3308 W Paul Ave · Tampa, FL 33611

$410,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,716 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1946 0.29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Value is in the land! This house sits on a beautiful 90 x 141 lot that is over 12,000 square feet! It is the heart of a rapidly growing neighborhood with lots of new development and surrounded by many newer homes. Minutes from MacDill AFB, and easy access to Bayshore Boulevard, downtown Tampa, and Pinellas County.

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Pool
• Built 1946

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($837/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $317k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $317k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chiaramonte Elementary School (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 342 students, 66% FRL); Madison Middle School (math 43% / reading 46%, grade D, #320 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 563 students, 65% FRL); Robinson High School (math 43% / reading 63%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,354 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 423 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $410k implies a 888% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $317,090 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.73%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-69,399
• Equity at exit: $61,132

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-83,737
• Equity at exit: $35,449

Cash invested: $114,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33611

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 423
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,171 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,373/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$666
• Net cashflow: $70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,083

Max offer price $410,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $302	-5% $186	+0% $70	+5% $-46	+10% $-162
Rent	-10% $-181	-5% $-56	+0% $70	+5% $195	+10% $320
Rate	-1.0pp $276	-0.5pp $174	base $70	+0.5pp $-37	+1.0pp $-145

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,500
• Closing costs: $12,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3404 W Marlin Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,900	$2.08	7d	10	0.12mi
5000 S Himes Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	866	$2,155	$2.49	0d	7	0.16mi
3414 W Oakellar Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1078	$1,850	$1.72	15d	1	0.31mi
5008 S Macdill Ave #20 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1259	$3,100	$2.46	20d	1	0.33mi
3110 W Villa Rosa St Tampa, FL	4.0	2.5	2013	$4,700	$2.33	1d	1	0.35mi
4613 S Ferdinand Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1576	$5,500	$3.49	5d	1	0.42mi
4613 S Macdill Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1201	$4,800	$4.00	16d	1	0.50mi
2910 W Price Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1690	$4,000	$2.37	4d	1	0.50mi
2814 W Price Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1524	$3,000	$1.97	7d	1	0.59mi
2910 W Pearl Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1107	$2,450	$2.21	20d	1	0.60mi
3602 W Oklahoma Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1692	$2,695	$1.59	26d	1	0.60mi
3168 Bayshore Oaks Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1844	$2,800	$1.52	7d	1	0.61mi
5055 S Dale Mabry Hwy Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	797	$2,000	$2.51	5d	28	0.61mi
3712 W Wallace Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1273	$2,300	$1.81	12d	1	0.62mi
3223 W Wyoming Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	3.0	1948	$2,995	$1.54	16d	1	0.63mi
3711 W Leila Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1259	$2,300	$1.83	26d	1	0.64mi
3125 Santorini Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1674	$3,200	$1.91	5d	1	0.64mi
3905 W Paxton Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	3.0	1933	$3,695	$1.91	7d	1	0.64mi
4909 S Elberon St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	2200	$5,800	$2.64	26d	1	0.67mi
4811 Bayshore Blvd #103 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1420	$3,195	$2.25	3d	1	0.67mi
3814 W Tyson Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,700	$2.25	17d	1	0.70mi
5145 S Dale Mabry Hwy Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1057	$3,894	$3.68	0d	19	0.75mi
3715 W Wisconsin Ave #3 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1716	$2,650	$1.54	17d	1	0.77mi
4516 S Hale Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1527	$1,400	$0.92	14d	1	0.89mi
6017 S 2nd St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1784	$3,300	$1.85	3d	1	0.96mi
6220 Interbay Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	2037	$4,049	$1.99	26d	1	0.97mi
6211 S Macdill Ave #2 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	2148	$4,950	$2.30	13d	1	0.98mi
4109 W Wallace Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.5	1345	$2,500	$1.86	26d	1	0.99mi
6211 S MacDill Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	2148	$4,950	$2.30	5d	1	0.99mi
4207 S Dale Mabry Hwy Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$2,775	$2.48	1d	8	0.99mi
4104 W Leila Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1381	$2,750	$1.99	26d	1	1.00mi
4104 W Leila Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1381	$2,650	$1.92	20d	1	1.00mi
4141 Bayshore Blvd Tampa, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1492	$4,400	$2.95	26d	2	1.01mi
4201 La Dega Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	1.5	1164	$2,500	$2.15	16d	1	1.04mi
2916 W Bay Court Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1914	$5,900	$3.08	7d	1	1.12mi
5110 S Manhattan Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$3,478	$3.49	1d	23	1.13mi
2801 Sanders Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1222	$2,250	$1.84	7d	1	1.15mi
4325 Aegean Dr Unit 250B Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1150	$2,100	$1.83	26d	1	1.17mi
4206 W Wisconsin Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1692	$3,600	$2.13	26d	1	1.21mi
6615 Interbay Blvd Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1420	$4,200	$2.96	26d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending 358-char remark

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   Under contract-accepting backup offers. Value is in the land! This house sits on a beautiful 90 x 141 lot that is over 12,000 square feet! It is the heart of a rapidly growing neighborhood with lots of new development and surrounded by many newer homes. Minutes from MacDill AFB, and easy access to Bayshore Boulevard, downtown Tampa, and Pinellas County.

2. 2026-04-20
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   Under contract-accepting backup offers. Value is in the land! This house sits on a beautiful 90 x 141 lot that is over 12,000 square feet! It is the heart of a rapidly growing neighborhood with lots of new development and surrounded by many newer homes. Minutes from MacDill AFB, and easy access to Bayshore Boulevard, downtown Tampa, and Pinellas County.

3. 2026-04-14
   listed $410,000 Active 358-char remark

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   Under contract-accepting backup offers. Value is in the land! This house sits on a beautiful 90 x 141 lot that is over 12,000 square feet! It is the heart of a rapidly growing neighborhood with lots of new development and surrounded by many newer homes. Minutes from MacDill AFB, and easy access to Bayshore Boulevard, downtown Tampa, and Pinellas County.

4. 2026-04-14
   listed $410,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   Under contract-accepting backup offers. Value is in the land! This house sits on a beautiful 90 x 141 lot that is over 12,000 square feet! It is the heart of a rapidly growing neighborhood with lots of new development and surrounded by many newer homes. Minutes from MacDill AFB, and easy access to Bayshore Boulevard, downtown Tampa, and Pinellas County.

5. 1986-03-01
   soldstatus $41,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,373 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,403 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,030/yr (+$169/mo · 147.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,051
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,966
• − Property taxes: −$1,373
• − Insurance: −$2,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,044
• − Management: −$3,044
• − Depreciation: −$11,927
• Taxable loss: −$6,354
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,525
• After-tax cash flow: $2,361/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tampa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2135

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tampa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 523,346
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 36,810
• Household income: $90,910
• Rent vs Own: 46.3% rent · 53.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1761.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 12% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -328.23%
• Current HPI: 374.7996
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.69%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+888.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $410,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $410,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1986-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $41,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,373 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.