2306 Ronald Dr · Mills, MI 48756

$69,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 568 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1950 0.77 ac lot $123/sqft · 43% above area Est $52k · 36% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CUTE ONE BEDROOM COTTAGE on 4 lots, totaling just over 3/4 acre! Home sits on one lot and the other 3 are vacant and nicely wooded. There is a nice deck for relaxing while you watch the wildlife, a fire pit and a shed for additional storage. A new roof on the home was installed approximately 6 years ago and the full bath has been updated. Sits at the end of road for some privacy and would make a quaint getaway or cozy year-round residence.

Key facts

• One bedroom cottage
• Fire pit
• New roof

Tags

• ONE BEDROOM COTTAGE
• 4 LOTS
• VACANT AND NICELY WOODED
• FIRE PIT
• SHED FOR ADDITIONAL STORAGE
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($775 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Whittemore-Prescott Area Schools (rural): math 11% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #488 of 540 in MI (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 57 units permitted in Ogemaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ogemaw County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $70k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.40%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $51,505
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: 35.72%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-534
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $13,395
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48756

• Home prices YoY: -9.7%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $775 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $563/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$163
• Net cashflow: $170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $560

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,900 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,900 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $69,900 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-04-11
    listed $69,900 Active 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    CUTE ONE BEDROOM COTTAGE on 4 lots, totaling just over 3/4 acre! Home sits on one lot and the other 3 are vacant and nicely wooded. There is a nice deck for relaxing while you watch the wildlife, a fire pit and a shed for additional storage. A new roof on the home was installed approximately 6 years ago and the full bath has been updated. Sits at the end of road for some privacy and would make a quaint getaway or cozy year-round residence.

17. 2022-10-24
    soldstatus $30,000 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    CUTE ONE BEDROOM COTTAGE on 4 lots, totaling just over 3/4 acre! Home sits on one lot and the other 3 are vacant and nicely wooded. There is a nice deck for relaxing while you watch the wildlife, a fire pit and a shed for additional storage. A new roof on the home was installed approximately 5 years ago and the full bath has been remodeled. Sits at the end of road for some privacy and would make a quaint getaway or cozy year round residence.

18. 2022-10-24
    soldstatus $30,000

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    CUTE ONE BEDROOM COTTAGE on 4 lots, totaling just over 3/4 acre! Home sits on one lot and the other 3 are vacant and nicely wooded. There is a nice deck for relaxing while you watch the wildlife, a fire pit and a shed for additional storage. A new roof on the home was installed approximately 5 years ago and the full bath has been remodeled. Sits at the end of road for some privacy and would make a quaint getaway or cozy year round residence.

19. 2022-10-11
    listed $39,900 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    CUTE ONE BEDROOM COTTAGE on 4 lots, totaling just over 3/4 acre! Home sits on one lot and the other 3 are vacant and nicely wooded. There is a nice deck for relaxing while you watch the wildlife, a fire pit and a shed for additional storage. A new roof on the home was installed approximately 5 years ago and the full bath has been remodeled. Sits at the end of road for some privacy and would make a quaint getaway or cozy year round residence.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $563 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $820 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$257/yr (+$21/mo · 45.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$563
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$744
• − Management: −$744
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $951
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$228
• After-tax cash flow: $1,808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Whittemore-Prescott Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2636390
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $30,244
• Composite: 14.31/100
• National rank: #9442
• State rank: #488 of 540 in MI

Livability — Mills

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Skidway Lake, MI
• Population (ZIP): 3,939

Population outlook (Ogemaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,373 people
• By 2030: 18,348 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 16,176 · -16.5%
• By 2050: 14,294 · -26.2%
• By 2075: 11,280 · -41.8%
• By 2100: 8,942 · -53.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ogemaw

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.0) · D 28.4% · R 70.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.4pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.0 2020: R+40.1 2016: R+36.6 2012: R+6.2 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.88%
• Current HPI: 213.8025
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+75.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $69,900 REALCOMP
• 2022-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-24 Sold (MLS) $30,000 REALCOMP
• 2022-10-11 Listed $39,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $563 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.