2150 Chapel Dr · Fairborn, OH 45324

$140,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,590 sqft · Condo public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1983 $88/sqft · 25% below area Est $186k · 25% under $275/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

See this sought after and well-sized condo in a peaceful neighborhood offering comfort, flexibility, and opportunity. Inside, you'll find a huge living room ideal for everyday living, entertaining, dining, and hosting family or friends. A bonus room on the main level makes a perfect office, study, flex room, or extra sitting area. The upper level offers 3 large bedrooms, including a spacious primary suite with its own private bathroom, along with a second full bathroom for the additional bedrooms and guests. The finished basement bonus space provides even more room for a rec area, office, workout room, or hobby space. Additional features include an attached garage, parking in the rear, and street parking for guests. This home offers a great layout and strong square footage with the chance for the next owner to make a few updates and truly make it their own.

Key facts

• Parking in the rear
• Attached garage
• Huge living room

Tags

• HUGE LIVING ROOM
• BONUS ROOM
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• PARKING IN THE REAR
• STREET PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $17 ($209/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.8% in Fairborn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#374 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities D-.
• Fairborn City (suburban): math 36% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #520 of 656 in OH (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fairborn Primary School (1,253 students, 0% FRL); Baker Middle School (math 34% / reading 46%, grade F, #511 of 654 statewide, top 79%, 939 students, 0% FRL); Fairborn High School (math 33% / reading 65%, grade D, #422 of 781 statewide, top 54%, 1,048 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 15% FRL vs 51% district-wide (35 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 181 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 797 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (148 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $140k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $135,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.53%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $186,227
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -24.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-16,807
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $7,439
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45324

• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,607 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,214/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$275
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,585

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $97	-5% $57	+0% $17	+5% $-22	+10% $-62
Rent	-10% $-109	-5% $-46	+0% $17	+5% $81	+10% $144
Rate	-1.0pp $88	-0.5pp $53	base $17	+0.5pp $-19	+1.0pp $-56

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
427 Sycamore Dr Fairborn, OH	2.0	2.5	1397	$1,600	$1.15	20d	1	0.07mi
712 Hidden Valley Ct Fairborn, OH	2.0	2.5	1428	$1,325	$0.93	4d	1	0.38mi
454 Glenhaven Way Fairborn, OH	2.0	2.0	1311	$2,100	$1.60	5d	1	1.01mi
55 Truman Dr Fairborn, OH	3.0	1.0	1354	$1,545	$1.14	45d	1	1.04mi
2394 New Germany Trebein Rd Unit 305 Beavercreek, OH	2.0	2.0	1098	$1,750	$1.59	4d	1	1.07mi
2250 Warbler Ln Fairborn, OH	2.0	2.0	1233	$1,906	$1.55	4d	12	1.09mi
2335 Long Vista Ln Fairborn, OH	2.0	2.0	1366	$1,732	$1.27	4d	11	1.18mi
1678 Arden Bnd Fairborn, OH	3.0	2.5	1872	$2,400	$1.28	25d	1	1.27mi
1302 Hemmingway Dr Fairborn, OH	2.0	2.0	1098	$1,229	$1.12	16d	1	1.38mi
213 Vine St Unit 215 Fairborn, OH	2.0	1.0	1650	$950	$0.58	25d	1	1.40mi
542 Fairfield Ave Fairborn, OH	2.0	1.0	1625	$975	$0.60	45d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $275 · $3,300/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $140,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   status $140,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-05-06
   price $140,000 869-char remark

   Show marketing remark (875 chars)

   See this sought after and well-sized condo in a peaceful neighborhood offering comfort, flexibility, and opportunity. Inside, you’ll find a huge living room ideal for everyday living, entertaining, dining, and hosting family or friends. A bonus room on the main level makes a perfect office, study, flex room, or extra sitting area. The upper level offers 3 large bedrooms, including a spacious primary suite with its own private bathroom, along with a second full bathroom for the additional bedrooms and guests. The finished basement bonus space provides even more room for a rec area, office, workout room, or hobby space. Additional features include an attached garage, parking in the rear, and street parking for guests. This home offers a great layout and strong square footage with the chance for the next owner to make a few updates and truly make it their own.

4. 2026-05-06
   price $140,000 875-char remark

   Show marketing remark (875 chars)

   See this sought after and well-sized condo in a peaceful neighborhood offering comfort, flexibility, and opportunity. Inside, you’ll find a huge living room ideal for everyday living, entertaining, dining, and hosting family or friends. A bonus room on the main level makes a perfect office, study, flex room, or extra sitting area. The upper level offers 3 large bedrooms, including a spacious primary suite with its own private bathroom, along with a second full bathroom for the additional bedrooms and guests. The finished basement bonus space provides even more room for a rec area, office, workout room, or hobby space. Additional features include an attached garage, parking in the rear, and street parking for guests. This home offers a great layout and strong square footage with the chance for the next owner to make a few updates and truly make it their own.

5. 2026-04-08
   listed $171,000 Active 869-char remark

   Show marketing remark (869 chars)

   See this sought after and well-sized condo in a peaceful neighborhood offering comfort, flexibility, and opportunity. Inside, you'll find a huge living room ideal for everyday living, entertaining, dining, and hosting family or friends. A bonus room on the main level makes a perfect office, study, flex room, or extra sitting area. The upper level offers 3 large bedrooms, including a spacious primary suite with its own private bathroom, along with a second full bathroom for the additional bedrooms and guests. The finished basement bonus space provides even more room for a rec area, office, workout room, or hobby space. Additional features include an attached garage, parking in the rear, and street parking for guests. This home offers a great layout and strong square footage with the chance for the next owner to make a few updates and truly make it their own.

6. 2026-04-04
   listed $171,000 Active 875-char remark

   Show marketing remark (875 chars)

   See this sought after and well-sized condo in a peaceful neighborhood offering comfort, flexibility, and opportunity. Inside, you’ll find a huge living room ideal for everyday living, entertaining, dining, and hosting family or friends. A bonus room on the main level makes a perfect office, study, flex room, or extra sitting area. The upper level offers 3 large bedrooms, including a spacious primary suite with its own private bathroom, along with a second full bathroom for the additional bedrooms and guests. The finished basement bonus space provides even more room for a rec area, office, workout room, or hobby space. Additional features include an attached garage, parking in the rear, and street parking for guests. This home offers a great layout and strong square footage with the chance for the next owner to make a few updates and truly make it their own.

7. 2004-11-12
   soldstatus $72,914
8. 1991-07-17
   soldstatus $55,000
9. 1990-07-05
   soldstatus $62,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,214 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,214 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,214
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,543
• − Management: −$1,543
• − HOA: −$3,300
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$1,931
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$463
• After-tax cash flow: $673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairborn City
• NCES district ID: 3904396
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,091
• Composite: 36.05/100
• National rank: #4772
• State rank: #520 of 656 in OH

Livability — Fairborn

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #374
• US rank: #6101

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairborn, OH
• County: Greene County · 132,120 people
• City population: 41,194
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 41,194
• Household income: $64,979
• Rent vs Own: 47.2% rent · 52.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1472.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 170,301 people
• By 2030: 171,840 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 171,408 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 167,806 · -1.5%
• By 2075: 154,430 · -9.3%
• By 2100: 138,669 · -18.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 39.5% · R 59.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+19.5 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+21.8 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -157.48%
• Current HPI: 228.0801
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.75%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+124.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $140,000 CBRMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $140,000 Dayton MLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $171,000 CBRMLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $171,000 Dayton MLS
• 2004-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $72,914 Public Records
• 1991-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1990-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,214 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.