152 Edgemont Cir · Lake of the Woods, VA 22508

$329,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,262 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1973 0.34 ac lot $145/sqft · 34% below area Est $463k · 29% under $217/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to Lake of the Woods! This lovely round home sits on a wooded corner lot, steps away from Edgemont Beach. The main level of the home features a light-filled and open living room, with a table space. The kitchen is right off the living room, with stainless appliances and a bar. Enjoy the outdoors on the large deck, just off the kitchen and living room. A full hall bathroom is on this level, along with the primary bedroom, with a walk-in closet and en suite bathroom, and a second large bedroom. A spiral staircase leads to the mostly finished lower-level, which includes the rec room (with a wood burning fireplace), 3rd bedroom, full bathroom, laundry room (with utility sink & second fridge), a storage/utility room, and walk-out exterior doors. Many updates have been to the home, and some of note include the roof & roof structure (2015), exterior vinyl siding (2025), bedroom carpet (2026), heat pump condenser motor (2020), living room windows and sliding door, other flooring, and more! The wooded lot has two driveway entrances, ample parking, a picnic area, and a shed below the deck. The gated Lake of the Woods community offers an endless list of amenities, including two lakes, trails, parks, pools, beaches, sporting courts, a golf course, clubhouse, restaurant, equestrian center, fire & rescue department, and more! Don’t miss your opportunity to be the next owner of this one-of-kind property!

Key facts

• Large deck
• En suite bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• WOODED CORNER LOT
• LARGE DECK
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN SUITE BATHROOM
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• UTILITY SINK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $329k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $271 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $314k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $309k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.3% in Lake of the Woods — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#341 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Orange County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #71 of 131 in VA (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 412 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $329k implies a 339% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $309,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.53%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $462,631
• List price: $329,000
• Delta: -28.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
103 Aspen Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0	2,204 (-3%)	1mo	$447,000	$203	72
2102 Lakeview Pkwy	0.35mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,206 (-2%)	1mo	$485,000	$220	72
112 Butler Cir	0.39mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,310 (+2%)	1mo	$489,900	$212	71
216 Battlefield Rd	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,362 (+4%)	1mo	$469,000	$199	69
111 Butler Cir	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,206 (-2%)	3mo	$474,000	$215	67
409 Confederate Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,206 (-2%)	9mo	$489,900	$222	67
705 Monticello Cir	0.07mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,952 (-14%)	0mo	$425,000	$218	67
222 Battlefield Rd	0.29mi	3/2.5	2,044 (-10%)	4mo	$458,500	$224	65
405 Harrison Cir	0.47mi	3/2.0	2,094 (-7%)	5mo	$412,000	$197	58
115 Harris Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,936 (-14%)	1mo	$415,000	$214	55
323 Stratford Cir	0.50mi	3/2.0	2,068 (-9%)	6mo	$464,900	$225	53
104 Manassas Pt	0.60mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,517 (+11%)	4mo	$805,000	$320	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-36,024
• Equity at exit: $49,055

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-9,091
• Equity at exit: $28,446

Cash invested: $92,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22508

• Home prices YoY: -5.0%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,136 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,524/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$217
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$659
• Net cashflow: $271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,793

Max offer price $329,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,250
• Closing costs: $9,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
526 Monticello Cir Locust Grove, VA	4.0	2.5	2280	$3,300	$1.45	2d	1	0.22mi
711 Yorktown Blvd Locust Grove, VA	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,600	$1.54	10d	1	0.97mi
306 Happy Creek Rd Locust Grove, VA	3.0	2.0	1630	$2,695	$1.65	44d	1	1.10mi
405 Cornwallis Ave Locust Grove, VA	3.0	2.0	1728	$2,800	$1.62	1d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $217 · $2,604/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $329,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $329,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $329,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    price $329,000 1444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1444 chars)

    Escape to Lake of the Woods! This lovely round home sits on a wooded corner lot, steps away from Edgemont Beach. The main level of the home features a light-filled and open living room, with a table space. The kitchen is right off the living room, with stainless appliances and a bar. Enjoy the outdoors on the large deck, just off the kitchen and living room. A full hall bathroom is on this level, along with the primary bedroom, with a walk-in closet and en suite bathroom, and a second large bedroom. A spiral staircase leads to the mostly finished lower-level, which includes the rec room (with a wood burning fireplace), 3rd bedroom, full bathroom, laundry room (with utility sink & second fridge), a storage/utility room, and walk-out exterior doors. Many updates have been to the home, and some of note include the roof & roof structure (2015), exterior vinyl siding (2025), bedroom carpet (2026), heat pump condenser motor (2020), living room windows and sliding door, other flooring, and more! The wooded lot has two driveway entrances, ample parking, a picnic area, and a shed below the deck. The gated Lake of the Woods community offers an endless list of amenities, including two lakes, trails, parks, pools, beaches, sporting courts, a golf course, clubhouse, restaurant, equestrian center, fire & rescue department, and more! Don’t miss your opportunity to be the next owner of this one-of-kind property!

15. 2026-04-17
    listed $349,000 Active 1444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1444 chars)

    Escape to Lake of the Woods! This lovely round home sits on a wooded corner lot, steps away from Edgemont Beach. The main level of the home features a light-filled and open living room, with a table space. The kitchen is right off the living room, with stainless appliances and a bar. Enjoy the outdoors on the large deck, just off the kitchen and living room. A full hall bathroom is on this level, along with the primary bedroom, with a walk-in closet and en suite bathroom, and a second large bedroom. A spiral staircase leads to the mostly finished lower-level, which includes the rec room (with a wood burning fireplace), 3rd bedroom, full bathroom, laundry room (with utility sink & second fridge), a storage/utility room, and walk-out exterior doors. Many updates have been to the home, and some of note include the roof & roof structure (2015), exterior vinyl siding (2025), bedroom carpet (2026), heat pump condenser motor (2020), living room windows and sliding door, other flooring, and more! The wooded lot has two driveway entrances, ample parking, a picnic area, and a shed below the deck. The gated Lake of the Woods community offers an endless list of amenities, including two lakes, trails, parks, pools, beaches, sporting courts, a golf course, clubhouse, restaurant, equestrian center, fire & rescue department, and more! Don’t miss your opportunity to be the next owner of this one-of-kind property!

16. 2015-10-14
    historical 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Handyman-Makeover-Needs Work- Perfect for a fix up loan; Located 5 lots from a beach & on a private wooded corner; Circle Drive; House in the Round; 3BR, 3Baths, Fam Rm with raised platform & brick fireplace; 500 sqft wrap decking; Report for roof/ ceiling work in MRIS documents; Heat pump 2010; washer/dryer/frig in basement work; New water line; looking to as-is sell

17. 2015-10-09
    soldstatus $75,000 Sold 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Handyman-Makeover-Needs Work- Perfect for a fix up loan; Located 5 lots from a beach & on a private wooded corner; Circle Drive; House in the Round; 3BR, 3Baths, Fam Rm with raised platform & brick fireplace; 500 sqft wrap decking; Report for roof/ ceiling work in MRIS documents; Heat pump 2010; washer/dryer/frig in basement work; New water line; looking to as-is sell

18. 2015-10-09
    soldstatus $75,000

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Handyman-Makeover-Needs Work- Perfect for a fix up loan; Located 5 lots from a beach & on a private wooded corner; Circle Drive; House in the Round; 3BR, 3Baths, Fam Rm with raised platform & brick fireplace; 500 sqft wrap decking; Report for roof/ ceiling work in MRIS documents; Heat pump 2010; washer/dryer/frig in basement work; New water line; looking to as-is sell

19. 2015-09-10
    status Contract 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Handyman-Makeover-Needs Work- Perfect for a fix up loan; Located 5 lots from a beach & on a private wooded corner; Circle Drive; House in the Round; 3BR, 3Baths, Fam Rm with raised platform & brick fireplace; 500 sqft wrap decking; Report for roof/ ceiling work in MRIS documents; Heat pump 2010; washer/dryer/frig in basement work; New water line; looking to as-is sell

20. 2015-08-21
    historical Contingent (Kick Out) 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Handyman-Makeover-Needs Work- Perfect for a fix up loan; Located 5 lots from a beach & on a private wooded corner; Circle Drive; House in the Round; 3BR, 3Baths, Fam Rm with raised platform & brick fireplace; 500 sqft wrap decking; Report for roof/ ceiling work in MRIS documents; Heat pump 2010; washer/dryer/frig in basement work; New water line; looking to as-is sell

21. 2015-08-20
    historical
22. 2015-06-23
    status Active 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Handyman-Makeover-Needs Work- Perfect for a fix up loan; Located 5 lots from a beach & on a private wooded corner; Circle Drive; House in the Round; 3BR, 3Baths, Fam Rm with raised platform & brick fireplace; 500 sqft wrap decking; Report for roof/ ceiling work in MRIS documents; Heat pump 2010; washer/dryer/frig in basement work; New water line; looking to as-is sell

23. 2015-06-15
    status Contract 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Handyman-Makeover-Needs Work- Perfect for a fix up loan; Located 5 lots from a beach & on a private wooded corner; Circle Drive; House in the Round; 3BR, 3Baths, Fam Rm with raised platform & brick fireplace; 500 sqft wrap decking; Report for roof/ ceiling work in MRIS documents; Heat pump 2010; washer/dryer/frig in basement work; New water line; looking to as-is sell

24. 2015-05-20
    listed $97,700 Active 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Handyman-Makeover-Needs Work- Perfect for a fix up loan; Located 5 lots from a beach & on a private wooded corner; Circle Drive; House in the Round; 3BR, 3Baths, Fam Rm with raised platform & brick fireplace; 500 sqft wrap decking; Report for roof/ ceiling work in MRIS documents; Heat pump 2010; washer/dryer/frig in basement work; New water line; looking to as-is sell

25. 2015-05-20
    listed $97,700

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Handyman-Makeover-Needs Work- Perfect for a fix up loan; Located 5 lots from a beach & on a private wooded corner; Circle Drive; House in the Round; 3BR, 3Baths, Fam Rm with raised platform & brick fireplace; 500 sqft wrap decking; Report for roof/ ceiling work in MRIS documents; Heat pump 2010; washer/dryer/frig in basement work; New water line; looking to as-is sell

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,524 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,698 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,174/yr (+$98/mo · 77.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,637
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,429
• − Property taxes: −$1,524
• − Insurance: −$1,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,011
• − Management: −$3,011
• − HOA: −$2,604
• − Depreciation: −$9,571
• Taxable loss: −$2,158
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$518
• After-tax cash flow: $3,774/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102820
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $61,086
• Composite: 48.34/100
• National rank: #2147
• State rank: #71 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake of the Woods

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #341
• US rank: #13456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake of the Woods, VA
• County: Orange County · 21,992 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 15,557
• Household income: $111,357
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 102.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,758 people
• By 2030: 40,411 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 43,477 · +12.2%
• By 2050: 45,856 · +18.3%
• By 2075: 51,067 · +31.8%
• By 2100: 51,387 · +32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.2% · R 61.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -8.8pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+21.4 2016: R+26.6 2012: R+14.5 2008: R+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.88%
• Current HPI: 401.2932
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+236.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $329,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $349,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-10-14 Delisted — MRIS
• 2015-10-09 Sold (MLS) $75,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-10-09 Sold (MLS) $75,000 MRIS
• 2015-09-10 Pending — MRIS
• 2015-08-21 Contingent — MRIS
• 2015-08-20 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-06-23 Relisted — MRIS
• 2015-06-15 Pending — MRIS
• 2015-05-20 Listed $97,700 MRIS
• 2015-05-20 Listed $97,700 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,524 · +28.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.