12594 Kennedy Flat Rd #28 · Martell, CA 95642

$59,950

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 504 sqft · Manufactured · 82 Days on market

Built 1971 $119/sqft · 84% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated 1971 Biltmore single-wide located in the desirable Gold Oaks Mobile Home Community. This 1 bedroom, 1-bath home features an open-concept layout with modern fixtures throughout, creating a bright and inviting living space. Thoughtfully refreshed, the home offers a clean, well-maintained interior that is truly move-in ready. The functional floor plan provides comfortable living with a seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas. Enjoy affordable space rent of $695 per month in a well-established community, making this an excellent opportunity for low-maintenance and budget-friendly living.

Key facts

• Modern fixtures
• Open-concept layout
• Parking

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN FIXTURES
• CLEAN WELL-MAINTAINED INTERIOR
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• AFFORDABLE SPACE RENT
• WELL-ESTABLISHED COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $257 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($850 rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,240 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, health & safety A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Amador County Unified (town): math 23% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #330 of 517 in CA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 66 units permitted in Amador County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Amador County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $56,353 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.39%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $32,500
• List price: $59,950
• Delta: 84.46%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $6,679
• Equity at exit: $8,939

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $26,962
• Equity at exit: $5,183

Cash invested: $16,786 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95642

• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $899/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $257

Break-even live

Break-even rent $524

Max offer price $59,950

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $299	-5% $278	+0% $257	+5% $236	+10% $216
Rent	-10% $190	-5% $224	+0% $257	+5% $291	+10% $324
Rate	-1.0pp $287	-0.5pp $272	base $257	+0.5pp $242	+1.0pp $226

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,988
• Closing costs: $1,798
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
135 Summit St Apt 2 Jackson, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$850	$1.70	45d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $59,950 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   price $59,950 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,950 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,950 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,950 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,950 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,950 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,950 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $64,950 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $64,950 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $64,950 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $64,950 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $64,950 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $64,950 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $64,950 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $64,950 Active 61 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,358
• − Property taxes: −$899
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$816
• − Management: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$1,744
• Taxable income: $2,267
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$544
• After-tax cash flow: $2,542/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amador County Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602450
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,428
• Composite: 26.67/100
• National rank: #7163
• State rank: #330 of 517 in CA

Livability — Martell

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #1240
• US rank: #26265

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Martell, CA
• Population (ZIP): 7,350

Population outlook (Amador County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,295 people
• By 2030: 34,147 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 31,618 · -10.4%
• By 2050: 29,913 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 27,308 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 23,465 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Amador

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.8) · D 34.7% · R 62.6% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -14.6pp · 2024: -27.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.8 2020: R+24.4 2016: R+25.2 2012: R+19.0 2008: R+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.51%
• Current HPI: 135.3393
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B