83 W Main St · St. Johnsville, NY 13452

$79,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1910 7,155 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUD deal -- Fair Condition

Key facts

• 7,155 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1910

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $281 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Oppenheim-Ephratah-St. Johnsville CSD (rural): math 30% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #522 of 590 in NY (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 210 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (168 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $80k implies a 429% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.5% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.05%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $213,560
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 John St	0.07mi	4/1.5	2,170 (-4%)	9mo	$53,500	$25	81
119 W Main St	0.20mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,322 (+3%)	11mo	$100,100	$43	67
7694 State Highway 5	0.28mi	4/1.0	1,912 (-15%)	11mo	$125,025	$65	53
23 Failing Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,944 (-14%)	13mo	$189,000	$97	49
28 S Division St	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (-11%)	22mo	$190,000	$95	48
965 River Rd	0.62mi	4/2.0	2,058 (-8%)	14mo	$230,000	$112	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.75×
• Total profit: $61,589
• Equity at exit: $71,980

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.49×
• Total profit: $167,648
• Equity at exit: $155,228

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13452

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,376 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$298 /mo · $3,579/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,020

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2023-03-29
   status Pending
2. 2021-12-14
   status Pending
3. 2018-08-08
   status Pend (Under Cntr)
4. 2018-07-23
   price $79,900
5. 2018-07-11
   price $84,900
6. 2018-07-11
   status Price Change
7. 2018-07-10
   historical
8. 2018-06-21
   status Back On Market
9. 2018-05-04
   status Pend (Under Cntr)
10. 2018-04-09
    listed $84,999 New
11. 2012-01-01
    historical
12. 2010-10-19
    soldstatus $15,100 26-char remark

    Show marketing remark (26 chars)

    HUD deal -- Fair Condition

13. 2010-06-14
    listed $99,000
14. 2009-06-19
    historical 26-char remark

    Show marketing remark (26 chars)

    HUD deal -- Fair Condition

15. 2009-06-05
    listed $15,000 26-char remark

    Show marketing remark (26 chars)

    HUD deal -- Fair Condition

16. 2004-03-10
    soldstatus $58,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,579 · $298/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,579 · $298/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,513
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$3,579
• − Insurance: −$1,066
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,321
• − Management: −$1,321
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $2,426
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$582
• After-tax cash flow: $2,790/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oppenheim-Ephratah-St. Johnsville CSD
• NCES district ID: 3601107
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,730
• Composite: 34.25/100
• National rank: #5253
• State rank: #522 of 590 in NY

Livability — St. Johnsville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Johnsville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,850

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,683 people
• By 2030: 47,785 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 45,492 · -6.6%
• By 2050: 43,161 · -11.3%
• By 2075: 38,134 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 32,337 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.7) · D 35.6% · R 64.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: -8.1pp · 2024: -28.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.7 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+26.5 2012: R+4.4 2008: R+8.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.23%
• Current HPI: 342.6782
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+36.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2023-03-29 Pending — Global MLS
• 2021-12-14 Pending — Global MLS
• 2018-08-08 Pending — Global MLS
• 2018-07-23 Price Changed $79,900 Global MLS
• 2018-07-11 Price Changed $84,900 Global MLS
• 2018-07-11 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2018-07-10 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2018-06-21 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2018-05-04 Pending — Global MLS
• 2018-04-09 Listed $84,999 Global MLS
• 2012-01-01 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2010-10-19 Sold (MLS) $15,100 Global MLS
• 2010-06-14 Listed $99,000 Global MLS
• 2009-06-19 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2009-06-05 Listed $15,000 Global MLS
• 2004-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $58,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,579 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.