822 N Lexington Ave · Springfield, MO 65802

$79,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1930 Fair condition 7,405 sqft lot $100/sqft · 34% below area Est $121k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Property being sold as-is.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 53 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $283 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($974 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.5% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Springfield R-XII (urban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #174 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: York Elem. (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #537 of 1,115 statewide, top 53%, 204 students, 89% FRL); Pipkin Middle (math 20% / reading 29%, grade F, #324 of 391 statewide, top 83%, 340 students, 82% FRL); Central High (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #92 of 521 statewide, top 20%, 1,464 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 46% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 628 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 14% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.17%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $121,223
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -34.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1621 W Chestnut St	0.14mi	2/1.0	774 (-3%)	1mo	$69,000	$89	87
1007 N Park Ave	0.39mi	2/1.0	768 (-4%)	1mo	$129,900	$169	74
1622 W Chestnut St	0.16mi	2/1.0	696 (-13%)	0mo	$124,900	$179	71
2106 W Webster St	0.38mi	1/1.0 (-1)	768 (-4%)	1mo	$589,900	$768	70
819 N Brown Ave	0.68mi	2/1.0	820 (+2%)	1mo	$145,000	$177	63
733 N Warren Ave	0.45mi	2/1.0	720 (-10%)	1mo	$115,000	$160	61
2150 W Chestnut St	0.35mi	1/1.0 (-1)	909 (+14%)	1mo	$589,900	$649	55
1411 W Lynn St	0.57mi	2/1.0	715 (-11%)	1mo	$589,900	$825	55
1846 W Division St	0.61mi	1/1.0 (-1)	732 (-8%)	1mo	$55,000	$75	51
2025 W Walnut St	0.70mi	2/2.0	738 (-8%)	1mo	$589,900	$799	50
1311 N Forest Ave	0.65mi	2/1.0	696 (-13%)	1mo	$89,000	$128	47
1808 W Walnut St	0.71mi	2/1.0	912 (+14%)	1mo	$589,900	$647	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $6,854
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $36,789
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 39 active · 37 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.3 mo (23%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $115,000 ($135/sqft)
• Median days on market: 65 d
• This list price: 10% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 65802

• Home prices YoY: -31.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 628
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $974 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $411/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $616

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $328	-5% $305	+0% $283	+5% $260	+10% $238
Rent	-10% $206	-5% $244	+0% $283	+5% $321	+10% $360
Rate	-1.0pp $323	-0.5pp $303	base $283	+0.5pp $262	+1.0pp $241

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
916 N Kansas Expy Springfield, MO	1.0	1.0	573	$595	$1.04	93d	1	0.21mi
522 N Park Ave Springfield, MO	1.0	1.0	608	$950	$1.56	93d	1	0.40mi
1406 W Calhoun St Unit B Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	885	$865	$0.98	72d	1	0.47mi
1740 W Olive St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	736	$1,195	$1.62	62d	1	0.51mi
740 N West Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	72d	1	0.57mi
741 N West Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	912	$950	$1.04	93d	1	0.61mi
1126 W Hamilton St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	648	$895	$1.38	72d	1	0.64mi
1911 W Elm St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	580	$875	$1.51	93d	1	0.73mi
813 W Poplar St Unit 813 Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	560	$795	$1.42	62d	1	0.81mi
1200 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$995	$0.99	62d	3	0.84mi
2712 W Nichols St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	619	$795	$1.28	93d	1	0.87mi
815 N Grant Ave Unit A Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	801	$625	$0.78	93d	1	0.89mi
647 W Central St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	882	$1,050	$1.19	72d	1	0.94mi
2711 W Olive St Springfield, MO	1.0	1.0	621	$750	$1.21	72d	1	1.01mi
733 W College St Springfield, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$750	$1.07	62d	1	1.01mi
627 S Fort Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	880	$895	$1.02	72d	1	1.01mi
513 S Broadway Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$855	$1.07	93d	1	1.02mi
2541 W Lincoln St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1034	$975	$0.94	93d	1	1.03mi
922 N Glenn Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	780	$1,100	$1.41	93d	1	1.08mi
865 S Douglas Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	850	$895	$1.05	62d	4	1.08mi
520 S Scenic Ave Unit 101-A Springfield, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$650	$1.18	93d	1	1.13mi
930 W Harrison St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1046	$1,150	$1.10	62d	1	1.16mi
235 N Market Ave Springfield, MO	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1350	$1,267	$0.94	72d	5	1.19mi
235 N Market Ave Springfield, MO	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1350	$1,267	$0.94	62d	4	1.19mi
603 W Division St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	816	$995	$1.22	62d	1	1.19mi
535 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1096	$1,495	$1.36	93d	1	1.20mi
2204 W Madison St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,095	$1.14	62d	1	1.22mi
211 S Market Ave Springfield, MO	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1442	$1,425	$0.99	72d	5	1.22mi
211 S Market Ave Springfield, MO	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1442	$1,425	$0.99	70d	5	1.22mi
1036 W Monroe Ter Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	812	$795	$0.98	72d	1	1.23mi
2854 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	945	$995	$1.05	70d	1	1.28mi
305 S Campbell Ave Unit 208 Springfield, MO	1.0	1.0	649	$975	$1.50	62d	1	1.28mi
138 Park Central Sq Springfield, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1083	$2,489	$2.30	62d	8	1.32mi
2117 N Lexington Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,195	$1.15	93d	1	1.34mi
3016 W Hovey St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1059	$1,350	$1.27	93d	1	1.34mi
430 W Pershing St Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	765	$1,195	$1.56	62d	1	1.35mi
2126 N Lexington Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	990	$895	$0.90	62d	1	1.35mi
209 W McDaniel St Unit 209-207 Springfield, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	93d	1	1.37mi
2120 N Johnston Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	880	$925	$1.05	93d	1	1.42mi
2115 N Grace Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	650	$850	$1.31	93d	1	1.43mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Single-family residenceResidential property
• Construction: Approximately 800 above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Lot of approximately 0.17 acresSubdivision: Greene-Not in ListDirections: From Chestnut Expy, turn north on N Lexington Ave, go about 0.15 miles; 822 N Lexington will be on the right

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating (other type)No cooling
• Interior features: One full bathroom

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-07-06
   days on market $79,900 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-07-05
   days on market $79,900 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-07-04
   days on market $79,900 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-07-03
   days on market $79,900 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-07-02
   days on market $79,900 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-07-01
   days on market $79,900 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-30
   days on market $79,900 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-29
   days on market $79,900 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-28
   days on market $79,900 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-28
    days on market $79,900 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-27
    days on market $79,900 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-25
    days on market $79,900 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-23
    days on market $79,900 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-22
    days on market $79,900 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-06-18
    days on market $79,900 Active 35 DOM
16. 2026-06-17
    days on market $79,900 Active 34 DOM
17. 2026-06-16
    days on market $79,900 Active 33 DOM
18. 2026-06-15
    days on market $79,900 Active 32 DOM
19. 2026-06-14
    days on market $79,900 Active 30 DOM
20. 2026-06-10
    days on market $79,900 Active 27 DOM
21. 2026-06-09
    days on market $79,900 Active 26 DOM
22. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 25 DOM
23. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 24 DOM
24. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 20 DOM
25. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 19 DOM
26. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 18 DOM
27. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 17 DOM
28. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 16 DOM
29. 2026-05-14
    listed $70,000 Active 26-char remark
30. 2019-05-24
    soldstatus $350,000
31. 2016-02-29
    listed $73,867

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $411 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $775 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$364/yr (+$30/mo · 88.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,686
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$411
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$935
• − Management: −$935
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $2,206
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$529
• After-tax cash flow: $2,864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $20,000–$36,000 screening

The property is in fair condition with some exterior and landscaping improvements needed. A moderate renovation could significantly increase its value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good

Repairs flagged

• Minor Landscaping — Overgrown grass needs trimming
• Moderate Exterior paint — Light discoloration on siding

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and exterior painting — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Interior painting — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary York Elem. F MO #537/1,115 Nat'l #19,648/41,679 Middle Pipkin Middle F MO #324/391 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Central High D+ MO #92/521 Nat'l #5,016/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield R-XII
• NCES district ID: 2928860
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,886
• Composite: 32.45/100
• National rank: #5717
• State rank: #174 of 324 in MO

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #4121

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, MO
• County: Greene County · 319,054 people
• City population: 223,044
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 46,739
• Household income: $55,019
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.72%
• Current HPI: 212.9826
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.82%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Single-family residenceResidential property
• Construction: Approximately 800 above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Lot of approximately 0.17 acresSubdivision: Greene-Not in ListDirections: From Chestnut Expy, turn north on N Lexington Ave, go about 0.15 miles; 822 N Lexington will be on the right

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating (other type)No cooling
• Interior features: One full bathroom

Price history

+8.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $79,900 SOMO
• 2026-05-14 Listed $70,000 SOMO
• 2019-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 Public Records
• 2016-02-29 Listed $73,867 SOMO

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $411 · +15.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.