551 Summit Trl #143 · Granby, CO 80446

$215,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,866 sqft · Manufactured · 157 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2019 Good condition $115/sqft · 19% below area Est $265k · 19% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.6

Listing remarks

Welcome to Smith Creek Crossing in Granby, where comfort, space, and mountain-town convenience come together. This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an inviting open living area with great natural flow, high ceilings, and a larger kitchen with plenty of room for cooking, gathering, and everyday living. The functional floor plan provides room to spread out while still keeping the main living areas connected and comfortable. Outside, enjoy a front patio, front lawn, extra-long driveway with ample parking, and a storage shed for tools, gear, bikes, and seasonal equipment.

Key facts

• Front patio
• Extra-long driveway
• Larger kitchen

Tags

• OPEN LIVING AREA
• LARGER KITCHEN
• FRONT PATIO
• EXTRA-LONG DRIVEWAY
• STORAGE SHED
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $310 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 1.5% in Granby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#85 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, health & safety F.
• East Grand School District No. 2 (rural): math 36% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #17 of 86 in CO (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Granby Elementary School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #300 of 966 statewide, top 32%, 331 students, 38% FRL); East Grand Middle School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #84 of 270 statewide, top 32%, 290 students, 22% FRL); Middle Park High School (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C-, #78 of 381 statewide, top 22%, 406 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 591 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 294 units permitted in Grand County in 2024 (82 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grand County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.67%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,212
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -18.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
551 Summit Trail Trl #22	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,586 (-15%)	16mo	$255,000	$161	58
551 Summit Trail Trl #10	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-14%)	4mo	$223,000	$139	56
551 Summit Trl #142	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (-14%)	20mo	$255,000	$159	54
19 LA Plata Dr	1.10mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,846 (-1%)	8mo	$800,000	$433	46
495 New Church Cir	0.81mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,848 (-1%)	18mo	$780,000	$422	44
39 Topaz Ave	1.16mi	4/2.0	2,000 (+7%)	17mo	$555,000	$278	39
375 Avenue A	1.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,780 (-5%)	17mo	$670,000	$376	38
375 Avenue A	1.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,780 (-5%)	17mo	$670,000	$376	38
71 Diamond Ct	1.11mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,848 (-1%)	21mo	$425,000	$230	37
255 Vista Ave	1.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,481 (-21%)	0mo	$515,000	$348	35
55 Diamond	1.19mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,004 (+7%)	18mo	$610,000	$304	32
295 Avenue C	1.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,647 (-12%)	22mo	$500,000	$304	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-14,991
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $12,818
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 13 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 78.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $235,000 ($145/sqft)
• Median days on market: 208 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -2.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 80446

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 591
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,431 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,225/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,039

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $458	-5% $384	+0% $310	+5% $236	+10% $161
Rent	-10% $118	-5% $214	+0% $310	+5% $406	+10% $502
Rate	-1.0pp $418	-0.5pp $365	base $310	+0.5pp $254	+1.0pp $197

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
252 W Garnet Ave Granby, CO	4.0	3.0	2016	$2,800	$1.39	29d	1	1.03mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual taxes listed (amount available)
• HOA & community: Land is leased with a monthly land lease of $815

Exterior

• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric on property
• Home design: Residential mobile home

Interior

• Kitchen: RangeRefrigeratorDishwasherDisposal
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingHas heating
• Interior features: DisposalDishwasher
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry roomWasherDryer

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $215,000 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $215,000 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $215,000 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $215,000 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $215,000 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $215,000 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $215,000 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $215,000 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $215,000 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $215,000 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $215,000 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $215,000 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $215,000 Active 143 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $215,000 Active 142 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $215,000 Active 141 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $215,000 Active 140 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $215,000 Active 139 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $215,000 Active 138 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $215,000 Active 137 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $215,000 Active 136 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $215,000 Active 135 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $215,000 Active 134 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $215,000 Active 133 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $215,000 Active 132 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $215,000 Active 131 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $215,000 Active 130 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $215,000 Active 129 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $215,000 Active 128 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $215,000 Active 127 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $215,000 Active 126 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 125 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $215,000 Active 124 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $215,000 Active 123 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $215,000 Active 122 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 121 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 120 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 119 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $215,000 Active 118 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $215,000 Active 117 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $215,000 Active 116 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $215,000 Active 115 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $215,000 Active 113 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $215,000 Active 112 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $215,000 Active 111 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $215,000 Active 110 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $215,000 Active 109 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $215,000 Active 108 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $215,000 Active 107 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $215,000 Active 106 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥81°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,178
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,225
• − Insurance: −$2,578
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,334
• − Management: −$2,334
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $409
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$98
• After-tax cash flow: $3,620/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,330–$27,990 screening

This well-maintained single-family home in Smith Creek Crossing offers a good condition with modern updates and a good location.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Granby Elementary School F CO #300/966 Nat'l #17,502/41,679 Middle East Grand Middle School F CO #84/270 Nat'l #6,151/14,009 High Middle Park High School C- CO #78/381 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Grand School District No. 2
• NCES district ID: 0804320
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $64,903
• Composite: 41.64/100
• National rank: #3424
• State rank: #17 of 86 in CO

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Granby

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #85
• US rank: #7574

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Granby, CO
• County: Grand County · 14,498 people
• City population: 4,017
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 4,017
• Household income: $74,973
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Grand County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,498 people
• By 2030: 14,215 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 13,225 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 12,186 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 10,196 · -29.7%
• By 2100: 8,326 · -42.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 19% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Grand

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.8% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.3pp no change · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: R+1.8 2016: R+13.5 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.78%
• Current HPI: 347.8691
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual taxes listed (amount available)
• HOA & community: Land is leased with a monthly land lease of $815

Exterior

• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric on property
• Home design: Residential mobile home

Interior

• Kitchen: RangeRefrigeratorDishwasherDisposal
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingHas heating
• Interior features: DisposalDishwasher
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry roomWasherDryer

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $235,000 GCAR
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $249,500 GCAR
• 2025-10-24 Listed $263,500 GCAR