551 Summit Trl #143 · Granby, CO 80446

$235,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,866 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 2019 Good condition Est $300k · 22% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Smith Creek Crossing in Granby, where comfort, space, and mountain-town convenience come together. This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an inviting open living area with great natural flow, high ceilings, and a larger kitchen with plenty of room for cooking, gathering, and everyday living. The functional floor plan provides room to spread out while still keeping the main living areas connected and comfortable. Outside, enjoy a front patio, front lawn, extra-long driveway with ample parking, and a storage shed for tools, gear, bikes, and seasonal equipment. From the back of the home, you'll appreciate peaceful views toward open space with no unit directly behind, adding a nice sense

Key facts

• Front patio
• Extra-long driveway
• Larger kitchen

Tags

• OPEN LIVING AREA
• LARGER KITCHEN
• FRONT PATIO
• EXTRA-LONG DRIVEWAY
• STORAGE SHED
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual taxes listed (amount available)
• HOA & community: Land is leased with a monthly land lease of $815

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric on property
• Home design: Residential mobile home

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Disposal; Dishwasher
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $802 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $235k).
• Recommended offer: $231k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 1.4% in Granby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#85 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, health & safety F.
• East Grand School District No. 2 (rural): math 36% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #17 of 86 in CO (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 429 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in Grand County in 2024 (82 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,229/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 105% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grand County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,475 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.91%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $300,426
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
551 Summit Trail Trl #22	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,586 (-15%)	12mo	$255,000	$161	62
551 Summit Trl #142	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (-14%)	16mo	$255,000	$159	58
551 Summit Trail Trl #34	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (-14%)	21mo	$285,000	$178	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $13,117
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $77,696
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80446

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 429
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,229 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,525/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$678
• Net cashflow: $802

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,214

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $964	-5% $883	+0% $802	+5% $721	+10% $639
Rent	-10% $547	-5% $674	+0% $802	+5% $929	+10% $1,057
Rate	-1.0pp $920	-0.5pp $862	base $802	+0.5pp $741	+1.0pp $679

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $235,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $235,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $235,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $235,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥81°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,751
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,525
• − Insurance: −$2,678
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,100
• − Management: −$3,100
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable income: $6,348
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,524
• After-tax cash flow: $8,099/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in Smith Creek Crossing offers a good condition with modern updates and a good location.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Grand School District No. 2
• NCES district ID: 0804320
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $64,903
• Composite: 41.64/100
• National rank: #3424
• State rank: #17 of 86 in CO

Livability — Granby

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #85
• US rank: #7574

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Granby, CO
• County: Grand County · 5,874 people
• City population: 4,017
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 4,017
• Household income: $74,973
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 105.0

Population outlook (Grand County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,498 people
• By 2030: 14,215 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 13,225 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 12,186 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 10,196 · -29.7%
• By 2100: 8,326 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 19% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Portuguese 6% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grand

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.8% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.3pp no change · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: R+1.8 2016: R+13.5 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.78%
• Current HPI: 347.8691
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $235,000 GCAR
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $249,500 GCAR
• 2025-10-24 Listed $263,500 GCAR