1493 Ferrier Rd · Winlock, WA 98596

$159,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Other public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1973 4.65 ac lot $190/sqft · 57% below area ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Just under five aces located on quiet country rd just outside of town. Property is level to sloping with tons of potential. Property is in the process of being cleaned up. The majority of the cars will be removed along with the majority of scrap/junk. Property has an old single wide on it that is of no value. This is an estate and the seller has limited knowledge of the water source, septic, etc. Please do not enter home without prior approval.

Key facts

• 4.65 acre lot
• Built 1973
• Listed 82 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $174 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.5% in Winlock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#247 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, employment D.
• Winlock School District (rural): math 25% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #248 of 291 in WA (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 265 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lewis County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $150,306 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.66%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $368,551
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -56.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-14,824
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,436
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98596

• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,619 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,398/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-11
   price $159,900
3. 2026-02-21
   listed $168,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,398
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,554
• − Management: −$1,554
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$491
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$118
• After-tax cash flow: $2,202/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winlock School District
• NCES district ID: 5309930
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,036
• Composite: 32.95/100
• National rank: #10689
• State rank: #248 of 291 in WA

Livability — Winlock

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #247
• US rank: #7893

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,276

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,749 people
• By 2030: 74,647 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 71,310 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 67,748 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 59,829 · -21.0%
• By 2100: 52,293 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.0) · D 32.0% · R 65.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -33.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.0 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+23.5 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -168.46%
• Current HPI: 240.7257
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $159,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-21 Listed $168,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $100 · -2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.