2537 16th St · Calera, AL 35040

$219,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,235 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1990 0.78 ac lot $177/sqft · 11% above area Est $223k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WATER VIEW! Don’t miss this rare opportunity to own a one-level full brick home tucked at the end of a quiet street with a beautiful water view just across the way. Enjoy peaceful mornings and relaxing evenings with beautiful scenery & water view right outside your door. The seller shares that neighbors are friendly, adding to the charm of this welcoming setting. This home sits on an almost one-acre lot, this home offers privacy, space, and low-maintenance living. Inside features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths with ceramic tile throughout—clean, durable, and easy to maintain. Fresh paint, new kitchen countertops and backsplash, and updated lighting make it truly move-in ready. Conveniently located in Calera with easy interstate access. Homes like this don’t last—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 0.78 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1990

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $572 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $219k).
• Recommended offer: $206k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.5% in Calera — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#325 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 374 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,860 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.20%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,825
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: -1.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
113 Ridgecrest Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+2%)	6mo	$208,000	$164	70
1873 19th St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,226 (-1%)	2mo	$260,000	$212	66
201 Bonnieville Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,348 (+9%)	2mo	$233,000	$173	66
430 Enclave Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+4%)	7mo	$217,000	$168	66
11 Oneal Dr	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,224 (-1%)	8mo	$74,900	$61	65
106 Cove Lndg	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,119 (-9%)	2mo	$179,270	$160	64
153 Ridgecrest Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,346 (+9%)	8mo	$227,500	$169	59
320 Creek Run Cir	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,125 (-9%)	3mo	$185,000	$164	56
350 Shiloh Creek Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,395 (+13%)	2mo	$264,000	$189	53
00373 Shiloh Creek Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,391 (+13%)	3mo	$260,000	$187	52
00365 Shiloh Creek Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,391 (+13%)	7mo	$272,809	$196	48
2080 Carson St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+14%)	8mo	$182,500	$130	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,469
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $55,403
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35040

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 374
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,377 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $791/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,653

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
148 Enclave Ave Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1340	$4,150	$3.10	1d	1	0.31mi
100 Enclave Ave Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,585	$1.27	19d	1	0.36mi
2150 20th St #2 Calera, AL	2.0	1.0	880	$695	$0.79	3d	1	0.55mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $219,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 55 DOM
16. 2026-05-02
    price $229,000 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    WATER VIEW! Don’t miss this rare opportunity to own a one-level full brick home tucked at the end of a quiet street with a beautiful water view just across the way. Enjoy peaceful mornings and relaxing evenings with beautiful scenery & water view right outside your door. The seller shares that neighbors are friendly, adding to the charm of this welcoming setting. This home sits on an almost one-acre lot, this home offers privacy, space, and low-maintenance living. Inside features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths with ceramic tile throughout—clean, durable, and easy to maintain. Fresh paint, new kitchen countertops and backsplash, and updated lighting make it truly move-in ready. Conveniently located in Calera with easy interstate access. Homes like this don’t last—schedule your showing today!

17. 2026-04-06
    listed $235,000 Active 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    WATER VIEW! Don’t miss this rare opportunity to own a one-level full brick home tucked at the end of a quiet street with a beautiful water view just across the way. Enjoy peaceful mornings and relaxing evenings with beautiful scenery & water view right outside your door. The seller shares that neighbors are friendly, adding to the charm of this welcoming setting. This home sits on an almost one-acre lot, this home offers privacy, space, and low-maintenance living. Inside features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths with ceramic tile throughout—clean, durable, and easy to maintain. Fresh paint, new kitchen countertops and backsplash, and updated lighting make it truly move-in ready. Conveniently located in Calera with easy interstate access. Homes like this don’t last—schedule your showing today!

18. 2024-02-23
    soldstatus $225,000 Sold 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    THIS ONE LEVEL FULL BRICK HOME WITH A WATER VIEW IS WAITING ON YOU! This home sits on a beautiful level, almost one acre lot with a lot of privacy, in the town of Calera, conveniently close to the interstate. This home features three bedroom and two full baths. This home has been freshly painted throughout with new kitchen countertops and backsplash and new lighting fixtures!! This home is definitely move in ready and a rare find! Call today to schedule your private viewing.

19. 2024-02-23
    soldstatus $225,000

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    THIS ONE LEVEL FULL BRICK HOME WITH A WATER VIEW IS WAITING ON YOU! This home sits on a beautiful level, almost one acre lot with a lot of privacy, in the town of Calera, conveniently close to the interstate. This home features three bedroom and two full baths. This home has been freshly painted throughout with new kitchen countertops and backsplash and new lighting fixtures!! This home is definitely move in ready and a rare find! Call today to schedule your private viewing.

20. 2024-01-12
    historical Contingent 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    THIS ONE LEVEL FULL BRICK HOME WITH A WATER VIEW IS WAITING ON YOU! This home sits on a beautiful level, almost one acre lot with a lot of privacy, in the town of Calera, conveniently close to the interstate. This home features three bedroom and two full baths. This home has been freshly painted throughout with new kitchen countertops and backsplash and new lighting fixtures!! This home is definitely move in ready and a rare find! Call today to schedule your private viewing.

21. 2024-01-12
    status Pending 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    THIS ONE LEVEL FULL BRICK HOME WITH A WATER VIEW IS WAITING ON YOU! This home sits on a beautiful level, almost one acre lot with a lot of privacy, in the town of Calera, conveniently close to the interstate. This home features three bedroom and two full baths. This home has been freshly painted throughout with new kitchen countertops and backsplash and new lighting fixtures!! This home is definitely move in ready and a rare find! Call today to schedule your private viewing.

22. 2024-01-02
    listed $227,000 Active 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    THIS ONE LEVEL FULL BRICK HOME WITH A WATER VIEW IS WAITING ON YOU! This home sits on a beautiful level, almost one acre lot with a lot of privacy, in the town of Calera, conveniently close to the interstate. This home features three bedroom and two full baths. This home has been freshly painted throughout with new kitchen countertops and backsplash and new lighting fixtures!! This home is definitely move in ready and a rare find! Call today to schedule your private viewing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $791 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $898 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$107/yr (+$9/mo · 13.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,521
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$791
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,282
• − Management: −$2,282
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable income: $3,434
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$824
• After-tax cash flow: $6,041/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 0103030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,672
• Composite: 39.29/100
• National rank: #3995
• State rank: #16 of 129 in AL

Livability — Calera

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #19917

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calera, AL
• County: Shelby County · 188,970 people
• City population: 19,304
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 19,304
• Household income: $84,554
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 388.0

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.58%
• Current HPI: 220.2843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+0.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $229,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $235,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2024-02-23 Sold (MLS) $225,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-01-12 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-01-12 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-01-02 Listed $227,000 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $791 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.