15300 Palm Dr #14 · Desert Hot Springs, CA 92240

$185,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 114 Days on market

Built 1988 3,920 sqft lot $148/sqft · 15% below area Est $217k · 15% under $329/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FEE LAND!!! you own the land!! Don't miss this excellent opportunity to live in the 55 plus, Resort Style community of Vista Montana. This home offers 1248 square feet of living area with 2 bedroom/2bathroom. This home boasts two primary bedrooms with ensuites. Access to bathroom from both bedrooms and are situated at opposite sides of the home. The kitchen has been upadated with new stone counter tops, new backsplash, farmers sink and new fixtures. There are newer dual pane windows throughout for added energy efficiency! There is a storage shed off of the extensive covered concrete carport! The Vista Montana community has excellent amenities which include, a large clubhouse with various rooms for different events like billards, card room, community event room, large kitchen for community and private events. The resort style pool and spas were recently resurfaced, the exercise room was recently refurbished. There is a gated dog park, BBQ area, a second smaller pool and wonderful walkways and common areas. This home has no 433A.

Key facts

• Farmers sink
• Updated kitchen
• New fixtures

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW STONE COUNTER TOPS
• NEW BACKSPLASH
• FARMERS SINK
• NEW FIXTURES
• NEWER DUAL PANE WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $327 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $168k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.0% in Desert Hot Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,149 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 515 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,351/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 2095% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $185k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,350 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.58%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $217,373
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -14.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15300 Palm Dr #22	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,272 (+2%)	5mo	$219,000	$172	90
15300 Palm Dr #30	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (0%)	3mo	$200,000	$160	88
15300 Palm Dr #45	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,254 (+0%)	6mo	$170,000	$136	86
15300 Palm Dr #42	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,178 (-6%)	2mo	$230,000	$195	82
15300 Palm Dr #138	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,323 (+6%)	3mo	$237,000	$179	82
15300 Palm Dr #161	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,333 (+7%)	1mo	$233,000	$175	81
15300 Palm Dr #255	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,345 (+8%)	2mo	$203,500	$151	78
15300 Palm Dr #119	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	4mo	$220,000	$164	77
15300 Palm Dr #209	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,335 (+7%)	3mo	$161,000	$121	77
14777 Palm Dr #15	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,260 (+1%)	3mo	$180,000	$143	75
15300 Palm Dr #35	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,430 (+15%)	5mo	$105,000	$73	67
14777 Palm Dr #8	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+12%)	6mo	$229,000	$163	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-7,388
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $27,696
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92240

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 515
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,351 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,852/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$329
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,937

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15300 Palm Dr Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,800	$1.92	44d	1	0.12mi
13987 El Cajon Dr Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1215	$2,600	$2.14	8d	1	0.73mi
13895 Luis Dr Desert Hot Springs, CA	2.0	1.0	814	$1,800	$2.21	44d	1	0.82mi
13950 West Dr Unit B Desert Hot Springs, CA	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,600	$1.59	2d	1	0.87mi
66590 Joseph Way Unit B Desert Hot Springs, CA	2.0	1.0	785	$2,295	$2.92	24d	1	0.89mi
15490 Avenue Rambla Unit NA Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,600	$2.39	24d	1	0.92mi
15490 Avenida Rambla Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,600	$2.39	44d	1	0.92mi
13405 Ocotillo Rd Desert Hot Springs, CA	2.0	1.0	864	$1,750	$2.03	2d	1	0.98mi
13715 El Rio Ln Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1318	$2,600	$1.97	8d	1	1.10mi
13322 El Rio Ln Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1215	$2,750	$2.26	44d	1	1.23mi
66434 Estrella Ave Desert Hot Springs, CA	2.0	2.0	850	$1,800	$2.12	44d	1	1.39mi
66309 Desert View Ave Unit 1 Desert Hot Springs, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,650	$2.06	44d	1	1.43mi
66299 Desert View Ave Desert Hot Springs, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,650	$2.06	44d	1	1.43mi
66444 Desert View Ave Unit B Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1294	$2,275	$1.76	44d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $329 · $3,948/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-02-24
    listed $185,000 Active 1043-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1043 chars)

    FEE LAND!!! you own the land!! Don't miss this excellent opportunity to live in the 55 plus, Resort Style community of Vista Montana. This home offers 1248 square feet of living area with 2 bedroom/2bathroom. This home boasts two primary bedrooms with ensuites. Access to bathroom from both bedrooms and are situated at opposite sides of the home. The kitchen has been upadated with new stone counter tops, new backsplash, farmers sink and new fixtures. There are newer dual pane windows throughout for added energy efficiency! There is a storage shed off of the extensive covered concrete carport! The Vista Montana community has excellent amenities which include, a large clubhouse with various rooms for different events like billards, card room, community event room, large kitchen for community and private events. The resort style pool and spas were recently resurfaced, the exercise room was recently refurbished. There is a gated dog park, BBQ area, a second smaller pool and wonderful walkways and common areas. This home has no 433A.

16. 2025-08-08
    listed Active
17. 2019-06-04
    soldstatus $91,000 Closed
18. 2019-06-04
    soldstatus $91,000 Sold
19. 2019-06-02
    status Pending
20. 2019-04-27
    historical Backup Offers Accepted
21. 2019-04-19
    price $93,900
22. 2019-03-03
    listed $98,100 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,852 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,852 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,852
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,257
• − Management: −$2,257
• − HOA: −$3,948
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $1,232
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$296
• After-tax cash flow: $3,628/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Springs Unified
• NCES district ID: 0629550
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,638
• Composite: 26.76/100
• National rank: #7131
• State rank: #328 of 517 in CA

Livability — Desert Hot Springs

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1149
• US rank: #25774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime D+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Desert Hot Springs, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 41,615
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,615
• Household income: $54,023
• Rent vs Own: 43.2% rent · 56.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2095.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 27% White 23% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 50% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.10%
• Current HPI: 418.4691
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.66%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+88.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Listed $185,000 TheMLS
• 2025-08-08 Listed — TheMLS
• 2019-06-04 Sold (MLS) $91,000 GPSMLS
• 2019-06-04 Sold (MLS) $91,000 GPSMLS
• 2019-06-02 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2019-04-27 Contingent — GPSMLS
• 2019-04-19 Price Changed $93,900 GPSMLS
• 2019-03-03 Listed $98,100 GPSMLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,852 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.