2420 Fords Prairie Ave · Centralia, WA 98531

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Other public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2016

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this immaculate, well-kept 2016 manufactured home in the desirable 55+ Nylandia community! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,290+ sq ft of comfortable living space with an open-concept layout, a spacious kitchen, and abundant natural light throughout. Stay comfortable year-round with the added convenience of a heat pump. Ideally located just minutes from the freeway, shopping, medical services, and more. Affordable space rent of $380 a month, includes water, sewer and garbage. No Home can go directly in front of this Home. This one is a must see!

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 2016
• Listed 25 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Bus line nearby; Double pane windows listed as energy efficient
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional; Land lease amount: $380
• HOA & community: Located in Nylandia park; 46 homes in the park; Senior community; Pets allowed — see remarks; Land lease (leased lot)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Uncovered parking
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Electric water heater; Water included; Sewer included; Power provided by City of Centralia
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Faces west; Very good condition; Model KARSTEN 48X27; Manufactured after 6/15/1976; Mobile home remains on site; Manufactured home park approved for sale
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Wood skirt; Slab foundation with tie-downs; Manufactured house structure
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump; Forced air cooling; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Water heater; Ceiling fan(s); Double pane windows; Drapes; Walk-in closet; Walk-in pantry
• Laundry & utility: Utility room; Water heater located in back bedroom closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $698 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 3.0% in Centralia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#81 in WA, #1,497 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, employment F.
• Centralia School District (town): math 39% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 291 in WA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fords Prairie Elementary (448 students, 83% FRL); Centralia High School (986 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 265 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lewis County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $113,275 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.02%
• DSCR: 2.16
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $25,819
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $79,701
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98531

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,815 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,020/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $698

Break-even live

Break-even rent $932

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1413 Nora Ln Centralia, WA	2.0	3.0	1315	$1,850	$1.41	43d	1	0.37mi
1413 Nora Ln Unit B Centralia, WA	2.0	2.5	1315	$1,850	$1.41	43d	1	0.38mi
2711 Niki Ln Bldg D8 Centralia, WA	3.0	2.5	1312	$2,100	$1.60	43d	1	0.55mi
2711 Niki LN Centralia, WA	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,100	$1.68	43d	1	0.59mi
1014 N Scheuber Rd Centralia, WA	2.0	1.0	890	$1,395	$1.57	13d	1	0.61mi
1405 Lewis St Centralia, WA	2.0	1.5	1150	$1,650	$1.43	13d	1	1.13mi
701 H St Apt R Centralia, WA	2.0	1.5	1180	$1,500	$1.27	43d	1	1.28mi
701 H St Apt E Centralia, WA	2.0	1.0	1137	$1,500	$1.32	43d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 566-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   statusdays on market $115,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   status $115,000 Pending 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $115,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,900 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 519-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,900 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    listed $119,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,020 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,127 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$107/yr (+$9/mo · 10.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,783
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,020
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,743
• − Management: −$1,743
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $6,916
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,660
• After-tax cash flow: $6,717/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centralia School District
• NCES district ID: 5301140
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,851
• Composite: 40.17/100
• National rank: #7832
• State rank: #187 of 291 in WA

Livability — Centralia

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #1497

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centralia, WA
• County: Lewis County · 27,337 people
• City population: 27,337
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• Population (ZIP): 27,337
• Household income: $63,406
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1000.0

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,749 people
• By 2030: 74,647 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 71,310 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 67,748 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 59,829 · -21.0%
• By 2100: 52,293 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.0) · D 32.0% · R 65.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -33.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.0 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+23.5 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -249.98%
• Current HPI: 378.6936
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.00%
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $119,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,020 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.