8703 Running Fox Cir · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40291

$250,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,108 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1975 6,756 sqft lot Est $242k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Office Exclusive - No Showings

Key facts

• 6,756 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1975

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; 2 stories; Built in 1975; Shingle roof; Vinyl siding and brick exterior
• Construction: Poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Lot approximately 0.16 acres; Located in the Fox Ridge subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished basement; Basement present
• Laundry & utility: No first-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($409/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Fern Creek Elementary (math 11% / reading 27%, grade F, #599 of 676 statewide, top 89%, 712 students, 66% FRL); Newburg Middle (math 14% / reading 36%, grade F, #184 of 217 statewide, top 87%, 941 students, 64% FRL); Fern Creek High (math 20% / reading 27%, grade F, #199 of 254 statewide, top 78%, 1,688 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.0%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,919 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.58%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $241,544
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8703 Running Fox Cir	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,108 (0%)	1mo	$237,000	$214	99
8412 Silver Fox Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,139 (+3%)	6mo	$260,000	$228	82
8504 Old Boundary Rd	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,158 (+4%)	13mo	$200,000	$173	60
8418 Glaser Ln	0.40mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,068 (-4%)	7mo	$234,000	$219	60
8503 Silver Fox Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,231 (+11%)	22mo	$267,000	$217	55
8801 Beulah Church Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,107 (-0%)	22mo	$222,000	$201	50
9039 Fern Creek Rd	0.49mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,200 (+8%)	14mo	$260,000	$217	45
8304 Mckenna Way	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,250 (+13%)	9mo	$280,000	$224	44
8705 Wharton Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,218 (+10%)	22mo	$265,000	$218	42
6209 Dart Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0 (-1)	962 (-13%)	2mo	$250,000	$260	36
8905 Ferndale Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,274 (+15%)	15mo	$245,000	$192	30
6302 Mercury Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0 (-1)	957 (-14%)	15mo	$215,000	$225	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-27,627
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $27,534
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40291

• Rents YoY: 15.0%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,039 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,940/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,996

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $176	-5% $105	+0% $34	+5% $-37	+10% $-107
Rent	-10% $-127	-5% $-46	+0% $34	+5% $115	+10% $195
Rate	-1.0pp $160	-0.5pp $98	base $34	+0.5pp $-31	+1.0pp $-97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8808 Fernview Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1107	$1,655	$1.50	22d	1	0.30mi
7610 Chelsea Gardens Cir Louisville, KY	2.0–3.0	2.0	1220	$2,011	$1.65	4d	21	1.10mi
7400 Snow Bend Ave Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1074	$1,846	$1.72	3d	11	1.36mi
9728 Alexandra Woods Ct Louisville, KY	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1165	$1,884	$1.62	3d	13	1.40mi
5312 Poindexter Dr Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	824	$1,314	$1.59	4d	7	1.45mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $250,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,940 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,150 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$210/yr (+$17/mo · 10.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,470
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,940
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,958
• − Management: −$1,958
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$3,912
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$939
• After-tax cash flow: $1,348/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 41,222
• Household income: $81,267
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 790.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 19% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, India, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -279.15%
• Current HPI: 218.0784
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.96%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $250,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,940 · +27.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.