	+10% $32
Rent	-10% $20	-5% $68	+0% $115	+5% $162	+10% $209
Rate	-1.0pp $175	-0.5pp $145	base $115	+0.5pp $84	+1.0pp $52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-14
   status Active
3. 2026-02-20
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-20
   price $120,000
5. 2025-09-15
   price $125,000
6. 2025-08-24
   price $130,000
7. 2025-08-07
   price $140,000
8. 2025-07-20
   listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,341
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,147
• − Management: −$1,147
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$566
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$136
• After-tax cash flow: $1,514/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Melrose Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501830
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -30.00%
• Median HH income: $38,315
• Composite: 20.95/100
• National rank: #8475
• State rank: #24 of 29 in NM

Livability — Melrose

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #20976

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Melrose, NM
• Population (ZIP): 907

Population outlook (Curry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,742 people
• By 2030: 47,759 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 45,444 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 42,403 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 33,878 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 22,414 · -54.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: German 3% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Curry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 27.8% · R 70.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: -34.1pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+40.6 2016: R+42.4 2012: R+38.6 2008: R+34.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-03-14 Relisted — NMMLS
• 2026-02-20 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $120,000 NMMLS
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $125,000 NMMLS
• 2025-08-24 Price Changed $130,000 NMMLS
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $140,000 NMMLS
• 2025-07-20 Listed $150,000 NMMLS