3145 Great Oak St · Wesley Chapel, FL 33543

$142,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1989 4,143 sqft lot Est $130k · 10% over $217/mo HOA · 14% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• ARV discount +3.2/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice 2 bedroom, 2 bath mobile with attached extra large storage/laundry room. Upgrades include double paned windows which flip in to clean and real hardwood floors in the dining room. Living room and dining room are located in the front of the home with a lot of windows allowing for natural light. Kitchen offers slate flooring, nice cabinets with a sit down counter space with storage underneath. Built in china in dining room offers great space for storage and displaying those special dishes! Master bedroom is exceptionally large with it's own bathroom featuring newer high rise commode and a walk in shower. Guest bath offers the newer high rise commode and bathtub/shower combination. Front of home offers a nice screen room with access through the French doors from living room. An open air sitting area also accents the front of the home. Plenty of parking for 4 cars if needed. All of this located in a deed restricted community offering two pools, security guard house at entrance plus a beautiful recreation building. Don't miss out on this one!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Double driveway
• Covered patio

Tags

• PREMIUM LOT
• DOUBLE DRIVEWAY
• COVERED PATIO
• VINYL SIDING
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Pets allowed (cats and dogs OK); Community features: golf carts allowed, association recreation owned
• Financial info: Total annual association fees: $2,604; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Association: Timber Lake Estate; Monthly association fee: $217; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard, gated entry, security; Association fee covers common area taxes, pool, grounds maintenance, sewer and water; Buyer approval required for association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; 1-car carport
• Security: Gated community access; Community security
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Faces east; Homesteaded
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Membrane roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built in approximately recent years (manufactured home)
• Exterior features: Hurricane shutters; Outside storage; Level, paved and private lot; Public maintained road access; Asphalt/paved road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Double pane windows; Window treatments; Decorative electric fireplace; Florida room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $142k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $142k).
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 649 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $982 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $142k implies a 205% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.97%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $129,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34121 Tree Lake Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0	988 (+3%)	9mo	$118,000	$119	85
34616 Morning Glory Gln	0.55mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	8mo	$53,000	$55	68
34313 Countryside Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+8%)	16mo	$139,900	$135	64
34537 Morning Glory Gln	0.50mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	19mo	$140,000	$146	60
34135 Brown Byu	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,081 (+13%)	10mo	$160,000	$148	60
3010 Whispering Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,104 (+15%)	15mo	$172,000	$156	50
34630 Petunia Pl	0.54mi	2/2.0	864 (-10%)	10mo	$115,000	$133	50
34704 Morning Glory Gln	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	888 (-8%)	6mo	$60,000	$68	49
34645 Lily Ln	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	10mo	$127,500	$121	48
34552 Rosebud Row	0.54mi	2/2.0	864 (-10%)	19mo	$118,000	$137	42
34701 Morning Glory Gln	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	16mo	$165,000	$156	41
34632 Sweetpea Ln	0.56mi	2/1.0	816 (-15%)	6mo	$70,000	$86	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-15,032
• Equity at exit: $21,173

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-14,728
• Equity at exit: $12,278

Cash invested: $39,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33543

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 649
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,606 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$745
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $603/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$217
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,356

Max offer price $142,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $278	-5% $238	+0% $198	+5% $158	+10% $118
Rent	-10% $71	-5% $134	+0% $198	+5% $261	+10% $325
Rate	-1.0pp $269	-0.5pp $234	base $198	+0.5pp $161	+1.0pp $124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,500
• Closing costs: $4,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3030 Beaver Creek Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	15d	1	0.18mi
3829 Kim Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	832	$1,395	$1.68	25d	1	0.77mi
33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$1,956	$1.85	0d	13	1.00mi
33976 Lusitano Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1251	$2,284	$1.82	13d	71	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $217 · $2,604/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $142,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $142,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $142,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $142,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $142,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $603 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,179 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$575/yr (+$48/mo · 95.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,954
• − Property taxes: −$603
• − Insurance: −$710
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,542
• − Management: −$1,542
• − HOA: −$2,604
• − Depreciation: −$4,131
• Taxable income: $190
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$46
• After-tax cash flow: $2,330/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,648
• Household income: $107,349
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.13%
• Current HPI: 263.2513
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1036.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $142,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $46,500 Public Records
• 2017-01-30 Sold (MLS) $46,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-07 Price Changed $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-26 Price Changed $54,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-15 Listed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-08 Listed $52,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-07 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-26 Listed $52,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-01-31 Listed $58,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-01-14 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-02-16 Listed $58,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $72,500 Public Records
• 2005-11-14 Sold (MLS) $72,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-29 Listed $72,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1989-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $603 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.