686 Sherburne Ave · St. Paul, MN 55104

$169,900

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,704 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1910 3,963 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Investment property or owner/occupy opportunity! Close access to University Ave, Light Rail & downtown.

Key facts

• Prime location
• 3,963 sq ft lot
• Built 1910

Tags

• PRIME LOCATION
• STRONG RENTAL POTENTIAL
• FLEXIBLE LIVING ARRANGEMENTS
• FULL CITY CODE COMPLIANCE
• INCOME PRODUCING POSSIBILITIES
• VALUABLE RENTAL PROPERTY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Owner-occupied: No; Two total units; Main level finished area listed and unit breakdowns indicate one unit ~700 and one ~991

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking only
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential income property (duplex up and down); More than 2 stories
• Construction: Frame construction; Asphalt roof; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch; Vinyl exterior; Chain-link and partial fencing; City street frontage; Public transit within ~6 blocks

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms total (configured as 2-bed unit and 3-bed unit)
• Bathrooms: Each unit has 1 full and 1 half bathroom (one 2-bdrm unit and one 3-bdrm unit)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2.0-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive. Per door: $750/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,385/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 2116% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $164,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.84%
• DSCR: 2.68
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $66,362
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.66×
• Total profit: $174,129
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55104

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,385 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,548/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$711
• Net cashflow: $1,500

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,486

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 51%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2.0	1.5	$3,384
Total (2 units)			$3,385

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $169,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,900 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $179,900 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    listed $179,900 Active 690-char remark
15. 2023-07-06
    soldstatus $265,000
16. 2023-05-15
    soldstatus $265,000 Sold 107-char remark

    Show marketing remark (107 chars)

    Investment property or owner/occupy opportunity! Close access to University Ave, Light Rail & downtown.

17. 2023-04-13
    status Pending 107-char remark

    Show marketing remark (107 chars)

    Investment property or owner/occupy opportunity! Close access to University Ave, Light Rail & downtown.

18. 2023-01-30
    listed $270,000 Active 107-char remark

    Show marketing remark (107 chars)

    Investment property or owner/occupy opportunity! Close access to University Ave, Light Rail & downtown.

19. 2015-04-07
    soldstatus $807,900
20. 2015-03-19
    historical
21. 2014-12-10
    status Active
22. 2014-12-01
    historical
23. 2014-12-01
    listed $140,000 Active
24. 2007-06-05
    historical
25. 2007-05-29
    soldstatus $92,000
26. 2007-04-05
    listed $101,430
27. 2005-04-28
    soldstatus $265,000
28. 1996-08-20
    soldstatus $36,000
29. 1993-03-31
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,548
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,250
• − Management: −$3,250
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $16,263
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,903
• After-tax cash flow: $14,097/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 45,762
• Household income: $75,712
• Rent vs Own: 46.9% rent · 53.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2116.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -532.26%
• Current HPI: 245.6146
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+324.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $169,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Listed $179,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records
• 2023-05-15 Sold (MLS) $265,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-13 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-30 Listed $270,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $807,900 Public Records
• 2015-03-19 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-10 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-01 Listed $140,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-05 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-29 Sold (MLS) $92,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-05 Listed $101,430 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records
• 1996-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 1993-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,234 · +179.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.