1433 15th Ave · Oakland, CA 94606

$499,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,038 sqft · MultiFamily public records

Built 1904 3,001 sqft lot $245/sqft · 18% below area Est $606k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Ready for the perfect East-Oakland rental property? Or perhaps you occupy one unit while making some money off the other? Options are endless. Located in the San Antonio neighborhood, this 1904 Victorian-style duplex offers charm and character with plenty of room for creative freedom. With a huge backyard this is a great place for enjoying Bay Area sunshine, or entertaining. Both units have updated flooring and some updated electrical. The upper unit has a newer, lovely deck and to top it all off, a new roof! Installed in 2025. Close to shopping, dining, freeway access and Oakland International Airport.

Key facts

• 3,001 sq ft lot
• Built 1904

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $248 ($3k/yr) — positive. Per door: $124/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $498k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $498k (0.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.4% in Oakland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#224 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Oakland Unified (urban): math 27% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,007 of 1,400 in CA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 127 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,982/mo this rent would consume 82% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) (locally 3757% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $151k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1904 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $498,200 (0.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1904 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.13%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $605,651
• List price: $499,000
• Delta: -17.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2232 11th Ave	0.56mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,189 (+7%)	6mo	$680,000	$311	47
1812 15th Ave	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,336 (+15%)	22mo	$799,000	$342	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-70,482
• Equity at exit: $74,403

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-62,780
• Equity at exit: $43,144

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Oakland: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+62

Rent Adjustment Program + Just Cause.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94606

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 16.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,982 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$863 /mo · $10,355/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,046
• Net cashflow: $248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,668

Max offer price $499,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $531	-5% $389	+0% $248	+5% $107	+10% $-34
Rent	-10% $-145	-5% $51	+0% $248	+5% $445	+10% $642
Rate	-1.0pp $499	-0.5pp $375	base $248	+0.5pp $119	+1.0pp $-13

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$4,982
Total (2 units)			$4,982

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
324 International Blvd Unit 324 Oakland, CA	3.0	1.5	1400	$3,500	$2.50	25d	1	0.73mi
324 International Blvd Unit 324 Oakland, CA	3.0	1.5	1400	$3,500	$2.50	0d	1	0.73mi
1200 Lakeshore Ave Oakland, CA	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1332	$10,245	$7.69	0d	13	0.94mi
2422 E 24th St Unit 1 Oakland, CA	5.0	1.0	2364	$3,500	$1.48	44d	1	1.00mi
1518 Clement Ave Alameda, CA	3.0	1.0–3.0	1108	$5,973	$5.39	0d	19	1.19mi
527 Merritt Ave Oakland, CA	3.0	2.0	1530	$4,800	$3.14	2d	1	1.21mi
2900 Sheffield Ave Oakland, CA	4.0	2.0	1692	$7,000	$4.14	4d	1	1.34mi
238 13th St Oakland, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$4,387	$4.22	0d	10	1.41mi
621 Calmar Ave Oakland, CA	3.0	2.0	2024	$5,529	$2.73	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-07
   remarks 614-char remark
2. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on marketlisting id $499,000 Pending
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $499,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $499,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $499,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $499,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-04-10
   listed $520,000 Active 609-char remark
8. 2025-06-06
   historical
9. 2025-04-06
   price
10. 2025-02-03
    price
11. 2025-01-20
    listed Active
12. 2024-05-31
    historical
13. 2024-05-01
    price
14. 2024-03-25
    price
15. 2024-02-26
    listed Active
16. 2024-02-13
    price
17. 2024-01-10
    listed Active
18. 2023-11-29
    historical
19. 2023-09-22
    price
20. 2023-07-17
    listed New
21. 2019-09-20
    soldstatus $545,000 Sold
22. 2019-09-13
    soldstatus $545,000
23. 2019-08-08
    status Pending
24. 2019-07-31
    price $595,000
25. 2019-07-25
    listed $650,000 New
26. 2003-12-24
    soldstatus $226,000
27. 1999-11-19
    soldstatus $167,000
28. 1983-11-04
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,355 · $863/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,355 · $863/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥84°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,784
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$10,355
• − Insurance: −$2,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,783
• − Management: −$4,783
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable loss: −$5,099
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,224
• After-tax cash flow: $4,202/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oakland Unified
• NCES district ID: 0628050
• Math proficiency: 27% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,194
• Composite: 29.52/100
• National rank: #11769
• State rank: #1007 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Oakland

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #7245

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakland, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 385,993
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 39,966
• Household income: $72,470
• Rent vs Own: 79.8% rent · 20.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3757.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.77)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 32% Hispanic / Latino 25% White 20% Black 16% Two or more races 10% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 19% Chinese 14% Vietnamese 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -798.52%
• Current HPI: 334.5111
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.86%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1457.1% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-10 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-06-06 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-04-06 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-02-03 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-01-20 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-05-31 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-05-01 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-03-25 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-02-26 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-02-13 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-01-10 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-11-29 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-09-22 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-07-17 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2019-09-20 Sold (MLS) $545,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2019-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $545,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-08 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2019-07-31 Price Changed $595,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2019-07-25 Listed $650,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2003-12-24 Sold (Public Records) $226,000 Public Records
• 1999-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $167,000 Public Records
• 1983-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,355 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.