409 S 4th St · Colwyn, PA 19023

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1929 $65/sqft · 45% below area Est $181k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1929
• Listed 47 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $342 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#119 in PA, #943 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D.
• William Penn SD (suburban): math 11% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #491 of 539 in PA (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.1%/yr); 98 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 299 units permitted in Delaware County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $100k implies a 170% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price; built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.67%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,566
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -44.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 N Front St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,439 (-6%)	15mo	$107,000	$74	57
733 Eggleston	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,352 (-12%)	1mo	$271,000	$200	47
311 N 9th St	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,478 (-4%)	12mo	$250,000	$169	40
7226 Grays Ave	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,650 (+7%)	24mo	$230,000	$139	34
142 Bartlett Ave	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,762 (+15%)	11mo	$165,000	$94	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $14,065
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $78,774
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19023

• Rents YoY: 13.1%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,573 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$334 /mo · $4,008/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $342

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,139

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $399	-5% $371	+0% $342	+5% $314	+10% $286
Rent	-10% $218	-5% $280	+0% $342	+5% $404	+10% $467
Rate	-1.0pp $393	-0.5pp $368	base $342	+0.5pp $316	+1.0pp $290

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
412 S 2nd St Darby, PA	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,100	$0.92	6d	1	0.08mi
417 S 2nd St Darby, PA	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,020	$0.86	6d	1	0.11mi
304 S 3rd St Darby, PA	3.0	1.0	1602	$1,695	$1.06	44d	1	0.12mi
304 S 3rd St Darby, PA	3.0	1.0	1602	$1,595	$1.00	21d	1	0.12mi
700 Pine St Unit 2F Darby, PA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	19d	1	0.27mi
94 S 6th St Darby, PA	3.0	1.5	1666	$2,000	$1.20	25d	1	0.35mi
69 S 7th St Darby, PA	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,700	$1.18	44d	1	0.43mi
106 N 6th St Darby, PA	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	44d	1	0.51mi
209 Hamilton Ave Darby, PA	4.0	1.0	1400	$1,595	$1.14	15d	1	0.51mi
924 Maple Ter Darby, PA	3.0	1.5	1190	$2,000	$1.68	6d	1	0.73mi
935 Maple Ter Darby, PA	3.0	1.0	1266	$1,585	$1.25	6d	1	0.75mi
935 Maple Ter Darby, PA	3.0	1.0	1266	$1,585	$1.25	11d	1	0.75mi
2 Winthrop Rd Darby, PA	3.0	1.5	1224	$1,900	$1.55	22d	1	0.99mi
526 Macdade Blvd Darby, PA	2.0	1.0	2148	$1,250	$0.58	17d	1	1.08mi
526 Macdade Blvd Darby, PA	2.0	1.0	2148	$1,250	$0.58	44d	1	1.08mi
118 Felton Ave Darby, PA	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,750	$1.52	22d	1	1.10mi
37 Concord Rd Darby, PA	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,795	$1.60	44d	1	1.19mi
820 Greenhill Rd Sharon Hill, PA	4.0	2.0	1184	$2,600	$2.20	6d	1	1.36mi
1519 Roosevelt Dr Sharon Hill, PA	3.0	1.5	1260	$2,295	$1.82	44d	1	1.47mi
66 Folcroft Ave Folcroft, PA	3.0	1.0	1224	$1,895	$1.55	4d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-10
   pricestatus $100,000 Pending 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $120,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   price $125,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $130,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $140,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   pricedays on market $140,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $150,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $160,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    price $160,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $167,500 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-05-18
    price $180,000
13. 2026-05-13
    price $190,000
14. 2026-05-09
    price $195,000
15. 2026-05-07
    price $200,000
16. 2026-05-05
    price $210,000
17. 2026-05-01
    price $212,500
18. 2026-04-28
    price $215,000
19. 2026-04-24
    listed $220,000 Active
20. 2026-04-20
    price $220,000
21. 2026-04-18
    price $250,000
22. 2026-04-18
    historical $200,000
23. 1985-12-17
    soldstatus $37,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,008 · $334/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,008 · $334/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,873
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$4,008
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,510
• − Management: −$1,510
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $2,834
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$680
• After-tax cash flow: $3,428/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Penn SD
• NCES district ID: 4226390
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,543
• Composite: 17.29/100
• National rank: #9086
• State rank: #491 of 539 in PA

Livability — Colwyn

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #943

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing B+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Colwyn, PA
• County: Delaware County · 399,863 people
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 22,247
• Household income: $46,463
• Rent vs Own: 47.4% rent · 52.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1468.0

Population outlook (Delaware County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 577,490 people
• By 2030: 581,243 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 584,700 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 586,581 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 598,706 · +3.7%
• By 2100: 590,823 · +2.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 76% White 15% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 5% Hispanic 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Delaware

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.7) · D 61.4% · R 37.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.3pp toward D · 2008: 21.4pp · 2024: 23.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.7 2020: D+26.7 2016: D+22.0 2012: D+21.8 2008: D+21.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.50%
• Current HPI: 277.7034
• Rent YoY: ▲ 13.10%
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+386.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $180,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $190,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $195,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $210,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $212,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $215,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $220,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $220,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-18 Coming Soon $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1985-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,008 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.