309 Redbud Ln · Wilmer, TX 75172

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,073 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1972 9,540 sqft lot Est $219k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Come see this cozy renovated home nestled in a tight nit community at the end of the cul de sac. With a large backyard, spacious garage and a centralized updated kitchen and living area, this house is a must see. Completely redone foundation, new plumbing and draining system along with a new roof and water heater, this house checks all boxes for updates. Come see today

Key facts

• Renovated home
• New plumbing
• Large backyard

Tags

• RENOVATED HOME
• LARGE BACKYARD
• CENTRALIZED UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW ROOF
• NEW WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $55 ($659/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.8% in Wilmer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,054 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Dallas ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #559 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.18%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $218,892
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
309 Redbud Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,098 (+2%)	1mo	$199,000	$181	95
400 Redbud Ln	0.04mi	3/1.5	1,073 (0%)	22mo	$220,000	$205	78
216 Wilmer Heights Dr	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-3%)	4mo	$175,000	$168	75
320 Pecan St	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,198 (+12%)	1mo	$269,000	$225	71
1260 Magnolia Trl	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,027 (-4%)	10mo	$210,000	$204	59
415 Johnson St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	957 (-11%)	4mo	$99,500	$104	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $35,366
• Equity at exit: $97,740

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $111,896
• Equity at exit: $157,394

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75172

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,020 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$415 /mo · $4,977/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,951

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
314 Rolling Meadow Dr Wilmer, TX	4.0	2.0	1496	$2,399	$1.60	43d	1	0.32mi
1223 Maple St Wilmer, TX	3.0	2.0	1381	$1,935	$1.40	43d	1	0.54mi
5900 S Interstate Highway 45 Wilmer, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	988	$1,794	$1.81	1d	8	0.64mi
409 Dewitt St Wilmer, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,000	$1.52	1d	1	0.68mi
6000 S Interstate Highway 45 Wilmer, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	988	$1,781	$1.80	1d	13	0.82mi
301 Mars Rd Wilmer, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	965	$1,864	$1.93	1d	24	1.19mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-04-30
   soldstatus
2. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-16
   historical Active Option Contract
4. 2026-03-12
   price $199,000
5. 2026-03-05
   price $204,000
6. 2026-02-26
   price $209,000
7. 2026-02-19
   price $214,000
8. 2026-02-13
   price $219,000
9. 2026-02-06
   price $224,000
10. 2026-01-10
    listed $229,000 Active
11. 2025-12-02
    historical
12. 2025-10-14
    price $219,000
13. 2025-08-21
    listed $229,000 Active
14. 2025-08-15
    historical
15. 2025-06-13
    price $227,000
16. 2025-03-31
    price $228,000
17. 2025-03-22
    price $228,500
18. 2025-01-30
    price $229,500
19. 2025-01-23
    price $237,500
20. 2025-01-16
    price $238,500
21. 2025-01-10
    price $239,500
22. 2025-01-01
    listed $249,000 Active
23. 2022-03-31
    soldstatus
24. 2021-09-30
    listed Active Option Contract
25. 2021-09-29
    historical
26. 2021-09-29
    listed $110,000
27. 2018-05-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,977 · $415/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,977 · $415/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,245
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$4,977
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,940
• − Management: −$1,940
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,542
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$610
• After-tax cash flow: $1,269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,881
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6763
• State rank: #559 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wilmer

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1054
• US rank: #18696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wilmer, TX
• City population: 5,873
• Population (ZIP): 5,873

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% Black 31% White 22% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 46%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.73%
• Current HPI: 221.1676
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+80.9% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-03-23 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-16 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $199,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $204,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $209,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $214,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $219,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $224,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-10 Listed $229,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-02 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $219,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-21 Listed $229,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-15 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $227,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-31 Price Changed $228,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-22 Price Changed $228,500 NTREIS
• 2025-01-30 Price Changed $229,500 NTREIS
• 2025-01-23 Price Changed $237,500 NTREIS
• 2025-01-16 Price Changed $238,500 NTREIS
• 2025-01-10 Price Changed $239,500 NTREIS
• 2025-01-01 Listed $249,000 NTREIS
• 2022-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-09-30 Listed — NTREIS
• 2021-09-29 Listed $110,000 NTREIS
• 2021-09-29 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2018-05-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,977 · +24.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.