353 Ripley 142e-28b · Fairdealing, MO 63939

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Other public records · 65 Days on market

Built 2000 4.00 ac lot $153/sqft · 12% below area Est $288k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Secluded country living on 4 acres m/l-Peace, Privacy, & Scenic Views! Escape to your own private retreat with this unique 3-bedroom, 2 full bath earthen home nestled at the end of a quiet dead-end road. Surrounded by nature and offering breathtaking scenic views, this property is perfect for those seeking tranquility and space. The spacious primary suite features a stand-alone shower and a relaxing corner soaking tub, creating the perfect place to unwind. A large kitchen with abundant cabinetry provides plenty of storage and room for cooking and entertaining. A full-length covered front porch, ideal for morning coffee or sunsets. The property also includes a double carport, a shed with workshop and lean-to, and a versatile she shed or man cave complete with window air-perfect for a craft room, hobby space, or private getaway. If you are looking for privacy, space, and country charm, this one checks all the boxes!!

Key facts

• Soaking tub
• Stand-alone shower
• Large kitchen

Tags

• SCENIC VIEWS
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY SUITE
• STAND-ALONE SHOWER
• SOAKING TUB
• LARGE KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-441 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (35.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (50.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (50.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#464 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Doniphan R-I (rural): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #254 of 324 in MO (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Doniphan Elem. (378 students, 99% FRL); Doniphan Middle (math 15% / reading 33%, grade F, #326 of 391 statewide, top 84%, 361 students, 99% FRL); Doniphan High (math 54% / reading 57%, grade C, #61 of 521 statewide, top 12%, 476 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 63% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Ripley County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,266 (50.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.60%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 16.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $287,776
• List price: $219,900
• Delta: -23.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $91,540
• Equity at exit: $198,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $291,443
• Equity at exit: $427,217

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63939

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 16.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,093 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $717/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $-441

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,651

Max offer price $141,939

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-317	-5% $-379	+0% $-441	+5% $-504	+10% $-566
Rent	-10% $-528	-5% $-484	+0% $-441	+5% $-398	+10% $-355
Rate	-1.0pp $-331	-0.5pp $-385	base $-441	+0.5pp $-498	+1.0pp $-556

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,900 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,900 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $219,900 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $219,900 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,900 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,900 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,900 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,900 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    status Active 932-char remark

    Show marketing remark (932 chars)

    Secluded country living on 4 acres m/l-Peace, Privacy, & Scenic Views! Escape to your own private retreat with this unique 3-bedroom, 2 full bath earthen home nestled at the end of a quiet dead-end road. Surrounded by nature and offering breathtaking scenic views, this property is perfect for those seeking tranquility and space. The spacious primary suite features a stand-alone shower and a relaxing corner soaking tub, creating the perfect place to unwind. A large kitchen with abundant cabinetry provides plenty of storage and room for cooking and entertaining. A full-length covered front porch, ideal for morning coffee or sunsets. The property also includes a double carport, a shed with workshop and lean-to, and a versatile she shed or man cave complete with window air-perfect for a craft room, hobby space, or private getaway. If you are looking for privacy, space, and country charm, this one checks all the boxes!!

18. 2026-05-08
    historical Active Under Contract 932-char remark

    Show marketing remark (932 chars)

    Secluded country living on 4 acres m/l-Peace, Privacy, & Scenic Views! Escape to your own private retreat with this unique 3-bedroom, 2 full bath earthen home nestled at the end of a quiet dead-end road. Surrounded by nature and offering breathtaking scenic views, this property is perfect for those seeking tranquility and space. The spacious primary suite features a stand-alone shower and a relaxing corner soaking tub, creating the perfect place to unwind. A large kitchen with abundant cabinetry provides plenty of storage and room for cooking and entertaining. A full-length covered front porch, ideal for morning coffee or sunsets. The property also includes a double carport, a shed with workshop and lean-to, and a versatile she shed or man cave complete with window air-perfect for a craft room, hobby space, or private getaway. If you are looking for privacy, space, and country charm, this one checks all the boxes!!

19. 2026-04-17
    listed $219,900 Active 932-char remark

    Show marketing remark (932 chars)

    Secluded country living on 4 acres m/l-Peace, Privacy, & Scenic Views! Escape to your own private retreat with this unique 3-bedroom, 2 full bath earthen home nestled at the end of a quiet dead-end road. Surrounded by nature and offering breathtaking scenic views, this property is perfect for those seeking tranquility and space. The spacious primary suite features a stand-alone shower and a relaxing corner soaking tub, creating the perfect place to unwind. A large kitchen with abundant cabinetry provides plenty of storage and room for cooking and entertaining. A full-length covered front porch, ideal for morning coffee or sunsets. The property also includes a double carport, a shed with workshop and lean-to, and a versatile she shed or man cave complete with window air-perfect for a craft room, hobby space, or private getaway. If you are looking for privacy, space, and country charm, this one checks all the boxes!!

20. 2014-10-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $717 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,133 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,416/yr (+$118/mo · 197.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,112
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$717
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,049
• − Management: −$1,049
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$9,517
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,284
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Doniphan R-I
• NCES district ID: 2910920
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $31,818
• Composite: 26.91/100
• National rank: #7085
• State rank: #254 of 324 in MO

Livability — Fairdealing

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #18556

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,081

Population outlook (Ripley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,011 people
• By 2030: 12,515 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 11,512 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 10,427 · -19.9%
• By 2075: 7,833 · -39.8%
• By 2100: 5,692 · -56.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ripley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.0) · D 13.2% · R 86.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.0pp toward R · 2008: -30.1pp · 2024: -73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.0 2020: R+70.1 2016: R+66.9 2012: R+44.6 2008: R+30.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.25%
• Current HPI: 180.3875
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $219,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $717 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.