2505 Jackson Ave #194 · Escalon, CA 95320

$128,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 71 Days on market

Built 1973 $89/sqft · 29% above area Est $100k · 29% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move in condition, new kitchen sink, new Quartz Countertops, many nice features, go check this one out, you will fall in love with this home, with lots of remodeled features.

Key facts

• New kitchen
• Parking
• Built 1973

Tags

• REMODELED QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• NEW KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $413 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.0% in Escalon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#847 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• Escalon Unified (town): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #258 of 517 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $890 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,072 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.76%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $99,900
• List price: $128,800
• Delta: 28.93%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2505 Jackson Ave #145	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$25,000	$17	92
2505 Jackson Ave #149	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,539 (+7%)	8mo	$182,000	$118	80
2505 Jackson Ave #146	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	16mo	$150,000	$104	80
2505 - 9935 Jackson Ave #126	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-3%)	20mo	$150,000	$107	76
2505 Jackson Ave #106	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,303 (-10%)	7mo	$115,000	$88	73
2505 Jackson #193	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-13%)	1mo	$35,000	$28	72
2505 Jackson Ave #136	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (-14%)	3mo	$99,900	$81	69
2505 Jackson Ave #171	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,361 (-6%)	23mo	$125,000	$92	65
2505 Jackson Ave #175	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,272 (-12%)	15mo	$96,000	$75	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $5,483
• Equity at exit: $19,204

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $38,779
• Equity at exit: $11,136

Cash invested: $36,064 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95320

• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$675
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,932/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,127

Max offer price $128,800

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,200
• Closing costs: $3,864
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2174 Coley Ave Apt 32 Escalon, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,650	$1.74	13d	1	0.26mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $128,800 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $128,800 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $128,800 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $128,800 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $128,800 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 174-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $128,800 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $128,800 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $128,800 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $128,800 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $128,800 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $128,800 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $128,800 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $128,800 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $128,800 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $128,800 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $128,800 Active 52 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,215
• − Property taxes: −$1,932
• − Insurance: −$644
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$3,747
• Taxable income: $3,094
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$743
• After-tax cash flow: $4,218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escalon Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612840
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $58,800
• Composite: 31.95/100
• National rank: #5844
• State rank: #258 of 517 in CA

Livability — Escalon

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #847
• US rank: #23351

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Escalon, CA
• Population (ZIP): 13,511

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Russian 13% Iranian 5% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.16%
• Current HPI: 289.011
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B